Congress is mired this week in a complex struggle over an omnibus appropriations bill (with the total amount dictated by the earlier deficit reduction agreement) linked to a continuation of unemployment benefits and payroll tax relief. It’s almost entirely a matter of partisan Kabuki theater at this point, and neither a collapse of negotiations (followed, presumably, by another short-term continuing resolution on appropriations) nor an agreement (within the current parameters of the fight) would produce a major wingnut meltdown. Republicans generally are trying to secure a measure forcing the administration, among other indignities, to build the controversial Keystone KL pipeline, but again, this is more of a partisan that a purely ideological concern.
But conservative activists are reaching a failsafe point in the presidential nomination contest, with less than three weeks to go (or less in actual campaign time, given the limitations in attention-span and tolerance for “comparative” messages imposed by Christmas) before the Iowa caucuses.
With Herman Cain having finally suspended his campaign, conservatives in Iowa and elsewhere are struggling to decide whether to get behind the current frontrunner, Newt Gingrich, as an alternative to the chronically disfavored Mitt Romney, or to find some way to unite behind other, previously failed candidacies like those of Perry or Bachmann (while very much a viable candidate in Iowa, Ron Paul is generally considered unacceptable as an actual nominee because of his foreign policy views, and Rick Santorum would need an Iowa miracle to become viable). Perry and Paul are spending extensively on campaign ads in Iowa, and Paul, in particular, has been pounding Gingrich for his many flip-flops, his ideological heresies, and his Washington ties. Iowa polls all show Gingrich in the lead at present, though at least one, from PPP, shows Gingrich losing ground with steadily eroding favorable/unfavorable ratios.
There’s one more Iowa debate on tap (tomorrow, sponsored by Fox), and some key endorsements still likely to come (notably from wingnut leaders Bob Vander Plaats of the Iowa FAMiLY Leader and Rep. Steve King; both could go for about anyone other than Romney). It’s anybody’s guess what will happen; Gingrich, Paul and Romney are all in a decent position to win a close split decision, though the bulk of polls still favor Gingrich, who is particularly strong among self-identified Republicans. Meanwhile, Gingrich has been gaining on Romney in New Hampshire, and has built huge leads in South Carolina and Florida. A Gingrich win in Iowa would probably mean the end for Perry, Bachmann and Santorum, and put Romney on the ropes; a Paul win would be nearly as good for Romney as a win himself, particularly if Gingrich fades notably, which could indicate that the other candidates’ attacks are having and will continue to have an effect.
At this point it’s worth noting that the nomination schedule features both an early January blitz, and then something of a lull, meaning that unless someone scores the early knockout with wins in all or nearly all the January states, then money, organization, and sheer endurance could become very large factors and the contest could extend at least to Super Tuesday in March, and perhaps into the post-April 1 period when states can award delegates on a statewide winner-take-all basis if they so choose. There’s already talk that if Gingrich wins big in January, Republican Establishment figures (alarmed by Gingrich’s very poor standing in the general electorate) could either mount a major push to force conservatives to accept Romney, or even get behind a very late candidacy for someone more acceptable than either Romney or Gingrich among Tea Party supporters, but who has less glaring weaknesses than those in the existing field.
With all these variables in play, the overriding reality is that going on three years after the outbreak of the Tea Party Movement, conservatives can’t agree on much in the GOP presidential campaign other than a general disdain for Mitt Romney. Reading major conservative opinion outlets like National Review you can find both warm reassessments of and vicious attacks on Gingrich, who is far and away the current national front-runner among conservative voters at the moment. There’s a lot of regret about how poorly Rick Perry has performed, amidst very occasional expressions of hope that the Texan’s campaign could be resurrected by a late surge in Iowa. It’s all, frankly, a mess, and the possibility of an outcome that will please Wingnut World from either an ideological or an electability point of view continues to decline as actual voting grows near.
Photo credit: Chase McAlpine