issue: Economy

The EU’s War on Google…and Itself

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

On April 19, the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, admitted that the EU was “wrong to over-regulate and interfere too much.” Ironically, the very next day, the Commission’s office of competition issued a sweeping antitrust cased against Google. The complaint, filed by EU competition chief Margrethe Vestager, accused the search giant, among other items, of

requiring manufacturers to pre-install Google Search and Google’s Chrome browser and requiring them to set Google Search as default search service on their devices,  as a condition to license certain Google proprietary apps

The commission justified its case by saying that

this conduct ultimately harms consumers because they are not given as wide a choice as possible and because it stifles innovation.

I’m not an antitrust lawyer, so I’m not going to judge whether Vestager was right to bring this case under European law, or what her chances of winning are. But as an economist, this case is totally perverse. The likely impact if the EU wins its case: Higher prices for European consumers and small businesses, and slower innovation in areas such as the Internet of Things, where Europe has a potential competitive advantage.

Consider the current situation. Google spends enormous sums of money developing and upgrading its mobile operating system and apps, which are acknowledged as top quality. All of this intangible capital embodied in Android is effectively available, for free, to handset manufacturers, European consumers, app developers and small businesses, to use as they would.

From an economic perspective, it’s hard to beat free. In other words, the European economy, consumers, and workers get the full benefit of Google’s R&D spending on Android, without having to utilize scarce resources.  This has the benefit of spurring competition, app creation and smartphone use within Europe, and allowing the EU to keep up with the United States. Indeed, recent PPI research shows that Europe has 1.64 million App Economy jobs as of January 2016, almost as many as the United States. (PPI link)

Especially helped by Android are low-income consumers across the EU, who get a wide choice of inexpensive phones, if they want, with access to the full variety of Android apps. Indeed, the very market dominance that the complaint cites is the result of the success of Android in opening up the lower end of the smartphone market.  Fragmentation of the market will only have the effect of increasing prices in Europe, as manufacturers lose economies of scale.

Indeed, winning the case against Google is likely to divert Europe’s R&D spending, already lagging the US, away from innovation in the manufacturing/Internet of Things sector, where Europe can potentially take advantage of its strong manufacturing base to set new global standards. In that sense, this antitrust suit is at best a distraction, at worst a hindrance, to European long-term growth and job creation.

PPI Poll: Swing Voters In Swing States Hold Balance In 2016

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

In this era of political polarization, it is tempting to assume the political center no longer exists. If this were true, it would certainly simplify things for political candidates and their strategists. They could stop worrying about how to persuade unaligned voters and concentrate exclusively on mobilizing their core partisans. However, this is not the case. As this new Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) poll by veteran Democratic pollster Peter Brodnitz shows, Swing voters exist, and they hold the balance of power in key 2016 battleground states. For Democrats especially, this survey yields a clear lesson: To hold the White House, recapture the Senate, and reduce the Republican House majority, candidates must craft messages that appeal beyond the party’s base to a substantial body of voters who are not in a fixed ideological camp.

This survey examined the outlook and attitudes of Swing voters in four critical Swing states: Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada. Constituting about a fifth of the electorate in those states, Swing voters come at today’s major challenges with a perspective different from that of either party. In general, they are less ideological, less partisan, and less angry than base voters. They are pragmatists who are focused mainly on economic growth and competitiveness.

Swing voters give low approval ratings to both parties in Congress, but slightly higher approval ratings to Democrats (32% approve, 59% disapprove), than to Republicans (28% approve, 65% disapprove). While Republicans give their own Members of Congress better marks than Democrats, Republicans in Congress are underwater among their own voters by eleven points (43% approve, 54% disapprove). Democrats, on the other hand, largely approve of the jobs their Members of Congress are doing (73% approve, 24% disapprove).

