In August of last year, President Biden announced an ambitious plan to wipe out more than $400 billion of student loan debt for the nation’s borrowers. Individuals with incomes below $125,000 (and couples with combined incomes below $250,000) could receive up to $10,000 of loan forgiveness, with former Pell Grant recipients receiving up to $20,000. Speaking about his plan less than a week before the midterm elections, the president made it clear who he was trying to help.
“I want to state again who will benefit most: working people and middle-class folks,” he declared in a speech at Central New Mexico Community College (CNMCC).
Given the skyrocketing costs of higher education, some borrowers — particularly those with low incomes and those who were scammed by for-profit colleges — genuinely need assistance. But portraying student loan forgiveness as a working-class issue is highly misleading. In fact, data on student borrowing shows that debt relief benefits few working-class families, most of whom never attended college in the first place.
This paper dives deeply into the evidence on the economic impact of student loan forgiveness. As the paper shows, proposals from political progressives to forgive all student loan debt (or large amounts such as $50,000 of debt) overwhelmingly benefit affluent Americans. President Biden departed from these more elitist proposals, yet his decision to forgive even a more limited amount is still puzzling. At a time when the economic returns to education are rising and the Democratic Party is losing noncollege voters, it makes little sense to target government aid to people who attended college.
The noncollege workers who do not benefit from the President’s plan are certainly in greater need of support than student loan borrowers.
The paper goes on to examine the question of why the Democratic Party — traditionally the party of working-class people — has become so focused on canceling student loans. One possibility is that Democratic lawmakers are ensconced in a D.C. bubble. The nation’s highest student loan balances are found in Washington, and these borrowers would benefit more from President Biden’s forgiveness plan than borrowers in 49 out of 50 states. In short, many in the party establishment seem to be conflating the problems of highly educated college graduates — an elite class of Americans — with those of working-class people.
This is not to deny that the cost of college has become a significant problem in recent decades. Over the past 19 years, consumer prices have risen 59%, and per capita personal incomes have doubled (in nominal dollars). By contrast, prices for college textbooks have risen 122%, and college tuition (net of grant aid) has gone up 124%.6 This means that a typical family would have found it more difficult to finance a college education in 2022 than in 2003. Some students understandably forego college entirely, while those who attend are stuck with high bills.
Unsurprisingly, many households have turned to the student loan system. Between the first quarter of 2003 and the fourth quarter of 2022, student loan debt held by consumers increased from $392 billion to $1.6 trillion (in inflation-adjusted dollars).7 Student loans also rose from 3.3% of all consumer debt to 9.4% over the same period.
However, the financial burdens of college do not justify widespread student debt relief. If funded through higher taxes, the costs of student loan cancellation will be borne by taxpayers; if funded through higher borrowing, loan cancellation will increase economic demand, thereby raising prices for consumers. Either way, the cost of student debt cancellation will fall on members of the general public, most of whom do not have four-year degrees.
There are better ways of helping working-class Americans. As the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) has advocated, the government should invest more in apprenticeships, job training, and career pathways for noncollege workers, who generally have lower wages than college-educated workers. Lawmakers should also dramatically increase the size of the Pell Grant (thus helping students from low-income families) and craft policies aimed at reducing administrative bloat at universities (which would reduce expenses and thus tuition). These policies would boost the employment and wages of noncollege workers while also making college more affordable for ordinary families.
It’s no secret that Democrats have lost support among working-class voters in recent elections. Forgiving student debt only reifies the image of Democrats as beholden to the interests of the educational elite. Until the party puts forth pragmatic solutions to the pocketbook issues facing ordinary people, they are likely to continue losing ground among the exact voters Democrats claim to support.
