It’s been a week of fog and shadows in U.S. politics — a lot of fiery talk, much of it surrounding the financial regulation bill in Congress and Tax Day beyond it — and a few real developments.
The best news for Democrats is that potentially formidable Republican candidates for two must-win Senate seats decided not to run: former governors George Pataki of New York and Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin. This makes the seats of Democrats Kirsten Gillibrand and Russ Feingold relatively safe, at least for now.
The other good news for Dems is that they easily retained the South Florida House seat of resigned Rep. Robert Wexler in a special election. That shouldn’t have been surprising, given the heavily pro-Democratic voting history of the district. But after Scott Brown’s victory, some Republicans began to imagine they could win anywhere. Moreover, the heavy senior and Jewish voting segments of the district fed some Republican hopes that senior unhappiness with health reform and Jewish anxiety over the president’s stormy relations with Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu might produce a backlash. No such luck.
Also in Florida, the very tangled U.S. Senate race took another odd turn, as embattled Gov. Charlie Crist, badly trailing Marco Rubio in the polls for their Republican primary, ended days of suspense by vetoing a “teacher merit pay” bill that had created vast partisan polarization in the Sunshine State. The bill, which would have phased out teacher tenure and based half of teacher evaluation on students’ performance on standardized tests, was the apple of former Gov. Jeb Bush’s eye. In vetoing the legislation, Crist became more of a pariah to conservatives than ever, spurring rumors (which the governor and his staff have been routinely denying) that he might withdraw from the primary and run as an independent.
One other little tidbit from Florida: Guess who just registered to vote in the Sunshine State? Mike Huckabee. It could be just a coincidence, but Florida is certainly a more important state in the Republican presidential nominating process than Huck’s native Arkansas. It’s probably also easier to get flights from there to New York, where Huckabee’s weekly Fox show is taped.
In a number of states, candidates are gearing down for a very heavy month of May, with competitive statewide primaries, and many downballot contests, on tap in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio (May 4); and Arkansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania (May 18). There are Senate primaries in all six states, and a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in PA.
Polling activity is also picking up. There were three new polls out of Arkansas this week, all showing Sen. Blanche Lincoln maintaining a steady but not overwhelming lead against primary challenger Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. With a third candidate in the field, the big issue there may be whether Lincoln can avoid a runoff in which almost anything could happen.
The very day that Charlie Crist cast his fate to the winds by vetoing a GOP education bill, Quinnipiac came out with a new poll showing him getting crushed by Marco Rubio more than ever in a Senate primary, but actually leading a three-way race with Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek if he runs as an independent.
And there’s been some, well, unusual polling results on trial heats of possible 2012 challengers to President Obama. Rasmussen showed Ron Paul running even with the president, which is a bit hard to believe. And PPP showed four different Republicans (Huckabee, Palin, Gingrich and Romney) running almost exactly even with Obama, despite wide differences in their own approval ratings, which is a bit hard to understand.
Finally, if you haven’t seen yesterday’s New York Times/CBS poll that includes the most thorough survey we’ve seen of tea party supporters, do check it out, along with my analysis of it. Long story short: I don’t care what Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell say in today’s Washington Post; if the tea partiers are indeed, as they argue, “swing voters,” then I’m the next American Idol, and not just in the shower.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs on Mondays and Fridays.
