President Obama’s three-day swing through Shanghai and Beijing presents an interesting opportunity to make real headway on three critical trans-Pacific issues.
First is economics. Whether the issue is China’s near recession-proof economy, currency devaluation, or seemingly inexhaustible appetite for American debt, Obama has been walking a tightrope to frame financial competition as a healthy companion to cooperation. While it’s perhaps somewhat natural for Americans to “fear” Chinese economic hegemony, keep this in mind: China has to keep growing at a rate of close to 8 percent annually, or it won’t be able to integrate its approximately 20 million brand new job seekers each year. The potential instability could wreak havoc, so on some level (American debt notwithstanding) Chinese growth should be managed rather than ignored or fought.
Second is world leadership, specifically on climate change. I was listening to a BBC podcast this morning that highlighted China’s fascinating and divisive internal debate on its place in the world, with various cadres within the governing Communist party arguing for relative isolation over front-running. This is where Obama’s message can strike home: The world needs China as a global leader as other countries look to Washington and Beijing before making their move. The Indias, Brazils, and Russias of the world see little reason to agree to any wide-ranging worldwide carbon restrictions if China doesn’t play ball first.
Finally, many will paint the president’s visit as too soft on his Chinese hosts — Obama refused a visit in DC with the Dalai Lama and has been rather publicly muted (though not silent) on the issue of human rights (though he did address the issue at a town hall meeting with students). For the record, human rights must be a part of the conversation, both as a moral issue and bargaining chip (as base as that may sound). Obama has been rather careful to present them as one of many agenda items, one that doesn’t needlessly anger Beijing and derail important conversations on issues in which America needs a Chinese partner now.
