Our final regional roundup for the stretch drive involves the Midwest, defined as states from Ohio and Kentucky west to the Great Plains. There are six Republican Senate seats up this year, though one race – South Dakota — is uncontested and the GOP has long held huge lead in two others – Iowa and Kansas. Ohio has recently slipped out of the competitive range with Rob Portman holding regular double-digit leads over Lee Fisher, and Roy Blunt has opened up a pretty steady lead over Robin Carnahan in Missouri. The closest race for a Republican seat is in Kentucky, but Rand Paul seems to have stabilized his campaign and now has a small but steady lead over Jack Conway. One Democratic Senate seat is gone, in North Dakota, where Gov. John Hoeven has a vast lead, and another is virtually gone, unless Brad Ellsworth soon makes up some ground against Dan Coats. Illinois is a real crapshoot, with recent polls showing a dead heat between Democrat Alex Giannoulis and Republican Mark Kirk, with a persistently high third party/undecided vote. So it’s looking like a net gain of two to three Senate seats for the GOP in the Heartland.
Nine governorships are up in the region, six currently held by Democrats. Of those, Kansas is a lock for a Republican takeover, and GOP candidates have large and steady leads in two others – Iowa and Missouri. In Ohio and Illinois, Republicans are currently favored, but hold only single-digit leads; both races have tightened recently. And Democrats have an excellent chance of picking up a gubernatorial seat in Minnesota, though Tom Emmer has narrowed Mark Dayton’s lead lately. If there is a region-wide or national GOP wave larger than current polls indicate, the Midwest could give Republicans a net gain of four or five governorships.
But it’s in House races that the Midwest could have its greatest impact. At present, according to the Cook Political Report, there are seven Democratic-controlled House seats in the region Republican candidates are currently favored to win — one each in Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Wisconsin and two in Ohio; nine more Democratic seats that are tossups — one each in Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, South Dakota and Wisconsin; and two each in Illinois and Ohio. Another six Democratic seats are less vulnerable but could be lost in a national landslide. That’s 22 competitive races for Democratic-held House districts, and the only prime Democratic target is Mark Kirk’s open House seat in Illinois. Democrats are in many respects paying the price for banner years in the region in 2006 and 2008.
