The global movement to end the use of combustible cigarettes has gained support from scientists, regulators, community leaders, and governments, marking one of the most impactful health achievements we could reach in the next decade. After over 50 years of the “tobacco wars,” a future without traditional cigarettes is within sight.
Alternative tobacco delivery systems, such as heat-not-burn and vaping products, have created a safer “off-ramp” for adult smokers looking to quit. Governments in the U.S., U.K., Japan, and Canada have thoroughly studied these alternatives, concluding with conviction that they represent the future of tobacco control. These countries have embraced these products as a healthier alternative, driving significant reductions in smoking rates and putting them on a path toward eliminating combustible cigarettes.
The Maldives, however, seem to be choosing a different path. With a recent import ban on alternative tobacco products and now a proposal for massive tax increases on these alternatives, the Maldives appears ready to distance itself from this global health trend. The repercussions of this decision could be severe, potentially harming public health, discouraging foreign investment, and even diminishing the Maldives’ appeal as a tourist destination.
If this proposal goes forward, the Maldives will join a shrinking group of nations where adults may still be smoking cigarettes ten years from now, while most of the world moves closer to ending smoking altogether. Countries like Japan, the U.K., and the United States have already reduced their adult smoking rates by almost 50% in recent years, thanks to the availability of alternative products that are estimated to be 95%-99% less harmful than cigarettes. At their current rates, these nations could see adult smoking virtually disappear by 2034 — a remarkable public health success.
Unfortunately, the Maldives risks missing out on this progress by following a path similar to those taken by countries like Australia, India, and Thailand, where prohibitionist approaches have led to harmful outcomes. When governments pursue prohibition, they often fail to recognize the unintended consequences, as evidenced by Australia’s experience with illegal vaping and increased youth tobacco use.
Australia’s story should serve as a cautionary tale. Its strict regulations on vaping products have led to headlines like “Illegal vape sales in Perth attract organized crime threats as new vaping laws passed.” Beyond the rise of illicit markets, Australia has also seen a troubling increase in youth vaping. Among Australians aged 15 to 24, 13.3% were using e-cigarettes but not regular cigarettes in 2022-2023, up from just 2.3% in 2019. This surge in youth vaping and the empowerment of criminal markets demonstrate the failure of prohibitionist policies. Is this the direction the Maldives wants to take?
The Maldives stands at a crossroads. By aligning with the healthier global supply chain, it could join the ranks of progressive countries like the U.S., U.K., and Japan, benefiting from reduced smoking rates, increased public health, and greater foreign investment. Choosing the opposite path risks creating more challenges than it solves, isolating the Maldives from international health and business communities.
The choice is clear. Embracing a healthier tobacco supply chain won’t just be good for public health in the Maldives — it will signal to the world that the nation’s government is committed to modern, evidence-based policy. Now is the time for the Maldives to take the lead in this global health movement. Today’s Maldivian adult smokers are depending on the wisdom of the country’s present leadership. Tomorrow’s young Maldivians will thank today’s leaders in due time.
