It appeared that the 2012 Republican presidential nominating process would come to a formal close this week (given Ron Paul’s lack of interest in officially withdrawing until the Convention), and after Newt Gingrich broadly hinted he needed an upset win in Delaware to stay in the race. He subsequently lost by 29 points, and indicated he intended to withdraw quite soon. Instead, he decamped to North Carolina, and for all the world looked like he was continuing the campaign, albeit in a desultory manner. But now comes word that his Secret Service Protection has been withdrawn, making his continued campaigning look even more absurd, so he’ll probably pull the plug before running up even more debts.
Speaking of North Carolina, the president was in Chapel Hill this week in an appearance (subsequently attacked by Republican groups, in what was probably just a shot across the bow, that he was misusing official resources for a de facto campaign appearance) that illustrated the interaction of various issues in potentially close states this year. He spoke to a receptive campus crowd about his proposal to retain a freeze on student loan interest rates, currently the subject of complex partisan maneuvering in Congress. But he did not speak of an issue on the minds of many college students in the state: Amendment One, the draconian constitutional amendment banning not only same-sex marriage but legal recognition of all same-sex relationships, which will appear on the North Carolina primary ballot on May 8.
The initiative has been leading in most polls, but the gap is narrowing as voters begin to comprehend that it’s not just a “gay marriage ban.” Opponents had hoped a clear explanation from Obama might improve public understanding and tilt the balance, but the president (who has released a statement opposing Amendment One) seems to have decided either that his personal intervention might backfire or that his own general-election coalition in North Carolina might be damaged (African-Americans in this state as elsewhere are closely divided on same-sex marriage). In any event, Obama may eventually have to deal more directly with ambiguities about his “evolving” position on the underlying issue, thanks to the growing campaign to place support for marriage equality in the 2012 Democratic platform.
General election polling this week generally showed the return of a small but steady lead for Obama after what looked like a brief Romney surge. Interestingly, given the steady drumbeat of Republican analysis insisting that the election would be strictly a referendum on the president’s job performance, a growing number of GOP elected officials and commentators have begun imploring Romney to run a more positive and issue-specific campaign.
One particular challenge to the presumptive Republican nominee is to improve his appeal to Hispanic voters, given his hard-line positioning on the immigration issue during the nomination contest and his continuing need to repair relations with conservatives. Sen. Marco Rubio is developing a “GOP alternative to the Dream Act” that might help his party take the next step away from perceptions of anti-Hispanic bias, but Romney has been reluctant so far to embrace it. The attention being drawn to the landmark Arizona immigration enforcement law (with which Romney is closely associated) by this week’s Supreme Court’s oral arguments over its constitutionality may add to the pressure on Romney to clarify his position.
Photo Credit: U.S. Army
