Now that we’re past the Kabuki exercise of the health reform “repeal” vote (for the record, just three House Democrats voted for repeal); the attention of Congress is inevitably refocusing on spending issues. And that intrepid group of very conservative folks, the House Republican Study Committee, has come forward with the year’s first semi-detailed list of non-defense discretionary cuts, which along with some pixie-dust math and a lot of TBD across-the-board measures, is said to amount to $2.5 trillion over ten years.
The proposed cuts fall into three basic categories: long-time deficit reduction targets that sound good but don’t accomplish much (the “mohair subsidy” and such small federal programs as the Economic Development Administration and the Appalachian Regional Commission); highly political targets closely associated with Democratic initiatives or constituencies (national and community service; Davis-Bacon “prevailing wage” rules; NEA and NEH; Title X Family Planning); and bigger-ticket items that involve massive reductions in federal or state employment and/or services (cancelling the enhanced Medicaid match rate). There are also proposals that would raise some large foreign policy concerns, such as elimination of USAID and of economic assistance to Egypt.
It’s notable, of course, that these proposals do not touch the defense or homeland security sectors of federal spending—or Social Security and Medicare, for that matter. According to an analysis by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, the RSC’s overall spending goals require an overall reduction of 42 percent in the areas it does not exempt.
One issue that conservatives will likely refuse to debate is the potential impact of such cuts on economic recovery, since they categorically reject Keynsianism these days and also refuse to accept public employment as real. Said RSC member Tom McClintock (R-CA): “Presidents like Hoover and Roosevelt and Bush … and now Obama, who have increased government spending relative to GDP all produced or prolonged or deepened periods of economic hardship and malaise.” Democrats used to charge Republicans with wanting to bring back the fiscal policies of Herbert Hoover, but now Hoover himself is being rejected as a big-spending liberal, reflecting a view of the Great Depression that was exceptionally fringy until very recently.
The RSC package is probably intended as something of a mine canary for the official House Republican non-defense-discretionary spending offensive that will occur in conjunction with the expiration of the current continuing resolution for appropriations and a vote to increase the public debt limit. It will be interesting to see exactly how many Republican lawmakers line up behind the package, and if any strongly object to provisions that will definitely cause them political heartburn.
In a related note, Republicans have chosen House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin to present their response to the State of the Union Address. This indicates the extent to which GOPers want the 2011 focus to remain on budget cuts. Ryan’s success may also determine whether his name keeps coming up as a possible dark horse 2012 presidential possibility. Ryan, of course, is closely identified with a budgetary approach (his famous 2010 “Road Map”) that includes significant changes in Social Security and Medicare. Perhaps consideration of what a non-entitlement-reduction budgetary offensive like RSC’s would involve will revive Republican interest in Ryan’s original thinking.
In non-legislative political news, the big headline was Sen. Joe Lieberman’s decision against running for a fifth term in 2012. With major rivals lining up in both parties, and with Lieberman’s approval ratings in Connecticut looking very poor, his retirement decision was no great surprise. But the discussion of his legacy will be interesting, since few recent political figures have stimulated such widely disparate assessments, from centrist martyr to unprincipled backstabber.
On the 2012 presidential front, reports indicate that Sarah Palin is finally making some concrete inquiries about what it would take to start up a proto-campaign in Iowa, and pressure continues to mount on Mike Pence to eschew an Indiana gubernatorial run and give cultural conservatives a guaranteed champion in the White House field. A new PPP poll shows Mike Huckabee opening up a comfortable national lead among Republicans for the 2012 nomination, with 24 percent of the vote, and Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney tied for second at 14 percent and Newt Gingrich not far behind at 11 percent.