There is widespread agreement among battleground voters on a number of matters:

  • Most battleground voters rate the economy as fair or poor as opposed to excellent or good. They believe that improving the economy should be the priority, that moving jobs overseas is a key economic problem, and that increasing access to education and job training is essential.
  • Most of them also believe that America’s economy is still strong, and that if people work hard, they can get ahead.
  • Almost all believe it is essential that American companies can compete globally and that workers benefit from that competition and success.
  • While Democrats are the most likely to believe the United States is the strongest economic power in the world (81% agree), most Swing voters (58% agree) and Republicans (61%) hold this view.
  • Despite all the populist rhetoric deployed in both parties’ nominating contests, the voters we interviewed don’t seem particularly angry. Swing voters tend to be worried about the economy and Democrats tend to be optimistic, but few described themselves as angry.

Most believe global competition – more than trade agreements – is the force driving away jobs. There is little support among Swing voters for ending trade agreements, and most believe the benefits of trade agreements outweigh the costs.

  • Almost all believe “most” Americans are not prepared for retirement.
  • Almost all believe increased investments in infrastructure, like roads and bridges, would improve the U.S. economy.

In general, Swing voters are attracted to new ideas for stimulating growth — regulatory improvement, low corporate taxes intended to increase competitiveness and keep jobs from moving overseas, and a robust career pathways system that’s always there to help workers acquire marketable skills.

 

Download “2016.04-PPI-Poll_Swing-Voters-in-Swing-States.pdf”

The Daily Beast: Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Are Delusional on Trade Policy

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

In this campaign season of populist anger and demagoguery, bad ideas are bubbling to the surface like marsh gas. Among the worst is protectionism, which would wreak havoc on a U.S. economy that’s finally picking up steam.

Both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have seized on trade as a convenient scapegoat for the nation’s economic woes. There’s deep irony here. The popular frustrations on which they feed stem mainly from the productivity and wage slump America has experienced since 2000. Yet their proposed fix—shredding international treaties and walling off the U.S. economy—is a textbook formula for economic stagnation.

It’s a perfect negative feedback loop. And it won’t be the “one percent” who suffer if the populists get their way; it will be U.S. companies with global supply chains and millions of middle-class American workers and consumers.

Continue reading at The Daily Beast.

U.S. News & World Report: The Weapon Against Inequality That 2016 Forgot

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

If the democratic candidates are serious about combating inequality, they should start by embracing education reform.

For education reformers, the 2016 presidential primaries have been a wasteland. The Republican circus has produced many memorable moments, but few if any have touched on education.

Even on the Democratic side, education has been virtually invisible. The major issue is rising inequality, and public education has long been our society’s major instrument to combat that problem. Yet neither of the candidates has said anything positive about the one strategy that has made a real difference for low-income children: charter schools.

Reducing inequality without reforming our education system is probably impossible, because the tide is flowing so strongly in the opposite direction. Twenty-five years ago only a third of public school students were low-income (eligible for a free or reduced-price lunch). Today, for the first time since the data has been compiled, a majority are low income.

Read more at U.S. News & World Report.

PRESS RELEASE: PPI Report: Tax Prep Chains Target Low-Income Workers

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 14, 2016

Contact: Cody Tucker, ctucker@ppionline.org, 202-775-0106,
or Steven Chlapecka, schlapecka@ppionline.org, 202-525-3926

PPI Report: Tax Prep Chains Target Low-Income Workers

Taxpayers eligible for the EITC spend as much as 22 percent of their refund to file

WASHINGTON—National tax preparation chains continue to exploit the working poor, many of whom spend a significant portion of a key federal anti-poverty tax credit—the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)—just to pay for filing their taxes, according to a report released today by the Progressive Policy Institute.

The report, coauthored by Paul Weinstein Jr., PPI Senior Fellow and Director of the Public Management Graduate Program at the Johns Hopkins University, and Bethany Patten, a policy and research manager at Excellent Schools Detroit, found that workers eligible for the EITC continue to spend large sums—averaging around $400—at national tax preparation chains.

In a recent survey of storefront operations in Baltimore and Washington, D.C., they found that those eligible for the EITC, who are typically low-income workers with children, would spend between 13 and 22 percent of their refund this year at local tax preparation outlets. In Baltimore, where the average EITC refund is $2,335, the cost to file ranged from $309 at H&R Block to $509 at Liberty Tax Service. In Washington, D.C., where the average EITC refund is $2,351, the cost to file ranged from $315 at H&R Block to $485 at Liberty Tax Service.

