Summary: Because of their mixed urban/rural nature, swing states are a magnet for digital “tech-ecommerce” jobs. Democrats should consider building their 2022 political narrative around support for the digital economy, which brings strong job growth, higher wages, and lower inflation to swing states.
1. This piece is primarily economic, not political. But to focus our analysis, we start with a list of eight potential 2022 Senate swing states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Adding or subtracting a state from this list doesn’t change the analysis appreciably.
2. For the most part, swing state employment is still below pre-pandemic levels, creating a handicap for the party in power. For example, Wisconsin had 260,000 fewer private sector jobs in November 2021 than in November 2019. The only swing state above pre-pandemic employment levels is Arizona.
3. Average hourly wage growth has significantly lagged national inflation in most swing states, That means real wages are falling on average in the swing states, an obstacle to making a positive economic argument. Once again, there is one exception, North Carolina.
4. However, voters in most swing states are benefiting from exceptionally dynamic job creation in the digital “tech-ecommerce” sector. The reason is not hard to understand. Swing states, by their nature, tend to have a mixed urban/rural character. Not surprisingly, ecommerce fulfillment centers are often sited in areas that are within easy driving distance of large populations but where land is relatively cheap, making them a good match for swing states. Similarly, software and internet operations looking to broaden out from the Bay Area and Boston will pick cheaper locations near to good urban amenities.
5. Digital employers gravitated to swing states during the Biden Administration. From the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2021, the most recent data available, swing states showed a 14% gain in tech-ecommerce jobs By comparison, the rest of the country only showed an 8% gain in tech-ecommerce jobs over the same period.
6. We’ve bolded the key numbers in the table below, which lays out the job gains by digital industry. Ecommerce fulfillment and warehousing jobs registered a 22% gain in the swing states, almost double the 12% gain in the rest of the country. The same thing held true for the electronic shopping industry (which mainly consists of those establishments that are in the technology end of electronic shopping but don’t do fulfillment). Also showing strong swing state growth was internet publishing, which also includes search and other “internet-type” companies.
By contrast, job growth in manufacturing and healthcare was weaker in the swing states than the rest of the country. These states see their future in tech and ecommerce.
| Table 1. Swing States Lead In Digital Growth | ||
| Employment change, 20Q2-21Q2 | ||
| Swing states | Other states | |
| Computer and electronic manufacturing | -1.6% | -0.4% |
| Electronic shopping | 18.5% | 11.8% |
| Local delivery | 12.4% | 13.9% |
| Ecommerce fulfillment and warehousing | 22.1% | 12.3% |
| Software publishing | 11.8% | 8.7% |
| Data hosting | 12.6% | 6.1% |
| Internet publishing and other information services | 14.6% | 6.1% |
| Computer software systems | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Tech-ecommerce (total) | 14.0% | 8.1% |
| Private | 11.2% | 10.6% |
| Manufacturing | 5.0% | 6.1% |
| Healthcare and social assistance | 5.6% | 6.4% |
7. What are the positive economic stories in individual swing states? Digital employers in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are adding digital jobs at a faster rate than private sector jobs. Voters in North Carolina, for example, have benefited from 20% growth in tech-ecommerce jobs, almost double private sector job growth.
| Table 2. Digital Jobs Drive Swing State Growth | ||
| Employment change, 20Q2-21Q2 | ||
| Tech-ecommerce | Private sector | |
| Arizona | 16.7% | 8.6% |
| Florida | 18.2% | 10.8% |
| Georgia | 8.6% | 10.4% |
| Nevada | 24.6% | 21.4% |
| New Hampshire | 8.4% | 13.4% |
| North Carolina | 20.3% | 11.5% |
| Pennsylvania | 7.8% | 12.4% |
| Wisconsin | 10.2% | 9.1% |
| Swing states | 14.0% | 11.2% |
| All other states | 8.1% | 10.6% |
8. A strong economic narrative around digital growth in the swing states depends on wages as well. On average, tech-ecommerce jobs pay significantly more than the average for the private sector in every swing state. For example, in the second quarter of 2021, tech-ecommerce workers in swing states got paid at an average annual rate of $81,000, 39% more than the private sector average of $58,000. This includes the full range of tech-ecommerce jobs, from software developers to fulfillment center workers.
| Table 3. Workers in Digital Jobs Are Paid More on Average | ||
| Annual pay, thousands of dollars, based on 21Q2 | ||
| Tech-ecommerce | Private sector | |
| Arizona | 76 | 59 |
| Florida | 81 | 57 |
| Georgia | 83 | 60 |
| Nevada | 65 | 57 |
| New Hampshire | 111 | 71 |
| North Carolina | 86 | 57 |
| Pennsylvania | 81 | 62 |
| Wisconsin | 77 | 53 |
| Swing states | 81 | 58 |
| All other states | 123 | 66 |
| All other states except California and Washington | 96 | 62 |
9. The core of the tech-ecommerce job boom in the swing states is the expansion of ecommerce jobs. These jobs pay well for high-school educated workers. Amazon pays its starting distribution workers an average of $18 per hour. That’s roughly comparable to starting manufacturing wages in many parts of the country. Overall, ecommerce industries pay about 30% more than brick-and-mortar retail in swing states, on average. This is at the heart of a powerful political narrative of growth that creates better jobs.
| Table 4. Ecommerce Industries Pay More than Brick-and-Mortar Retail | ||
| 21Q2 pay in thousands at annual rates | ||
| Ecommerce industries | Brick-and-mortar retail | |
| Arizona | 48 | 41 |
| Florida | 49 | 39 |
| Georgia | 45 | 36 |
| Nevada | 46 | 39 |
| New Hampshire | 57 | 38 |
| North Carolina | 40 | 35 |
| Pennsylvania | 51 | 34 |
| Wisconsin | 45 | 31 |
| Swing states | 47 | 37 |
| Other states | 62 | 38 |
| Other states ex California and Washington | 51 | 37 |
10. Democrats have a chance to build a powerful economic narrative around strong digital growth in swing states. They should embrace this opportunity.
