In a recent blog item, we estimated that in 2025, the five big tech companies — Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft — are projected to invest $240 billion in the U.S. in capital expenditures, primarily in AI-related data centers and equipment. Other large tech companies and investors are pouring huge amounts of money into new data centers as well.
This tech and AI investment surge dramatically overshadows domestic investment from major manufacturing industries. For example, in 2023, the motor vehicle industry invested just $29 billion in U.S. structures and equipment, while the primary metals industry, including steel and aluminum, invested only $15 billion.
Indeed, data center construction is providing a much-needed boost to state economies. Consider Virginia, one of the leading locations for data centers. The 2024 report on “Data Centers in Virginia,” from the state’s Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission, found that “the data center industry provides approximately 74,000 jobs, $5.5 billion in labor income, and $9.1 billion in Virginia GDP overall to the state economy annually.” That estimate was based on average spending by the industry between FY21 and FY23, prior to the AI boom.
The Virginia report noted that data center revenue has allowed localities to lower real estate tax rates, construct new schools, and establish revenue stabilization or reserve funds. Moreover, “data centers are an attractive industry because they impose minimal direct costs on the provision of government services,” including local roads, and school systems.
In recognition of the economic benefits of data centers, most states offer an exemption from sales tax for the equipment going into data centers. That’s analogous to the sales tax exemption most states offer for the purchase of manufacturing machinery to go into a factory. Texas, for example, exempts “certain items necessary to the operation of qualifying large data centers,” while also exempting “several types of items used in manufacturing products for sale, including materials that become part of the manufactured product” and equipment “necessary or essential to the manufacturing operation if it causes a physical or chemical change in the product being manufactured.”
Oddly enough, if more factories are built in a state where manufacturing machinery was exempt from sales tax, the nominal revenue loss from the sales tax exemption would rise, even as politicians would cheer. The same would be true if more data centers are built.
This quirk in the accounting for tax expenditures can produce misleading headlines. For example, one recent report focused on the revenue loss from sales tax exemptions for data center purchases, highlighting Texas: “For example, in the space of just 23 months, Texas revised its FY 2025 cost projection from $130 million to $1 billion.” The report added: “We know of no other form of state spending that is so out of control.”
But that’s an odd interpretation of good news. Clearly, the increase in the Texas projections was due to the AI boom, which added tens of billions of dollars in genuinely new data center construction in the state. This construction represents a true gain to the Texas economy, not a loss. For comparison, it should also be noted that the size of the sales tax exemption for machinery, equipment, and materials used in Texas manufacturing is projected to be $11.5 billion in FY25, and rising to $15 billion in FY30, reflecting the strength of manufacturing in Texas.
To summarize: A state sales tax exemption for data center equipment, like the one for manufacturing machinery, is designed to boost investment and jobs. Without the exemption, the investment in the state — and the contribution to the state economy — would be lower.
