Iran is lashing out furiously at the usual suspects – America, Britain, Israel – whom it blames for stirring up domestic dissent. But no amount of ritual execration of foreign devils by pro-government demonstrators yesterday could obscure the fact that the real threat to the regime comes from within.
The Green protest movement, which arose in reaction to Iran’s rigged election six months ago, took to the streets again on December 27. At least eight people were killed in the ensuing crackdown by the government.
The regime has been deeply shaken by the protesters, who have made it clear they don’t want to live in a theocratic dictatorship. Officials yesterday even threatened to execute opposition leaders, including Mir Hossein Mousavi, who lost his bid for the presidency in the disputed election.
2009 will likely be remembered as the year the mask slipped completely from the Islamic Republic of Iran, revealing a paranoid regime increasingly dominated by Iran’s thuggish Revolutionary Republican Guard. From show trials of supposedly repentant opposition leaders to Iran’s preposterous claim that three U.S. rock climbers are actually spies, Iran now exhibits the classic trappings of a police state.
With the grotesque exception of Hugo Chavez, friend to tyrants everywhere, Iran suffers from growing international isolation. For this, President Obama deserves considerable credit, though Republicans who have cluelessly criticized his policy of “engaging” Iran will never admit it. By reaching out repeatedly to the regime, Obama has made it harder for Tehran to cast Washington as a neo-imperalist bully determined to deny Iran’s rights to acquire civilian nuclear energy. And he has deprived the Islamic Republican of the external threat it needs to justify repression at home.
That’s why, despite the regime’s harsh crackdown on its opponents, President Obama should leave open the door to engaging Tehran on the nuclear issue. Even if the regime continues to rebuff his overtures, it will bear the onus of intransigence, and the U.S. may find it easier to win Russian and Chinese support for tightening sanctions on the regime and the Revolutionary Guard.
Our best hopes for a more tractable and cooperative Iran, however, lie in the success of popular efforts to transform the Islamic Republic. Although the U.S. government can’t materially aid the opposition without fatally compromising it, NGOs here and abroad should be prepared to respond to calls for help from indigenous Iranian reformers should they come.
In the meantime, President Obama should steer clear of anti-Iran bluster, but continue to be forthright in expressing solidarity with Iranians struggling for human rights and greater freedom. He’s been walking a fine line on Iran, and recent events have vindicated the wisdom of that course.
