The “invisible primary” of Republican presidential candidates positioning themselves to become the Wingnut alternative to Mitt Romney is now getting close to its first major landmarks: the “closing of the field” when Republicans stop fantasizing about late entries who will shake up the race, and the August 13 Iowa State GOP straw poll, which will likely end the campaigns of poorly financed also-rans who can’t show significant grassroots support in Iowa or other early states.
Although bored pundits will probably continue to offer implausible scenarios for late candidacies by Chris Christie or Jeb Bush right on through the autumn, the only real mystery left is whether Texas Gov. Rick Perry will enter the race. He will reportedly decide for or against by the end of this month.
Meanwhile, several campaigns are holding on by a thread, and will probably be liquidated (or reduced to a platform from which the candidates can make free debate appearances to sell their books or keep their names in the public eye) after the straw poll. The most obvious casualty of earlier events is Newt Gingrich, who never had much of a chance at the nomination even before a series of missteps chased off most of his staff. Rick Santorum’s all-abortion all-the-time candidacy hasn’t gone anywhere. Herman Cain is the candidate most likely to be “winnowed” in Ames. His earlier surge in support in the early states has subsided to a considerable extent. More importantly, his languorous campaign pace, reminiscent of 2008 candidate Fred Thompson, has frustrated his staff and supporters; in just the last couple of weeks, he’s lost his top staffers in both New Hampshire and Iowa. In the latter state, that couldn’t come at a worse time, when he needs the organizational heft to convert the cheers he generates with his stock speech into tangible support in the straw poll. His second quarter fundraising numbers, showing he raised just under $2.5 million, didn’t impress anybody.
The candidate most desperately in need of a strong showing in Ames is Tim Pawlenty, who continues to struggle in the polls and whose reported $4.2 million second-quarter haul was even less impressive than Cain’s, given T-Paw’s heavy expenses in Iowa. Anything other than a first or strong second-place finish in the straw poll could kill off Pawlenty entirely, eliminate the prospects of a “consensus” candidate who appeals equally to all of the GOP’s conservative factions, and set up a potentially protracted and divisive nomination contest between Romney and either Michele Bachmann or (if he runs) Rick Perry.
While a Perry candidacy excites a lot of observers, it remains a debatable proposition. Yes, on paper he looks formidable. He’s a candidate equally rooted in the Tea Party Movement and the Christian Right. He’s got a great economic “story” to tell, dubious as his claims really are to have generated Texas’ impressive (if generally low-wage) record of recent job growth. He’s considered good-looking by those who like the rugged Marlboro Man stereotype of masculinity. He’s a good stump speaker who enjoys campaigning far more than governing, and has no moral compunctions about serving up big platters of the rawest red meat. And he’s a proven fundraiser who has the important Republican Governors Association rolodex in his pocket.
On the other hand, a PPP poll just last week showed Perry losing a hypothetical general election contest to Barack Obama in his home state of Texas, performing worse than Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty or Herman Cain (and far worse than Mitt Romney). This sign that Perry has clay of feet in his cowboy boots could be a real problem, particularly if his message depicts him as the economic savior of the Lone Star State, whose residents would normally be expected to toss rose petals in his path to the White House.
Perry also has a timing problem. If he is to compete in the Iowa straw poll, he can’t delay his candidacy much longer. But announcing a campaign this month would significantly undermine the legitimacy of his much-ballyhooed August 6 prayer rally in Houston, dubbed “The Response,” which is reportedly intended to usher in a convergence of Christian Right support for a Perry candidacy. Getting in after Ames could be risky, since it could enable Michele Bachmann to become the celebrity national candidate of precisely the Tea Party/social conservative coalition that Perry would offer to lead.
Meanwhile, Bachmann is riding pretty high at the moment, though her own second-quarter fundraising numbers have yet to be revealed. She has a reputation as a champion fundraiser (she holds the all-time record for cup-rattling in a House race, having pulled in an astonishing $13 million for her 2010 re-election contest). Whatever she’s raised, it is unlikely to match Mitt Romney’s reported haul of just under $20 million. But it will almost certainly be more than her fellow Minnesotan T-Paw, who is presently struggling to get some right-wing leverage from association with their state’s current government shutdown.
All in all, the dynamics of the contest continue to pull the field even further to the Right, as Bachmann, Pawlenty and potentially Perry battle to become the anti-Romney in an atmosphere of partisan meta-conflict in Washington over the debt limit. The two dynamics, moreover, may be reinforcing each other: six candidates, including Romney and T-Paw, have now signed the maximalist “cut, cap and balance pledge” rejecting any debt limit increase that is not accompanied by deep cuts in domestic spending (without revenue measures), a cap on federal spending linked to a low percentage of GDP, and a balanced budget constitutional amendment that includes a super-majority requirement for tax increases. Bachmann is actually trying to outflank cut-cap-balance candidates on the right by demanding repeal of “ObamaCare” as a precondition for a debt limit increase. As we approach white-knuckle time in the shaping of the 2012 field, the GOP is spending little time worrying about how poorly it may be positioning itself to face Barack Obama.
Photo Credit: Iowa Politics