COVID vaccinations per week, worldwide: 150 million
Workers escaping deep poverty, 2000-2019: 440 million
International students in the U.S., 2020: 1.07 million
WHAT THEY MEAN:
PPI re-launches this Trade Fact series under the political equivalent of storm warnings and lowering clouds, in the U.S and worldwide. Looking abroad, publics abroad appear more tempted than at any time in decades to believe that their country’s gain must entail another’s loss. Looking inward, they seem increasingly at risk from authoritarian populists and illiberal political parties. And on a different level of analysis, trust among big-power governments has eroded; and the institutions and agreements built up since the Second World War to safeguard security and promote shared growth – whether NATO, the World Trade Organization, the European Union – accordingly seem ever more fragile.
Against this ominous backdrop, in concert with like-minded policymakers and intellectuals in the U.S. and elsewhere, PPI aspires to help – by (a) offering new ideas and projects for a liberalism besieged and in need of revitalization; (b) rebutting unfounded cynicism and pessimism, which often are more the cause than the reflection of deteriorating ideals and institutions; and (c) highlighting the successes of active government joined with open exchange of goods, services, and ideas. In this spirit, the first in this new Trade Fact series notes three successes of liberalism-writ-large:
Half the World’s People Have Received COVID-19 Vaccinations This Year: 22 months after the discovery of a previously unknown coronavirus in Wuhan, government, non-profit, and private-sector investment in medicine development, production technologies, and distribution has provided vaccination shots to 47.8% of the world’s public – that is, 3.7 billion people – with 150 million more shots going into arms each week.
Low-Income Work Has Contracted by Two Thirds Since 2000: The International Labor Organization finds that in 2020, about 8% of the world’s 3.5 billion workers earned ‘extreme poverty’ wages. That is, for 280 million workers, a day’s labor brought $1.90 or less in constant 2011 dollars. In 2000, the ILO’s figure was 26% of 2.76 billion workers, or 720 million. The difference – 440 million people – implies that, on average, every day since the turn of the millennium, 68,000 workers (and along with them, tens of thousands of their children and relatives), have escaped deep poverty.
1.07 Million International Students Are Enrolled in American Universities: Despite Trump-era efforts to close borders, America remains the world’s top choice for study abroad, home to 1.07 million of the world’s 5.8 million international students. Their tuition and expenses count as an “export of services” in trade accounts; in 2020, this came to $39 billion. (For context, this is 2% of the $2.13 trillion in total U.S. exports; alternatively, by comparison, U.S. farm exports totaled $150 billion in 2020 and auto exports $59 billion.) Over the long term, the effects are likely larger. Surveys from the mid-2010s suggest that about half of foreign grad students take U.S. jobs after their degree, contributing to consumer demand, business creation, and perhaps especially – given that half of them are in engineering, math, and science – to American science and technology. Despite neo-Maoism and U.S.-China tension, 372,000 Chinese students make up the largest single cohort of the 1.07 million. After classes and commencements, some will stay on to work, while others return to join China’s next-generation elites in business, civil service, arts and media, and so to help shape these institutions’ role in Chinese domestic policy, daily life, and international affairs.
To ignore storm warnings and lowering clouds is reckless. The proper response to them is to identify those parts of a roof or a wall that may leak or give way in heavy weather, shore up their weaknesses or replace them with something better. It is equally important, however, to identify areas of strength, build upon them, and draw on the lessons they offer. Metaphorical examples appear, in the response of government, non-profit, and private-sector science to a unique medical emergency; in the road out of poverty a still largely open global economy offers the world’s poor; and in the short- and long-term good that can come from education and exchange of ideas. In such things one can see breaks in the clouds, patches of sunlight ahead, and foundation for PPI’s belief that the liberal project remains vital, successful, and worth defending.
COVID resources –
Oxford University’s “Our World in Data” project summarizes the state of COVID vaccination, worldwide and by country. Top performers are Portugal, with 86% of the public fully vaccinated, the United Arab Emirates at 84%, Iceland at 81%, and Spain at 79%. The U.S. is at 56%, tied with Ecuador and just ahead of El Salvador’s 55%. The chief challenge in the United States is the galling one of foolish ‘vaccine hesitancy’ and perverse policymaking (e.g. attempts by some state governments to stigmatize or even ban ‘vaccine mandates’, including those of private businesses). The chief challenge worldwide, by contrast, remains lack of access: in very poor countries, on average, only 2.8% of people are vaccinated. Our World in Data on COVID-19 vaccinations by country: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
The State Department outlines U.S. donations of vaccines to developing countries: https://www.state.gov/covid-19-recovery/vaccine-deliveries/
Peterson Institute scholar Chad Bown and CFR analyst Thomas Bollyky examine the multinational supply chains – U.S., France, Switzerland, U.K., Spain, India, South Africa, Korea, etc. – that created the vaccines, production centers, and delivery systems: https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/how-covid-19-vaccine-supply-chains-emerged-midst-pandemic
The working poor –
The International Labour Organization’s Employment and Social Outlook 2021 examines the world labor market and the impact of Covid, with working-poor figures through 2020. From 2019 to 2020, the estimate of men and women in extreme low-income work rose from 6.6% to 7.8% of all workers, implying that the Covid pandemic pushed about 35 million workers back into deep poverty last year: https://www.ilo.org/global/research/global-reports/weso/trends2021/WCMS_795453/lang–en/index.htm
Also from the ILO, a closer look from 2019 at the state of extreme-low-income work, comparing slightly dated with figures up to 2000-2018: https://ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—dgreports/—stat/documents/publication/wcms_696387.pdf
Students –
For international students, education is a long-term investment; in trade statistics, it is a form of “exports of services” and a source of revenue. The annual “Open Doors” statistical review looks at international students in the U.S. (and American students abroad) by state and university of study, country of origin, and more: https://opendoorsdata.org/annual-release/
Principles –
PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project supports American leadership to build a fairer, more stable, more prosperous world economy. To this end, through publications, events, and commentary, and in concert with likeminded intellectuals and policymakers at home and worldwide, we will advocate open markets, support for scientific and technological innovation, and individual choice; environmental sustainability; and special concern for the poor at home and abroad. Complementing this future agenda, we will oppose and critique isolationist populism and nativism; call for reform of regressive, antiquated, and ill-conceived elements of the U.S. trade regime; and offer positive approaches to the social stresses of globalization.
Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.
Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.
Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.
Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.