On Tuesday, Alabamans will troop back to the polls for primary runoff elections, with nationally significant contests including the Republican race for governor and two congressional races (Republicans in AL-02 and Democrats in AL-07).
Alabama is the rare state that allows voters to participate in a Democratic primary and then vote in a Republican runoff (the reverse is not, however, allowed). With no Democratic gubernatorial runoff, hopes or fears of Democratic crossover has been a major factor in the Republican contest. That’s mainly a function of the longstanding feud between first-place primary finisher Bradley Byrne and the Alabama Education Association, the NEA affiliate that most teachers in the state belong to. Byrne has sought to make his hatred of “union bosses” and particularly AEA the main issue in the runoff, and accuses his opponent, state representative Robert Bentley, of being AEA’s stooge (Bentley did receive a campaign contribution from AEA, and voted with the association on some key legislative issues). Dr. Bentley, whose second-place primary finish (narrowly defeating Tim James and then surviving a recount) was the biggest surprise of that evening, could benefit from a crossover vote, some of it from teachers resentful of Byrne’s endless AEA-bashing, some from his above-the-fray, feel-good message that drew much of its power from the nastiness of the Byrne-James rivalry.
Byrne won 28 percent in the primary to Bentley’s 25 percent. More importantly, he did best in the high-population counties along I-65 (e.g., Mobile, Montgomery, Jefferson, Madison) where the most reliable Republican voters live. Long the favorite of the Alabama business community, Byrne has had a fundraising advantage in the runoff. (Bentley, a prominent dermatologist who once treated Bear Bryant, has self-financed much of his own campaign) Byrne’s other advantage is historical: first-place primary finishers usually win Alabama runoffs.
But the one independent poll (commissioned by an Alabama firm, Public Strategy Associates) released so far shows Bentley with a 53-33 lead. Byrne has challenged the objectivity of this poll, and claims his own internal polls show him up by 4 points. Most independent observers expect a close race, with the size and shape of the runoff electorate being the key variable. The big intangible is whether Byrne’s efforts to tie Bentley to AEA work or backfire. During the primary campaign, Byrne similarly linked Tim James to AEA, and while James is officially neutral in the runoff, his campaign manager has endorsed Bentley.
Waiting in the wings is Democratic nominee Ron Sparks, who could benefit from any bad blood developed during the GOP primary and runoff.
The one big Democratic contest that could draw a lot of voters otherwise available to cross over to the GOP runoff is in Artur Davis’ 7th congressional district, where first-place primary finisher Terri Sewell, a Birmingham bond attorney originally from Selma, faces Jefferson County (Birmingham) commissioner Sheila Smoot. Both candidates are African-Americans, and the survivor is certain to win the general election. The third-place finisher, Earl Hilliard, Jr., is neutral in the runoff, but a political group that endorsed him in the primary, the Alabama New South Coalition, has now endorsed Sewell, while another African-American political group, the Alabama Democratic Conference, which was neutral in the primary, has now endorsed Smoot. Turnout is likely to be dominated by Jefferson County, where there are a number of runoffs for local offices. Sewell has to be rated the favorite given her strong performance in the primary.
Republicans have their own red-hot congressional runoff in the southeast Alabama 2nd congressional district, where first-place primary finisher Martha Roby, the GOP establishment favorite, is trying to hold off a challenge from Tea Party activist Rick Barber. Barber has received a lot of national attention for a viral internet ad entitled “Gather Your Armies,” which appears to suggest that the Founding Fathers would favor another American revolution against the Obama administration. But Roby, who received 48 percent of the vote in the primary, is likely to win.
In polling news, Rasmussen has a survey of West Virginians testing a hypothetical 2010 special election to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (Gov. Joe Manchin is awaiting an attorney general’s ruling on whether he could move the special election up from 2012 to this November). It shows Manchin as a solid favorite over the two likeliest Republican opponents, but also indicates strong opposition to the idea of Manchin appointing himself to the job first. An early PPP poll on Kentucky’s 2011 gubernatorial race shows incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear with better approval ratios than in the recent past, and now running essentially even with two likely Republican opponents.
And in poll-related news, Huffington Post has acquired the popular poll results and analysis site Pollster.com from its prior owner, YouGov/Polimetrix (which published the site through National Journal). Political junkies will inevitably compare this development to the recently announced partnership between the New York Times and another poll-and-numbers-focused internet site, FiveThirtyEight (where, in full disclosure, I am a regular contributor).
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday
