It’s a relatively quiet Tuesday on the electoral front, with just two states, Washington and Wyoming, holding primaries today, and no one expecting any dramatic results of national import.
Washington
Washington has an unusual “Top 2” primary system, in which candidates from all parties compete on a single ballot with the top two finishers advancing to the general election (this is the system recently adopted for future elections in California via a successful initiative). It’s important to note that a majority vote does not (as in Louisiana’s “jungle primary”) obviate the need for a “runoff” in the general election.
The big contest in WA is the Republican challenge to Sen. Patty Murray (D). Almost all of the scenarios for a Republican takeover of the Senate this year require a Republican upset over Murray. And though it took a while, national Republicans were able to recruit the candidate they wanted in real estate developer Dino Rossi, who lost two close gubernatorial races to Christine Gregoire (D) in 2004 and 2008 and thus enjoys near-universal name ID.
But Rossi’s late entry, and his decision to steer clear of Tea Party gatherings, guaranteed him Republican competition in the primary. Former Washington Redskins tight end Clint Didier is the strongest of the True Conservative pack. Didier has drawn an endorsement from Sarah Palin, and should do well in central Washington, but barely reached double digits in a recent PPP poll showing Murray at 47 percent and Rossi at 33 percent. The buzz tonight will likely be about the relative positioning of Murray and Rossi.
The main event in Washington congressional primaries is in the open 3rd district, where Democrat Brian Baird is retiring. Former state legislator Denny Heck has largely cleared the field of other Democrats, and should finish first. The national GOP heart-throb for the race is state representative Jaime Herrera, a 31-year-old Latina who has shown a mild (for this year) moderate streak. Former state legislative staffer and federal appointee David Castillo has run to the right of Herrera, and has won the FreedomWorks endorsement that signifies Tea Party backing. Herrera is favored to make the general election, but an upset is possible.
In the other Washington congressional districts, incumbents are all favored, though in the very competitive 8th district, former Microsoft executive Suzan DelBane (D) is picking up where 2006-2008 Democratic nominee Darcy Burner left off in challenging Republican Dave Riechert. In the 9th district, two relatively viable Republicans, county commissioner Dick Muri and 2008 nominee James Postma, are battling for a spot opposite New Democrat Coalition co-chair Adam Smith, who will be pretty heavily favored in November.
Wyoming
In Wyoming, that rarest of beasts, a very popular Democratic governor in a very red state, David Freudenthal, decided relatively late this year against a legal challenge to term limits that probably would have enabled him to run for a third term. Democrats are holding a low-key gubernatorial primary dominated by former state party chair Leslie Peterson and former University of Wyoming football star Pete Gosar, who are both campaigning as political heirs of Freudenthal (Gosar once piloted the governor’s state plane). Peterson is the modest favorite due to high name ID.
The GOP gubernatorial primary in WY has turned into a four-way brawl involving former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, considered the “establishment” candidate; State Auditor Rita Meyer, who can boast of an elaborate military background and a late endorsement from Sarah Palin; House Speaker Colin Simpson, son of former Sen. Alan Simpson (whose old friend George H.W. Bush has given Simpson the Younger an endorsement); and hard-core conservative Ron Micheli, who’s won the endorsement of Wyoming anti-abortion activists and is challenging his opponents to take no-new-tax pledges.
A Mason-Dixon poll at the end of July showed Meyer at 27 percent, Mead at 24 percent, Simpson at 17 percent, and Micheli at 12 percent. Simpson’s undertaken a late media blit, and Micheli seems to have the True Conservative mojo going for him, so anything could happen.
Next Week: Florida
Looking ahead a week, the extremely unstable political situation in Florida going into the August 24 primary remains unclear. In the toxic GOP gubernatorial race, three recent polls (Mason-Dixon, Tarrance and McGlaughlin) show Attorney General Bill McCollum retaking the lead from heavy-spending Rick Scott, but an Ipsos survey shows Scott still well ahead. But Mason-Dixon and Ipsos agree in giving Democrat Alex Sink a lead over either Republican in a three-way race involving independent Bud Chiles.
In the Democratic Senate race, Mason-Dixon and Susquehanna show congressman Kendrick Meek taking advantage of bad publicity involving billionaire Jeff Greene to retake a double-digit lead in that contest. But again, Ipsos cuts against the grain with a survey showing Greene still up 40-32.
Since incumbent Gov. and independent Senate candidate Charlie Crist is very dependent on Democratic votes to remain viable, he has a big stake in the outcome of the Democratic primary. But given all the dramatics of the race, it’s unclear which candidate would help Crist, and which candidate could give Crist and Marco Rubio a run for their money.
