On one level, Rick Santorum’s campaign got a desperately needed boost from his win in Louisiana’s primary last Saturday. But all the other signs about the campaign indicate a party ready to end the primary season.
Santorum got his ideal electorate in Louisiana, a low-turnout affair in which half the voters were self-identified “very conservative” voters, and half called themselves “strong supporters” of the Tea Party movement. Two-thirds say they attend worship services weekly or more.
Just as importantly, Newt Gingrich, who was running very well in Louisiana polls not that long ago, saw his support-levels shrink along with his campaign budget.
So Santorum won easily, and even won among Catholic voters for the first time in this cycle. Romney did carry urban areas, as usual. And more importantly, Louisiana’s delegate selection rules limited Santorum’s primary-night haul significantly, since only 20 of the state’s 46 delegates were at stake.
But on Thursday, two days before Louisiana Republicans went to the polls, Santorum was sent a very ominous signal by Sen. Jim DeMint, who is the closest thing around to an acknowledged leader of “movement conservatives” in the GOP:
“I can tell conservatives from my perspective is that, I’m not only comfortable with Romney, I’m excited about the possibility of him possibly being our nominee,” DeMint said. “Again, this is not a formal endorsement and I do not intend to do that right now but I just think we just need to look at where we are….”
“I think we all need to look at this presidential primary and encourage the candidates to do a little self-reflection here—what’s good for our country,” said DeMint. “The sooner we can make a decision, I think the sooner we can focus on the real problem which is Obama.”
It’s hard to say when this kind of high sign will trickle down to the grassroots conservative activists who are keeping Santorum’s campaign alive. For that matter, Newt Gingrich won’t go away, either, though his Super-PAC sugar daddy Sheldon Adelson has said Newt’s “at the end of his line,” and he’s reduced to calling for bizarre convention scenarios since he doesn’t have the resources to win delegates.
According to CNN’s estimates, Romney now has 569 delegates (almost exactly half the 1144 needed for final victory) while his opponents have a combined 469. The calendar now shifts to an April calendar heavily favoring the front-runner, with the exception of two states—Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—where Santorum has been the favorite. But two new polls in Wisconsin show Romney moving into a solid lead there, while another shows him even with Santorum in his home state of Pennsylvania. Since Wisconsin is next on the calendar, next Tuesday, a big Romney win could definitely raise new calls for Santorum to pack it in.
Still another problem for Santorum is that the presidential nominating race is now drawing significantly less media attention, reducing his opportunities for earned coverage. At least one veteran political reporter, Walter Shapiro, is arguing that the chattering classes have rushed to judgment before Romney has actually won the nomination, effectively disenfranchising future GOP primary voters (I’ve done a partial rebuttal here).
A more obvious challenge for Santorum is the massive media attention currently being paid to non-campaign events, particularly the Supreme Court’s consideration of constitutional challenges to the Affordable Care and Patient Protection Act. Since the oral arguments before the Court have shaken earlier assumptions that ObamaCare would comfortably survive the challenge, the (roughly) three months that will elapse before we can expect a decision will make speculation on the subject a continuing subject of major media attention.
A closely related issue is whether an adverse Court decision could significantly affect the presidential general election. That’s not easy to answer. You could argue that this development would ease some conservative fears that Mitt Romney as president might not act quickly or definitively to repeal ObamaCare. But on the other hand, such an action would also draw fresh attention to the “Replace” part of the GOP “Repeal-and-Replace” agenda for health care, which might particularly call into question the willingness and ability of Republicans to implement such popular reforms as a ban on insurance company rate and access discrimination against people with preexisting conditions.
More generally, there are signs that a combination of dynamics are taking a toll on putative nominee Mitt Romney’s general election standing. A new ABC/WaPo poll this week showed his favorable/unfavorable ratios deteriorating to unprecedented levels, particularly among independents and self-identified moderates. The crux is that Romney has every reason to want a quick liquidation of the nomination contest—that is, before his numbers sink along with the rest of the Republican field.
Photo Credit: Cabbit