Louisiana | 43.4% |
Texas | 20.6% |
Oregon | 11.4% |
Alabama | 9.2% |
Indiana | 9.9% |
Washington | 8.4% |
Wisconsin | 6.8% |
Pennsylvania | 5.4% |
Massachusetts | 4.8% |
New Mexico | 3.9% |
D.C. | 1.0% |
Hawaii | 0.7% |
* Goods only (manufactures, agriculture, energy, mining, returns, waste & scrap, low-value shipments); no data exists for state services exports.
A note from Virginia electric co-op newsletter “Cooperative Living” last week tallies farms and trade: 41,500 Virginia farms export $4 billion a year to 152 countries, topped by China at $1.36 billion, then Canada, Taiwan, Mexico, and Japan at $362 million, $161 million, $140 million, and $129 million.
Their piece draws on work at the Census, Department of Agriculture, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, whose stat experts over the past decade become steadily more ambitious and precise in tracking exports down to states, cities, and “metro areas.” Their data — try in particular the Commerce Department’s “TradeStats Express” — show that (a) Virginia overall is very close to the “typical” state, placing exactly 24th in 2022 with $25 billion in total exports; (b) is one of 34 states for whom Canada is the top overseas (if that’s the right term) customer, and one of 13 whose top ag market is China; and (c) together with the agriculture exports comes in at $5.8 billion in energy, $2.2 billion in computers and electronics, and $1.4 billion worth of paper (fifth-ranked in the country); $631 million in waste and scrap metal for recycling, $188 million in pesticides and “other agri-chemicals,” and so on.
To produce such figures is challenging. Manufactured goods, for example, are usually composite assemblies of parts made in lots of places rather than monoliths built from scratch at a single site. (If a car has an engine made in Ohio, a windshield made of Kentucky glass, a chassis from Indiana metals, computers using semiconductor chips in Arizona, all coming together at a Michigan factory, the logical and preferred — but still not totally satisfying — answer is that it’s “from” Michigan.) Agricultural exports are even more hotly disputed: One Department calculates totals based on the location of the port or railhead where river barges and containers full of (say) soybeans come together to load for shipment abroad, and counts processed foods as manufactured goods, while another uses average production value by state and counts processed foods as agricultural products. And nobody has figured out a way to calculate state services exports. But these points noted, the government’s upgraded state data make one thing very clear, make a lot of things pretty clear, and provide many interesting points to say about state specialties, regional economies, and their links abroad:
Very clear: As of 2022, Gov. John Bel Edwards’ Louisiana is the king of state exporters. Louisiana’s $122 billion in exports last year — more than double the $56 billion in 2017 — gives the state a 43% export-share-of-GDP ratio when matched against its $281 billion GDP. This is twice the 20.6% ratio of second-place Texas. The boom mainly reflects the roaring growth of U.S. energy exports centered around Louisiana’s three specially designed liquefied natural gas export terminals. (Since 2021, the U.S. has been the world’s top energy exporter, with gas and oil, and the smaller coal/electricity/biofuels sectors, accounting for 18.4% of U.S. exports last year, an all-time record far above the 13.2% peak achieved in the 1920s.)
A look at the top five state export-to-GDP ratios illustrates:
Louisiana 43.4%
Texas 20.6%
Puerto Rico 17.0% (2021)
Kentucky 13.2%
Mississippi 11.8%
Pretty clear: The remaining 46 states and D.C. fall in a range from sixth-place Oregon’s 11.4% through the 5% to 7% common in the Northeast, to the lowest export-to-GDP ratios (D.C.’s 1.0% and Hawaii’s 0.7%). Finding patterns is tricky given that some of the data remain blurry, especially for small, agriculture-reliant inland states. But overall, Southern and Midwestern states appear on average somewhat more export-reliant than East Coast and West Coast states. Measured in total dollars, Texas (benefiting, like Louisiana, from a gas and oil surge) is easily the top exporter at $486 billion, with California a distant second at $186 billion. (Though, given the absence of services data, this doesn’t include anything Californians may possibly be earning from overseas sales of software, movies showings, music downloads, etc.). Louisiana’s $122 billion is third, followed by New York’s $106 billion and Illinois’ $78 billion. The next five are Florida, Washington, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Lots of Information: TradeStats Express lets you arrange the data in an unusual variety of ways: by overseas markets, by single products, in-depth panoramas for particular states, comparisons among neighboring states, etc. For example, Texas is by far the top state exporter to sub-Saharan Africa at $5.1 billion of a nationwide $18 billion; Pennsylvania, meanwhile, is the U.S.’ top exporter of sugars and confectionery, while Florida leads in ships and boats, and California in mushrooms. As to farmed fish, Maine exports over two-thirds of the U.S. total. Or, as noted earlier, Canada is the top market for 34 states, while among the rest, Mexico is the top market for six states (Arizona, California, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Texas); China for four (Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and Massachusetts); Germany for two (Alabama and Connecticut); the U.K. for one state (Utah) and the District of Columbia; and one each for Brazil, (Florida), Singapore (Hawaii), Switzerland (New York**) and the Netherlands (Puerto Rico). Or, a few single-state studies:
1. Arizona: On the bottom-left corner of the map, Arizona’s $27 billion in exports rank 20th in total dollars, in a three-way tie with Virginia and Minnesota. Mexico is Arizona’s main customer, buying $8.7 billion or about a third of the $27 billion total. Canada is second, followed by China and the Netherlands. Top products are aerospace ($4.6 billion), semiconductors and electronics ($4.4 billion), and old-standard metal ores ($2.2 billion).