Additionally, Weinstein and Patten found that national tax preparation chains continue to target EITC filers by locating in areas where the largest numbers of EITC claims are made. ZIP codes with the highest level of EITC filers have approximately 75 percent more tax preparers per filer than moderate-EITC ZIP codes. The study found “a clear relationship” between the share of EITC filers in a ZIP code and the area’s saturation of tax preparation chains.

Lastly, government studies, as well as those by nonprofit organizations, consistently show a high error rate for returns filed on behalf of EITC beneficiaries by paid tax preparers. Two studies by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found an error rate of 89 and 94 percent respectively. And last year the head of the GAO stated that in an analysis of IRS data, an estimated “60 percent of returns prepared by preparers contained errors.”

“These realities demand a public response. But proposals to further complicate the tax code in the name of reducing fraud would only make the problem worse,” write Weinstein and Patten. “Instead, U.S. policymakers should establish a national goal of reducing the dependence of low-wage workers on paid tax preparers. Specifically, this would mean taking steps to simplify EITC rules and requirements, by requiring all paid preparers to take competency exams, increasing access to free filing programs, and/or streamlining the federal income tax code in its entirety. A combination of these reforms would allow low-income workers to keep more of their tax credit while also raising standards within the paid tax preparation sector.”

The report follows up on a 2002 study by researchers at PPI and Brookings Institution, which found that tax preparations services, clustered in low-income neighborhoods, cost workers eligible for EITC refunds about $1.75 billion.

The Earned Income Tax Credit was established in 1974 as an anti-poverty measure. It has become the federal government’s largest safety net program, last year providing $66.7 billion to 27.5 million Americans. It is especially valuable to low- and middle-income workers, since it provides a direct credit against taxes owed rather than a deduction from reported income. It is also a refundable credit, meaning an eligible worker can receive a refund even if the credit exceeds what would have been his or her federal income tax liability.

Download, The Price of Paying Taxes II: How paid tax preparer fees are diminishing the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)

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The Price of Paying Taxes II: How paid tax preparer fees are diminishing the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

In 2002, researchers from the Brookings Institution and the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) wrote a groundbreaking study entitled “The Price of Paying Taxes: How Tax Preparation and Refund Loan Fees Erode the Benefits of the EITC.” This report was one of the first to highlight the costly dependence of low-wage workers on national tax preparation chains. The study found that tax preparation and other services cost eligible workers an estimated $1.75 billion in Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) refunds; that paid preparer services tended to cluster in low-income neighborhoods where large numbers of families claim the tax credit; and, that EITC recipients in Washington, D.C. paid, on average, 10 percent of their tax credit refund to paid preparers.

Subsequent studies by the federal government as well as private researchers have reaffirmed several of the findings from the Brookings and PPI research, while also highlighting other problematic aspects of storefront tax preparers. These include significant error rates on filings and a heavy reliance on EITC filings to generate revenue. Since the “Price of Paying Taxes” study appeared, the practice of charging exorbitant extra fees for filing EITC forms with returns has persisted and grown.

As a longtime advocate for making work pay—PPI called for dramatically expanding the EITC in its very first policy report in 1989—the Institute decided to revisit the 2002 study and take a fresh look at what it costs low-income workers to file tax returns. Our 2016 update yields three major conclusions:

  • Workers eligible for the EITC continue to spend large sums—averaging around $400—at national tax preparation chains. In a recent survey of storefront operations in Baltimore and Washington, D.C. we found that low-income taxpayers can expect to spend between 13 and 22 percent of the average EITC refund to file their taxes.
  • National tax preparer chains continue to target EITC filers by locating in areas where the largest numbers of EITC claims are made. Zip codes with the highest level of EITC filers have approximately 75 percent more tax preparers, formally referred to as Electronic Return Originators or EROs, per filer than moderate-EITC zip codes. Large tax preparer chains tend to cluster in high-EITC zip codes.
  • Government studies as well as those by nonprofit organizations consistently show a high error rate for returns filed on behalf of EITC beneficiaries by paid tax preparers. Two studies by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found an error rate of 89 and 94 percent respectively. And last year the head of the GAO stated that in an analysis of IRS data, an estimated “60 percent of returns prepared by preparers contained errors.”

