There are three big elections that pundits and politicos are looking at today: New Jersey and Virginia’s gubernatorial races, and New York’s 23rd congressional seat, which opened up when the administration tapped Republican John McHugh to be the Secretary of the Navy.
As Mark Halperin put it, analysts are turning the usual dictum on its head: “[T]oday, they’ll try to convince you, all politics is national.” Buckets of virtual ink have already been spilled prognosticating the results and explaining What It All Means. Everyone is pretty sure that it will be a big day for Republicans. Polls going into Election Day showed Republican Bob McDonnell heading for a big win in Virginia, while Republican Chris Christie held a slim lead over incumbent Jon Corzine in New Jersey.
But the race that’s been getting the lion’s share of attention is in New York. Doug Hoffman, a third-party candidate under the Conservative Party banner, looks poised to win over Democrat Bill Owens. The Republican candidate, moderate Dede Scozzafava, pulled out of the race a few days ago after it became clear that the party’s conservative base would not be voting for her. Underscoring how out of step she was with the Republican mainstream, Scozzafava then went on to endorse Owens.
Pundits and partisans have gone gaga trying to game out what a Hoffman victory, along with wins for McDonnell and Christie, spells for the GOP. While some conservatives have cautioned against overinterpreting the results, many have gone on to do so anyway. Jonah Goldberg, always a reliable fount of conservative CW, says, “Hoffman and McDonnell owe their success to the support of independents (the independents all of these people said wanted moderate, Democrat-lite policies) and to Republicans determined to stay true to conservative principles.”
But if that’s the lesson that conservatives draw from any GOP successes today, then that’s actually not a bad upside for progressives. Goldberg’s views underscore the delusion prevalent among many conservatives that Glenn Beck, Sarah Palin, and Rush Limbaugh — and the values that they espouse — are embraced by the vast majority of Americans. True, there are signs of a conservative stirring, but two undeniable facts remain: moderates and liberals outnumber conservatives, and the Republican Party brand is still pretty toxic. If conservatives really want to bet that a hard-right turn is the best move to build a lasting majority, then progressives have no choice but to let them keep thinking it — and to make sure not to repeat the same mistake on their side.
In off-year and off-off-year elections, turnout is traditionally low and the edge normally goes to the more energized segment of the electorate. Hardcore conservatives have been frothing at the mouth for the last year, and this is the first time many of them get to vent their frustrations at the ballot box since Obama’s win. For that same reason, next year is looking promising for Republicans as well. But conservatives will learn the wrong lessons. They will see GOP gains in 2009 and 2010 as a referendum on a party that’s not conservative enough. They will continue to demand that the party veer further to the right, embrace the freak show, and throw more moderates like Scozzafava overboard. Then, when 2012 rolls around, a larger electorate will show up at the polls and find a Republican Party that’s painted itself into an ideological corner, snarling at anyone to the left of Sean Hannity.
According to The Atlantic‘s Marc Ambinder, this is exactly how the White House sees the state of play. Ambinder writes, “The more Republicans find their voice on the right, on what White House officials call the ‘Palin-Beck’ axis, the better Democrats will fare after 2010, when they still should have their majorities, when they should have a sleeve of accomplishments, when it becomes clear that Republicans are unwilling or unable to build a genuine coalition.”
Think of today and next year’s midterms as one big party for the Republican right. The hangover will hit in 2012.
