Iran is making noise in the wake of the IAEA’s censure last week. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Iran’s state TV that the country will now build an astounding ten more nuclear plants.
It sure sounds bad, right? Conservatives are crowing that this is the result of President Obama’s weak-kneed, liberal “appeasement policy.” But for the life of me, I can’t figure out how exerting real pressure on Iran (with Russian and Chinese support no less) somehow amounts to appeasement.
Don’t get too upset by Iran’s brinksmanship just yet. Dr. Rebecca Johnson, editor of Disarmament Diplomacy, brings us all down a notch:
The idea that they have the economic wherewithal to build and get these [plants] functioning in a short space of time is nonsense. It’s bravado; it’s braggadocio.
That’s why this is all part of the negotiating dance. Its steps are something like this: The international community, stronger now than ever with Moscow and Beijing on board, squeezes Iran. Iran, beginning to sense that it has been backed into a corner, lashes out with wide-ranging threats. Then, everyone calms down and the real talk begins.
The Iranians know the score, too. Buried beneath the headlines was this revealing quote from Kazem Jalali, spokesman for the parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, who left the door open for more talks: “We have options ranging from complete and full cooperation to leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty on our table.”
Of course, negotiations may ultimately bear little fruit, but that judgment certainly can’t be made yet. Until the diplomatic shimmy-shake really gets swinging, cool resolve and patience are in order.
