Given how events unfolded, it was never going to be easy for Kamala Harris. Many Democrats are convinced her campaign saved the party from an even worse result. To be fair, it achieved some real highs: she won the debate. But she never won the argument, at least not with the voters who mattered most.
The US election triggered a scary deja vu moment for those of us who had watched the 2019 UK general election from behind our sofas, hands over our eyes. The Democrats lost votes with almost everyone, almost everywhere, but, like Labour in the “red wall”, most dramatically with traditional heartland voters: working-class, low-paid, non-graduates. And, like Labour back in 2019, that lost connection with core voters had not happened overnight.
Working with the DC-based Progressive Policy Institute, we conducted post-election polling and focus groups with past Democrat voters who voted for Trump on 5 November. The work laid bare an anxious nation desperate for change. Be in no doubt, this was a change election: any candidate failing to offer the change the electorate craved had become a risky choice. Asking how voters felt about the results on 6 November, “relieved” was the word we heard most often.
Overwhelmingly, change focused on two issues: inflation and immigration. Trump enjoyed a clear lead on both. Sure, Harris had some popular policies (anti price-gouging, tax cuts, help for first-time buyers and small businesses), but these seemed sidelined in an overcrowded campaign, with voters concluding that she was not on their side and was too focused on “woke” issues.
Among working-class voters, 53% agreed the Dems had gone “too far in pushing a woke ideology”. They’ve “gone in a weird direction”, said one, “lost touch with our priorities”, said another. Worse still was the sense that any voter who disagreed with them was “a bad person”.
