After some developments on the candidate recruitment front, it’s probably a good time to take a fresh look at the U.S. Senate battleground for November, and on Republican dreams of actually retaking control of the chamber.
As always, that dream remains a bit of a fantasy, requiring as it would that Republicans win 28 of 36 senatorial contests, including takeovers of 10 Democratic seats without a single loss of one of their own. (Some would argue that Republicans only need 49 or 50 seats for control, since they’d be able to pull Joe Lieberman and/or Ben Nelson into a party-switch, but that’s very speculative). With viable GOP candidates recently choosing not to run in WI and NY, and with time soon to run out on a viable candidate in WA, even a sweep of winnable races wouldn’t quite get Republicans across the line.
More realistic projections suggest major but not apocalyptic Republican gains (the GOP has all but banked a seat in ND, and both AR and DE look very tough for Democrats to hold onto). Nate Silver’s statistical model currently projects a four-seat Republican gain, though he concedes that GOPers would win three more seats if the election were held today. And he shows the probability of a Republican takeover of the Senate as no higher than the probability that Democrats will actually gain seats (six percent versus seven percent, respectively, to be exact).
Chris Bowers’ latest projections suggest a Republican pickup of seven seats (ND, AR, DE, IN, PA, NV, CO). Being more cautious, and focusing on narrowing the field of competitive races rather than making predictions, Cook Report’s Jennifer Duffy shows nine races—five over Democratic held-seats, and four over Republican-held seats—as toss-ups.
Not that I put myself in the company of these campaign analysts, but I suspect that the contests in CO and PA will wind up being barnburners, not the relatively easy Republican wins some expect, and it’s also likely that some Republican seats, most notably OH, will remain winnable for Democrats. And there have been positive developments for Democrats even in some of the toughest races. There’s Nevada, where Harry Reid has to be happy about the widespread mockery of his strongest GOP challenger, Sue Lowden, for comments suggesting that Americans should barter for health services instead of relying on insurance (now being known as the “Chickens for Check-Ups” proposal). Meanwhile, Charlie Crist’s probable indie run in FL cannot help but complicate GOP efforts to hold onto that Senate seat. And it’s important to remember that Republican primaries still ahead could change a lot of calculations, particularly if far-right candidates like J.D. Hayworth of AZ or Marlin Stutzman of IN or Ken Buck of CO win nominations, or if vicious warfare between candidates repels voters generally, as could happen in CA.
In polling news, Rasmussen shows a very close gubernatorial race in WI, and also places new Democratic Senate candidate Michael Thurmond of GA within shouting distance of incumbent Republican Johnny Isakson. And PPP establishes that Democratic NH Gov. John Lynch probably isn’t going to top 70 percent of the vote as he has in the last two cycles, though he remains a strong favorite for re-election. Meanwhile, Survey USA shows WA Sen. Patty Murray (D) in a tight race for re-election even if the GOP’s proto-savior, Dino Rossi, doesn’t run.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Monday and Friday.
