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No Recovery for Young People?

In July 2013, just 36 percent of Americans age 16-24 not enrolled in school worked full-time, 10 percent less than in July 2007. It’s no secret that young people are struggling economically, but my analysis of Friday’s BLS release sheds light to what extent. The fact that so many young people are not realizing their true earnings potential in these formative years could have serious long-term consequences.

Friday’s numbers are the latest sign the recovery is passing young Americans by. The below chart shows the share of young Americans not enrolled in school working full-time fell with the recession and have yet to return to 2007 levels. This is true even if we divide it by age – that is, for both young Americans age 16-19 and age 20-24 not enrolled in school in July.

While the initial drop in full-time employment is not surprising, what is startling is that is that either age group is showing much, if any, improvement since the recovery began four years ago. The same trend holds even if we look at months where more students are enrolled in school (i.e., January). The non-recovery is also true if we look at total employment and overall labor force participation.

What’s more, education matters in how likely young people are to work full-time. As shown in the next chart, for those with less than a high school diploma, 14 percent worked full-time, compared to 66 percent with a Bachelor’s degree or higher. This re-emphasizes the importance of higher education in successfully finding full-time work in today’s economy.

Of the 17 million Americans age 16-24 not enrolled in school or working full-time in July 2013, 5.6 million were working part-time, 3.2 million were unemployed – a 17.1 percent unemployment rate – and another 8.4 million were not in the labor force altogether.

Together, these charts suggest the problem facing young Americans is structural. If worsening labor market conditions were a temporary effect of the recession, we would have expected to see improvement with the recovery. Instead, young Americans appear stuck in their post-recessionary state.

What could be behind the stubborn labor market for young Americans? One explanation is the Great Squeeze, which I’ve written about before. The dearth of middle-skill jobs is forcing workers unqualified for today’s high-skill, high-wage jobs to take lower skill jobs for less pay, squeezing those with less education and experience down and out of the workforce.

The struggles facing young Americans should not be ignored. It’s clear the policies in place now to prepare and integrate young Americans into the workforce are not sufficient. If we are serious about moving from a slow-growth economy to a high-growth economy, it’s something policymakers will have to address.

Note: For those interested in the effect of rising college enrollment on overall labor force participation of young people, there are several points to consider. One, in July most college students are not enrolled, and would be counted here. Second, the number of young Americans age 16-24 not enrolled in school and not working continues to rise. In July 2007 labor force participation for this group was 73.3 percent; in July 2013 it was 68.8 percent. Third, college enrollment has actually been falling for the last two years, with the decline actually accelerating. Finally, many college students also work. According to the same BLS data 42 percent of people age 16-24 enrolled in school also were in the labor force in July 2013.


2 responses to “No Recovery for Young People?”

  1. Handle

    Great article:

    I think it would be good to point out that this isn’t just a summer phenomenon. The BLS and CPS numbers aren’t seasonally adjusted, and so there’s a giant shift in the summer months. Here’s a comparison with April (Not Enrolled / Full Time / %):

    APRIL JULY
    2007 15,853 / 9,317 / 59% 23,955 / 11,364 / 47%
    2013 16187 / 7,724 / 48% 26,872 / 9,770 / 36%

    So the difference is 11% for both months. Can we identify the ‘missing 11%’? We can. 11% of July 2013 would be about 3M

    Take a look at “Less than a High School Diploma” (FT / NE / %)

    In July 2007 – 1,918 / 7,686 / 25%
    In July 2013 – 997 / 7,092 / 13%

    There’s an (adjusted) million or so right there. The most dramatic drops are for Men, 20-24, with High School degree or less. With Bachelor’s Degree or higher seem to be doing very well. But for the lesser-educated young male crowd, the full-time-employment situation is pretty bleak.

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