There are three actual elections this week: party primaries in Indiana, Ohio and North Carolina, all on May 4. The Republicans are offering the main show in the Hoosier State, with former Sen. Dan Coats trying to hold off hard-right challenges for another Senate nomination from former U.S. Rep. John Hostettler and state senator Marlin Stutzman. Hostettler has a well-established following among Indiana conservatives (but not much money), while Stutzman is benefitting from national right-wing support, notably from Sen. Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservative Fund, RedState.org and Mike Huckabee. But a Survey USA poll that came out last week gives Coats a significant lead (36 percent for Coats, 24 percent for Hostettler and 18 percent for Stutzman) as his rivals split the True Conservative vote. The same poll shows all three handily defeating Democrat Brad Ellsworth at this point in the cycle.
In a House primary with less ideological freight than the Senate race, Indiana Republican Rep. Mark Souder, a member of the class of ’94, appears in danger of being upset by self-funding opponent Bob Thomas.
Over in Ohio, the Democratic Senate primary pits Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, a long-time statewide elected official, against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Fisher has had a big financial advantage and labor support, while Brunner has drawn a lot of attention from the progressive netroots. But a new Suffolk University poll last week shows Fisher building a big (55 percent – 27 percent) lead as Election Day nears. Both Democrats have been running even with or ahead of Republican nominee Rob Portman, in a seat being vacated by Republican George Voinovich (one of those oft-forgotten Dem opportunities that could offset likely losses).
And in North Carolina, a big field of Democrats is competing for the chance to take on Republican Sen. Richard Burr, one of those GOPers who looked pretty vulnerable early in this cycle. It’s been a relatively low-key primary and turnout is expected to be very low. The two long-time front-runners, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and former state senator Cal Cunningham are both expected to fall short of the 40 percent of the vote needed to avoid a June 22 runoff. Marshall has drawn some netroots support, while Cunningham was reportedly lured into the race by D.C. Democrats who felt Marshall wasn’t electable. A third candidate, Ken Lewis, an African American attorney, could do well enough to become a big factor in the runoff.
The one new survey to come out over the weekend provided some expected bad news for Democrats in Hawaii. The winner-take-all special election to replace Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie (who resigned to run for governor) is favoring the one Republican in the race over two Democrats, according to a Honolulu Advertiser poll, which shows former Honolulu city councilman Charles Djou with 36 percent, former U.S. Rep. Ed Case with 28 percent and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa with 22 percent. Djou would probably have little chance of holding onto the seat in a regular general election in November, but it’s still a loss that House Democrats could do without.
Finally, because today’s crazy state legislative proposals are often tomorrow’s campaign issues, you should check out Jillian Rayfield’s useful summary of nutty offerings from America’s statehouse solons at TalkingPointsMemo. Lowlights include an advance nullification measure that some Minnesota Republicans are pushing; a global warming denial measure in South Dakota; Georgia’s action to reestablish the important right to bring shooting irons into airports; and Arizona’s far-sighted stand against the breeding of human-animal hybrids. There’s also a sobering roundup of the latest state efforts to chip away at abortion rights.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Monday and Friday.