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New PPI Report Analyzes the “Wageless Boom,” Immigration, and the 2024 Election

  • February 10, 2025
  • Michael Mandel
  • Andrew Fung

WASHINGTON — Real wages were well below historical trends going into the 2024 election, despite strong economic growth. At the same time, the latest job release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that foreign-born workers now account for more than 19% of U.S. employment, up sharply in recent years.   

A new report from the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), titled “Real Wages, Immigration, and the Election,” explores how the combination of weak real wages and the historic jump in immigration in 2023 and 2024 became a major factor in the 2024 election outcome. Authored by Dr. Michael Mandel and Andrew Fung, the report argues that voters were not misinformed about the economy, as some political analysts suggested. Instead, they accurately recognized that their real wages had fallen behind pre-pandemic trends.

“Our research shows that real wages were far weaker than expected,” said Michael Mandel, PPI Vice President and Chief Economist. “That reality shaped voter attitudes in 2024, and Democrats were unprepared for the backlash.”

Key findings include:

  • Real wages fell during the post-pandemic inflationary surge, but unexpectedly did not fully recover when inflation abated, leading to what the report calls a “wageless economic boom.”
  • Legal immigration is a clear positive for the country in the long run. But foreign-born workers accounted for nearly 90% of total employment growth from 2019 to 2024, suggesting a short-term connection between stagnant real wages and the jump in immigration. 
  • Democrats misread the political landscape by touting indicators such as job creation and GDP while failing to address voters’ economic discontent about wage growth.

“Real wages need to be at the center of economic policymaking and political strategy,” said Andrew Fung, PPI Policy Analyst. “If voters feel they’re falling behind financially, no amount of strong GDP numbers or job gains will change their minds.”

With the 2024 election serving as a wake-up call, Democrats must recalibrate their economic message — focusing on real wage growth and cost-of-living improvements — to regain trust among working-class voters.

Read and download the report here.

Founded in 1989, PPI is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Find an expert at PPI and follow us on X.

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Media Contact: Ian O’Keefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

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