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Download “2016.04-Weinstein_Patten_The-Price-of-Paying-Takes-II.pdf”

CNN: America needs more than populist message

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

With Donald Trump and Ted Cruz locked in a bitter battle for the Republican nomination, the stakes in 2016 rise dramatically. The likely victory of either one of these deeply flawed candidates will give Democrats a chance not only to hold the White House, but also to realign U.S. politics. No wonder Republicans are panicking.

To seize the opportunity, however, Hillary Clinton will need to transcend the limits of a “populist” message based on identity politics, economic victimhood and redistribution. Thus far such themes have dominated the nomination battle with Sen. Bernie Sanders, but they won’t help Democrats forge a broader political coalition that includes suburban moderates, college-educated independents and many Republicans who are aghast at the prospect of branding the White House with a giant “T.”
Of course, with yet another caucus victory on Saturday, this time in Wyoming, Sanders will stay in the race, if only to keep tugging Clinton to the left. But Clinton needs to resist this ideological gravity, because Sanders’ left-wing populism is not an effective answer to the right-wing populism that Trump channels with such diabolic cunning.
Before the Bernie Bots clank into action, let me hasten to say I’m not positing moral equivalence between Sanders and Trump. Sanders is honest, principled and decent; Trump is, well, none of those things. But the lifelong socialist’s dream of turning America into a paternalistic, European-style welfare state isn’t the right prescription for what ails our country.
Continue reading at CNN.

Forbes: The Progressive Policy Institute’s Push to Cut Bureaucracy

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

Forbes contributor Jared Meyer recently interviewed PPI’s chief economic strategist Dr. Michael Mandel on regulatory reform and economic growth.

The Progressive Policy Institute recently released a report titled “Unleashing Innovation & Growth.” The report covers a comprehensive list of public policy topics, including reforming America’s growing level of federal regulation. In what follows, PPI’s chief economic strategist Michael Mandel explains why pro-growth regulatory policies offer an alternative to the populist sentiments that are influencing both sides of the political spectrum.”

Read the interview in its entirety at Forbes.

PPI Tackles Tax Disputes in Europe

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

Last week, PPI led a bipartisan delegation of 10 high-ranking Congressional staffers to London and Brussels, which is still grieving in the aftermath of the March 22 terrorist attacks. Our visit there so soon after the atrocity was greeted warmly as an act of transatlantic solidarity.

The Digital Economy Study Group was the third such delegation PPI has taken to Europe in as many years. Our mission is to engage influential government and private leaders in exploring common ways to tackle our mutual dilemma of slow growth and stalled social mobility. We believe more innovation and growth are the best antidotes to the virulent strains of populism that are warping democratic politics on both sides of the Atlantic.

Our trip began last Tuesday in London at 10 Downing Street, where Daniel Korski, deputy head of policy for Prime Minister David Cameron, briefed our delegation on the government’s efforts—including a low-tax patent or innovation box—to encourage greater digital investment in the UK. Then it was on to Westminster, where Tory MP Ian Liddell-Grainger led the group on an entertaining tour of Parliament, which also included a brisk dissection of Britain’s controversial Pay As You Earn (PAYE) tax.

Also at Parliament, Labour MP Meg Hillier, Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, defended the government’s diverted profits tax as a response to public anger over the tax avoidance strategies of international companies. At breakfast the next day, veteran Labour MP John Spellar offered a trenchant analysis of how economic change and slow growth have scrambled British politics and led directly to June’s “Brexit” referendum. At UK Treasury, Financial Secretary David Gauke explained how recent reforms to corporate tax rules have resulted in greater foreign investment and business creation.

