Next week, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates will sit down with his Chinese counterpart, General Liang Guanglie, in Hanoi. Relations between China and the US – at least militarily – have been frosty recently after the US inked an arms deal with Taiwan. This meeting would suggest that no matter how upset either side becomes, each realizes that their long-term interests are better served by dialogue, not confrontation.
The talks take place as China is attempting to consolidate a sphere of influence over the South and East China Seas. It’s likely that China views these areas as part of an “anti-access/area denial” strategy. Beijing realizes that its military couldn’t prevail in a conflict against the United States, but by controlling these strategic bodies of water, it could deny American access to them in the event of conflict over Taiwan.
The good news is that your buddies at PPI are all over it. We’ve teamed up with Mike Chase, a professor at the Naval War College and fellow at the Truman National Security project, to produce a policy memo on China’s anti-access/area denial strategy.
He seeks to answer the following questions:
He concludes:
Beijing responded by increasing its defense budget, deploying conventional ballistic missiles across from Taiwan and working on a variety of capabilities intended to target American aircraft carriers. In short, Beijing embraced technologies designed to limit America’s access to critical battlefield areas.
[…]
An AA/AD strategy has limits. Though AA/AD raises the barrier on a decision to use force, once a decision to use force is made, China could not count on prevailing quickly or at low cost.
Then, he offers the following recommendations for US policymakers:
But don’t take my word for it, read the whole enchilada here.