Led by a divisive and dissembling president, America appears to have arrived at peak polarization. At first glance, that would seem to favor Republicans, who dominate Washington and most state governments. But as next month’s midterm elections are likely to show, President Trump’s divide-and-conquer tactics are driving the GOP into a political box canyon.
His strategy is brutally simple: convince culturally insecure white Americans that they are losing “their” country to minorities, immigrants and politically correct liberals. Trump’s scare tactics enabled him to secure a victory in the Electoral College in 2016, despite losing the popular vote by nearly three million votes. Since then, however, he’s done nothing to expand his party’s appeal.
By doubling down on his fractious formula of nativism, white identity politics and America First nationalism, Trump has tightened his grip on blue-collar whites and evangelical Christians — and on Republican politicians terrified of getting crosswise with pro-Trump zealots. But Trump’s White House reality show appears to be hurting GOP candidates in some places, especially white-collar suburbs.
Polls show that Democrats are poised to claim many of the 25 GOP-held House Districts Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. In 21 of these mostly suburban districts, reports The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein, Trump’s approval rating is an abysmal 38%. “Not only did a staggering 70% of college-educated white women in these districts disapprove of Trump’s performance, but so did 58% of college-educated white men, usually a reliable Republican constituency,” notes Brownstein.