On Thursday, we took the Eurostar to Brussels, where the U.S. Mission to the European Union briefed us on difficult aspects of the US-EU economic relationship, including the new “Privacy Shield” agreement, international tax policy, and the TTIP trade pact. At the European Commission’s powerful Competition directorate, the group had a robust exchange of views with officials overseeing “state aid” investigations that have called into question tax agreements negotiated by EU member states and U.S. companies. We expect these issues resurfaced this week when Commissioner Margarethe Vestager visited Washington for talks with Congress and the administration.

Later, officials at DG CONNECT briefed the group on Europe’s efforts to establish a digital single market and plans for “platform regulation” to create space for European tech companies to grow. On Friday, the DG GROW team discussed their wide-ranging efforts to spur entrepreneurship and digital skills building across Europe. The growing gulf between U.S. and European views on tax policy also was the subject of a lunch with Bart Van Humbeeck, economic advisor to Kris Peeters, Vice-Prime Minister of Belgium, hosted by Paul Hofheinz of the Lisbon Council. Our last official meeting was with PPI friend Ann Mettler, Head of the European Strategy Centre, an in-house think tank for EU President Jean-Claude Junker.

These frank and in-depth discussions enabled us and Congressional staff to get a better understanding of the sometimes byzantine workings of the EU, as well as its often different perspectives on issues vital to both sides—privacy and cross-border data flows, digital innovation, trade, tax, copyright and more. The visits also have impressed on our European friends that U.S. policymakers are paying closer attention to such issues. PPI’s hope is to nudge these sometimes contentious conversations to common ground, and strengthen the fraying bonds of transatlantic economic cooperation.

Washington Examiner: Should we care less about inequality?

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

Jason Russell quotes PPI President Will Marshall on public opinion towards economic inequality and how it can change over time.

“If everybody else is rising then really, in this country, there isn’t a strong appetite for punishing wealth creators,” Will Marshall, president of the liberal Progressive Policy Institute, said Wednesday at an inequality discussion hosted by Economics21 at the Manhattan Institute (my last employer). “Nobody cared about inequality in the late ’90s because all groups were rising.”

Read the full article at the Washington Examiner.

Press Release: PPI Unveils New Blueprint for Shared Prosperity

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 15, 2016

Contact: Cody Tucker, 202-775-0106
or ctucker@ppionline.org

A Progressive Alternative to Populism

PPI Unveils New Blueprint for Shared Prosperity

WASHINGTON—The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) today released Unleashing Innovation and Growth: A Progressive Alternative to Populism, a new blueprint for renewing America’s economic dynamism.

The plan offers an array of creative proposals for accelerating the “digitization” of the physical economy; lowering regulatory obstacles to innovation and entrepreneurship; launching a new public works push; adopting pro-growth tax reform; grooming the world’s most talented workers; and enabling working families to escape poverty and build middle class wealth.

The blueprint also takes aim at the populist anger that has figured prominently in campaign 2016:

…[P]opulists do Americans no favors by claiming the economic game is hopelessly rigged against them, that the leaders they elect are incompetents, or that our democracy is rancid with corruption. None of these claims is true, and such demagoguery undermines public confidence in America’s boundless capacity for self-renewal. Populist anger fosters an ‘us versus them’ mentality that, by reinforcing political tribalism and social mistrust, can only make it harder to build consensus around economic initiatives that benefit all Americans.

“We believe progressives owe U.S. voters a hope-inspiring alternative to populist outrage and the false remedies of nativism, protectionism and democratic socialism,” writes Will Marshall, PPI President.

“I encourage anyone looking for optimistic ideas to create more jobs, wealth, and prosperity for hard working Americans to read PPI’s new report using innovation to spur growth,” said Congressman Ron Kind (D-Wis.), Chairman of the New Democrat Coalition. “This report is full of forward thinking policy initiatives that help grow the American economy.”

“In the midst of today’s populist uprising, it’s up to our leaders to recognize the real reasons why our economy isn’t working for everyone and to fight for effective solutions,” said Governor Jack Markell (D-Del.). “PPI’s blueprint gives policymakers a roadmap to create opportunity for all Americans by harnessing the unstoppable forces of globalization and technological innovation, while opposing the impractical, and sometimes dangerous, proposals offered by the political extremes.”

