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WHAT THEY MEAN:

Governor Bradford remembers the first Thanksgiving in 1621:

“They [the fifty Pilgrims who had survived the first winter] begane now to gather in ye small harvest they had, and to fitte up their houses and dwellings against winter, being all well recovered in health & strenght, and had all things in good plenty; fFor as some were thus imployed in affairs abroad, others were excersised in fishing, aboute codd, & bass, & other fish, of which yey tooke good store, of which every family had their portion. All ye somer ther was no want. And now begane to come in store of foule, as winter approached, of which this place did abound when they came first (but afterward decreased by degrees). And besids water foule, ther was great store of wild Turkies, of which they tooke many, besids venison, &c. Besids, they had about a peck a meale a weeke to a person, or now since harvest, Indean corn to yt proportion. Which made many afterwards write so largly of their plenty hear to their freinds in England, which were not fained, but true reports.”

Bradford’s Pilgrims and their “some ninety” Wampanoag guests relied on the autumn fish, berries, birds, vegetables, corn, and game of early New England. Tomorrow’s Thanksgiving celebrants can pick from the same options: 21st-century New England has 30,700 farms on 3.75 million acres of land.  They sell $3.2 billion worth of produce annually, with Massachusetts bogs topping the U.S. in cranberries, Maine leading for blueberries and lobster, and Vermont for maple sugar. Native Americans likewise operate 56,000 farms and ranches (mostly in the West), producing $2.4 billion in crops and $6 billion in livestock each year. More broadly, American Thanksgivings draw in food from 1.9 million American farms and ranches, and more from the world beyond. The turkey and cranberry sauce are still mostly American birds and berries – Minnesota and North Carolina are the largest turkey-breeders – but they often find complements in Australian and Argentine beef, Thai and Ecuadoran shrimp, Irish and New Zealand butter, Mexican cilantro and avocado, South African wines and oranges, Canadian wheat and beer, Chilean berries and Peruvian vegetables, Sri Lankan tea and Colombian coffee, and West African chocolate. A bit of background to this:

Food-buying and spending: The World Trade Organization’s World Trade Statistics 2023 finds the U.S. the second-largest buyer of agricultural goods at $241 billion last year, behind China’s $285 billion and a bit above the EU’s $213 billion. (The U.K. and Japan are next at $86 billion and $84 billion.) This dazzling array of stuff looks pricy, but in a more realistic sense, it’s gotten steadily cheaper. As food-buying has “globalized,” as tariffs have fallen, and as shipping and cold-chain storage techniques have improved, Americans have spent steadily less of their money on food. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent Consumer Expenditure Survey, for example, reports that 9.8% of American family budgets now go to food — a drop of 28% since 2000, of half since the 1970s, and three-quarters over the last century.

Production and exports: And what about the producers? The 1.9 million U.S. farms and ranches top the WTO’s list of exporters with $198 billion in overseas sales last year – 1.2 billion from New England – and typically get a fifth of their income from foreign customers.  USDA’s database reports that U.S. farms and ranches annually ship out 190 million tons of food — soybeans, and wheat for Asian noodle shops, fresh vegetables for Latin America, corn for Mexican bakeries, beef and pork for the world, and 500 million pounds of turkey.  Here’s USDA’s businesslike 21st-century counterpoint to Governor Bradford:

“With U.S. agricultural output growing faster than domestic demand for many products, U.S. farmers and agricultural firms have been relying on export markets to sustain prices and revenues. As a result, U.S. agricultural exports have grown steadily over the past 25 years—reaching $174 billion in 2023, up from $57.3 billion in 1998.  The product composition of agricultural exports shifted over that 25-year span, reflecting changes in global supply and demand. Most notably, exports of consumer-oriented products—including high-value products (HVP) such as dairy products, meats, fruits, and vegetables—showed strong growth driven by increasing population and income worldwide, as well as a growing diversification of diet.”

So, with families spending less of their income on food, farmers shipping more high-value stuff abroad, and lots on the table tomorrow, we have much to be grateful for this week. We wish readers and friends a happy Thanksgiving Day.

FURTHER READING

Then & now:

Plymouth’s Pilgrim Hall Museum has the two surviving records of the first Thanksgiving, with Governor Bradford on food and Edward Winslow on Massasoit and his warriors.

The heirs of Massasoit at the Mashpee/Taunton Wampanoag Nation.

Native agriculture today:

Per USDA, 78,316 Native American producers operate 56,000 farms and ranches on 52.6 million acres of land, with $2.8 billion worth of crops and $3.4 billion in livestock annually.  The largest output is in Oklahoma and Arizona. Native American farmers are slightly younger than the average U.S. farm owner — 11% are 35 or younger and 34% over 65, as opposed to 9% below 35 and 38% above 65 for U.S. farmers in general — and are more likely to use farming as the main source of family income. A somewhat larger share of Native farm owners are women. USDA on 21st-century Native farm and ranch life.

The Inter-tribal Agricultural Council, based in Billings, Montana, promotes tribal farm and fishery exports.

And for DC residents and visitors, Mitsitam Café at the Museum of the American Indian has menus and material, as well as meals, on contemporary Native American farming and products.

Family spending on food:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey reports spending patterns by family type, income level, race and ethnicity, and more for 2023.

… and looks back over the Survey’s 130 years with figures on incomes and spending for 1901, 1918, 1934-1936, 1950, 1960, 1972-73, 1984-1985, and 1996-1997:

The Department of Agriculture looks at American farming and ag trade –

The Census of Agriculture 2022, released last February.

… a stat-snapshot of 21st-century New England farming, from berries and maple syrup to mink.

… a look at American agricultural trade and its place in farming and the rural economy.

… and the “Global Agricultural Trade System” database.

And world perspective:

The WTO’s World Trade Statistics 2024; see Tables 13 and 14 for food and ag trade export and import leaders. A quick table of top exporters:

ABOUT ED

Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.

Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.

Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.

Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.

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