Today’s political feature is the runoff in Alabama, which I previewed in the last PPI political memo. As noted then, turnout patterns will probably be the determining factor in the GOP gubernatorial runoff, with the big question being whether Democrats will cross over in significant numbers. In the congressional runoffs, Democrat Terri Sewell is the favorite to win virtual election to the House in the 7th district seat vacated by unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Artur Davis, and Martha Roby should be able to turn back viral ad star Rick Barber in the Republican contest in the 2nd district. In most of the state, voters will be suffering through hot, humid weather with possible thunderstorms.
The primary state up next on the calendar is Georgia on July 20, and the highly competitive Republican gubernatorial primary there was roiled yesterday by Sarah Palin’s endorsement of former Secretary of State Karen Handel. It’s not clear yet whether Palin’s endorsement was one of those one-off interventions that have often characterized her activity this year (viz. her endorsement of Terry Brandstad in Iowa without so much as a phone conversation), or will be followed up by more active engagement. But it was well-timed: Handel has been moving up in the polls recently, holding a strong second place behind long-time front-runner John Oxendine in a SUSA poll released last week. Much as happened in Iowa, Georgia’s social conservatives have not reacted well to Palin’s endorsement, and former congressman Nathan Deal, who has been battling Handel for a runoff spot, put out a release expressing disappointment in Palin for supporting “the most liberal Republican in this race.”
Rhetoric aside, Handel’s profile in the race is actually pretty similar to that of another recent Palin endorsee, South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, at least before hamhanded allegations about Haley’s sex life and background took over news coverage and vaulted her to a landslide runoff victory. Like Haley, Handel is positioning herself as a “conservative reformer” taking on the state GOP’s good ol’ boys, and her single biggest problem, poor fundraising, may have been offset by the attention she’ll get from Palin’s endorsement. Right now an Oxendine-Handel runoff is the most likely outcome next Tuesday, though both Deal and a fourth candidate, Eric Johnson (who’s been running copious television ads) will fight her tooth and nail to the finish.
An even bigger name than Palin got involved in Georgia’s Democratic gubernatorial primary over the weekend, as former president Bill Clinton endorsed Attorney General Thurbert Baker. This wasn’t that big a surprise, since Baker was Hillary Clinton’s highest-profile Georgia supporter in 2008 (at least after John Lewis defected to the Obama camp). And there are no signs that the Big Dog will actually show up in Georgia to thump the tubs for Thurbert. But Baker definitely needs the help. Long assumed to have a virtual lock on a runoff spot opposite former Gov. Roy Barnes, Baker’s late-developing campaign has struggled to get off the ground, and recent polls show Barnes headed for a primary victory without a runoff (there are two other significant candidates on the ballot: former Secretary of State David Poythress and Democratic state legislative leader Dubose Porter). With some more attention, Baker might have a chance to keep Barnes below 50 percent: he’s an African-American in a state where a majority of the likely Democratic primary voters are African-American, and he’s lately found a distinctive issue by coming out for an electronic bingo initiative to help forestall education cuts.
In polling news, Rasmussen has a survey of general election matchups in the Colorado Senate race, showing another beneficiary of a Bill Clinton endorsement, former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, running a bit better than incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) against either of the two main Republican candidates, Ken Buck or Jane Norton. Colorado’s primary is four weeks from today.
Quinnipiac has released a new poll of the PA governor’s race, which, as in its May survey, shows Democrat Dan Onorato within single digits of Republican Tom Corbett, who leads 44-37.
The first poll in a good while in Indiana, by Rasmussen, shows Republican Dan Coats continuing to hold a big (51-30) lead over Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IA) for the Senate, though Ellsworth’s approval/disapproval ratio remains relatively strong at 42-29.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