2. Illinois: The U.S.’ fifth-largest exporter at $78 billion in 2022, Illinois relies especially heavily on Canadian and Mexican customers ($23.8 billion and $11.7 billion respectively). Australia is the third-largest at $4.6 billion, buying mainly farm equipment and medicines, followed by Germany and China. Illinois beats California and Texas as top exporter to Australia, and ranks 4th for New Zealand.
3. Kentucky: Gov. Andy Beshear’s justifiably enthusiastic press release notes heavy international investment in Kentucky business: “Kentucky’s international presence includes more than 500 facilities that employ almost 115,000 people and represent 33 different countries.” His trade experts, obviously adept followers of the Census and BEA stats, report exports of $34.4 billion led by “aerospace products and parts, pharmaceuticals and medicines, motor vehicles”, etc., with Canada, Mexico, the U.K., China, and France as the Kentucky’s top five buyers.
4. Oregon: The most “export-intensive” state in the West in 2022, with exports accounting for 11.4% of Oregonian GDP. China is easily the top market, buying $8.3 billion of Oregon’s $34 billion in total exports, mostly semiconductors and related high-tech electronics. Next come Mexico, Canada, Malaysia, and Ireland.
5. Puerto Rico: The Commonwealth’s $20.7 billion in exports are very concentrated in pharmaceuticals, which make up $16.3 billion or nearly 80% of the total. Most go to Europe: $3.5 billion to Spain, $3.4 billion to the Netherlands, and $1.3 billion to Italy, with Japan and China next, followed by Belgium, Germany, and Austria. The only Caribbean neighbor in Puerto Rico’s top 20 markets is the Dominican Republic, in 11th place at $465 million.
6. Vermont: And in the map’s top right corner, with $2.5 billion in 2022 exports, Vermont ties New Hampshire as the most export-reliant Northeastern state. (6.2% of Vermont’s $40.6 billion GDP.) Semiconductors and other electronics account for about half of the total, with Canada the top market at $777 million, Taiwan second at $465 million, and China third at $211 million. Note the $54 million in sugars and confectioneries — presumably the iconic “sweetest thing,” maple syrup and maple sugar — all destined for Canada.
* Using 2021 exports and ‘GDP’ for Puerto Rico, as the 2022 figures aren’t yet available.
** A 2022 anomaly, probably reflecting a one-year surge in gold exports; typically Canada is New York’s top market.
From the states:
Cooperative Living (pg. 35) has a snapshot of Virginia farm exports.
???? King of exports: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards pitches natural gas exports and investment opportunities in Asia last March.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear on Kentucky’s global investment/SME export boom.
Puerto Rico’s export development program.
Data sources:
BEA’s interactive & visualization data masterpiece.
Census’ convenient one-page state and metro-area trade data reports.
… and behind the numbers, a look at how Census tracks the figures back to local origins and the places they begin to blur.
USDA’s state agricultural trade data.
… and as with Census above, an explanation of how USDA’s Economic Research Service calculates origins.
BEA’s state GDP figures.
And for international context and comparisons, the WTO’s World Trade Statistical Review 2022 (2021 data; next annual edition likely in November).
Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.
Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.
Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank Progressive Economy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.
Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.
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