THE NUMBERS: AAA national average of diesel fuel prices* –
| October 19, 2026 |
$6.32/gallon |
|
October 9, 2026 |
$6.28/gallon |
|
January 2025 |
$3.63/gallon |
* AAA; see Department of Transportation/Bureau of Transportation Statistics for monthly rates back to 1995.
WHAT THEY MEAN:
Congress’ September 18 sanctions bill — the “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026” — carried a 30-day timeline for the Trump administration to (a) impose a battery of new financial, investment, and travel sanctions on Russian government officials and businesses, (b) put 500% tariffs on goods Americans are buying from Russia (mainly fertilizer, plywood, and specialty metals), and (c) an option for tariffs of up to 100% on goods produced in the three countries buying most Russian oil and gas (or five countries depending on your interpretation; the top three would be China, India, and Turkey), and the top five involved in helping Russian firms and military industry evade sanctions.
Congress’s idea was to presumably restore financial pressure on Putin-regime officials engaged in planning and overseeing Russia’s war in Ukraine, to penalize others within and outside of Russia involved in sanctions evasion, and to deter purchases of oil and gas that support Russia’s war finance. This 30-day clock tolled midnight on Sunday.
So far, the Trump administration has done pretty much the opposite of what Congress must have hoped. It waived the U.S.’ own sanctions on Russian diesel fuel on October 9 – so much for the “sanctions evasion” piece — and announced a Russian intent to sell 300,000 tons of diesel fuel on world markets, presumably hoping to push fuel costs in the U.S. down before the election, then about a month away. Then last Friday evening it waived all the bill’s sanctions on Russian officials and on buyers of Russian energy on claims of “national interest”.
Before the big strategic and alliance questions this raises, two observations on the practical implications:
U.S. diesel fuel prices unchanged. AAA’s daily fuel-price survey had diesel fuel averaging $6.28 per gallon as the administration announced its shift in policy on the 9th. Last Friday their average was $6.33, and this morning it is $6.32. So the release of 300,000 tons of Russian fuel, if it has really happened, has either not changed U.S. prices at all, or has had an effect so small as to be unnoticeable.
The U.S. does not need Russian diesel oil. The lack of real-world impact is not surprising, since while “300,000 tons” would be a lot of fuel for any one person or business, it’s very small when measured against world and national totals. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the world consumption of diesel fuel is about 29 million barrels daily. Diesel averages 7.4 barrels per ton, so 29 million barrels is about 3.9 million tons a day. Thus, the 300,000 tons is about 8% of daily world diesel fuel use — about two hours’ worth – and appears to be spread out over months. Possibly the administration is hoping Americans will buy the fuel (though that is likely still illegal under a 2022 sanctions law), but we don’t really need it: each day the U.S. uses 3.8 million barrels and produces about 4.4 million barrels, and makes up any regional shortfalls by importing from Canada.
To the more “strategic” questions: Fuel prices are high not because of any fuel shortage but because crude oil prices are high. This in turn is mainly because of the Trump administration’s decision to open a war with Iran in February, and secondarily Ukraine’s successful drone-offensive efforts to target Russia’s refineries as both providers of fuel for Russia’s occupation army — diesel is most often used by heavy vehicles such as trucks and tanks — and sources of war financing. The sanctions bill’s authors last month hoped to supplement the pressure this has imposed on the Russian government and so hasten the end of the war. Though we did not support the bill’s tariff authority grant, the basic thinking is morally and strategically sound: to the degree ‘pressure’ from abroad can influence the war’s outcome, it should fall on Russia as invader and occupier, not on Ukraine as a country defending its land and people against an unprovoked aggressor. Appeasing the invading country, as we warned in early 2025, most likely has the opposite effect.
PPI’s four principles for response to tariffs and economic isolationism:
Documents:
Congress’s Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026, September 18.
PPI comment (August 2026): “Yes to stronger sanctions on Russia and support for Ukraine; no to new tariff authority for the Trump administration.”
The White House’s Executive Order waiving sanctions, October 16.
More from PPI:
PPI’s New Ukraine Project; mission statement: “Devoted to helping Ukraine secure its independence and take its place in Europe as a fully free and democratic nation.”
Kyiv-based Project Director Tamar Jacoby (October 13) on the diesel sanctions waiver, via podcast from the Warsaw Security Forum.
Trade Fact comment (March 2025) on the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the danger of appeasement and isolationism, and the unsavory origin of the “America First” slogan.
And see the Ukrainian Embassy on America at 250.
Data:
The International Energy Agency reports on the worldwide diesel and other fuel markets as of October 2026.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (a DoE branch) explains why diesel prices have been higher than gasoline prices since 2004, and why international conflicts and disruptions can widen this gap.
AAA tracks U.S. diesel and gas prices daily, nationwide and by state.
… and the Energy Information Administration has monthly averages for diesel fuel prices back to 1995.
And last:
“Diesel” is named for 19th-century German inventor Rudolf Diesel, and originally referred to a kind of engine — one which ignites fuel via compressed-air jets rather than sparks — rather than a particular fuel. (Diesel’s original fuel, used in his prototype 1897 engine, was made from peanut oil and today would technically be considered a “biodiesel.”) Now mostly made from heavier grades of oil than those used in gasoline, diesel fuels have about 20% more energy content than gas and are preferred for heavy vehicles such as tractors and trucks. Russia’s military tanks mostly burn diesel as well, though American tanks mainly use a kerosene-based aviation fuel.
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