The anger on which populists feed is rooted in a real economic problem: America has been stuck in a slow growth trap since 2000. This long spell of economic stagnation has held down wages and living standards and shrunk the middle class. What the nation needs is a forward-looking plan for moving the U.S. economy into high gear. Instead, as the PPI blueprint notes, today’s populists peddle nostalgia for our country’s past industrial glory but offer few practical ideas for building new American prosperity in today’s global knowledge economy.

Unleashing Innovation and Growth seeks to fill this vacuum in the presidential campaign, offering bold ideas for unleashing the collective ingenuity of the American people—harnessing disruptive change, raising skills, lowering tax and regulatory barriers to individual initiative and creativity, and experimenting with innovative ways to rebuild middle class wealth and enable more Americans to exit poverty.

Summary of Key Proposals

Unleash Innovation
• Spread innovation across the economy: Adopt a new “Innovation Platform” aimed at stimulating public and private investment in new ideas and enterprises, and at diffusing innovation across the entire economy.
• Improve the regulatory climate for innovation: Tackle the mounting costs of regulatory accumulation, the constant layering of new rules atop old ones; Make systemic changes to regulatory agencies to make promoting investment, innovation and new enterprises part of their core mission; Rein in occupational licensing requirements that screen out many low-income entrepreneurs; Lift outdated restrictions on lending to small business; give businesses incentives to offer more flexible work, including paid leave.
• Innovate our way to clean growth: Implement a more innovative energy strategy that simultaneously advances two vital interests: powering economic growth and assuring a healthy environment; Recognize that, for the foreseeable future, the U.S. and the world will have to tap all fuels—renewable, nuclear, and fossil—to meet growing energy demand and sustain global economic growth; Institute a nationwide carbon tax to curb greenhouse emissions while driving investment to clean and efficient energy.
• Democratize trade: Sell more of America’s highly competitive exports to a growing global middle class; promote the free flow of data across global borders; support innovative trade agreements, like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), that lift labor, environment and human rights standards in developing countries and enable more Americans to benefit from trade; Seize new opportunities for U.S. small businesses and entrepreneurs to use low-cost digital platforms to tap into global growth.

Align Fiscal Policy with Innovation and Growth
• Embrace pro-growth tax reform: Advocate for a dramatic shift from income to consumption taxes to stimulate investment in productive economic activities rather than those favored by the current tax code; Close loopholes that benefit special interests and dramatically simplify taxes for most Americans; Raise enough money to cut corporate income taxes down to globally competitive levels, and reduce taxes that penalize innovation and hiring.
• Modernize public works: Accurately measure the true economic impact of infrastructure spending; open infrastructure markets to private capital; define a strategic role for Washington through a national infrastructure bank; impose firm deadlines on project approvals and licensing process.

Groom the World’s Most Talented Workers
• Reinvent public school: Champion new models of school governance that enable more school autonomy and innovation, more customized learning, rigorous standards, and genuine accountability and results.
• Create new pathways into middle class jobs: Create a more promising approach to “career pathways” by combining classroom training and work experience through a sequence of jobs, within or across firms in an industry, and a sequence of credentials that signal their growing skill levels.
• Cut college costs for everyone: Rein in costs and decrease debt by encouraging colleges to offer three-year degrees rather than the traditional four-year program and focus policies on competency, rather than credit hours.

Build Middle Class Wealth
• Narrow the wealth gap with universal pensions: Champion “universal pension” accounts that would enable all workers to save for retirement, navigate the maze of tax-favored retirement plans, and take their pensions with them when changing jobs.
• Help families save for homeownership: Tackle the twin problems of declining homeownership and souring housing costs for both owners and renters by creating a new, tax-preferred mechanism for down payment savings—“Home K”—to lower obstacles to homeownership, like tight credit and down payment requirements, for first-time homebuyers and to promote savings.

Fight Poverty with Empowerment
• Empower people with smart phones: Use modern technology to cut through bureaucratic barriers to government safety net programs, consolidate benefit streams, enable people living in poverty more access to the information they need, and apply online for social supports; Encourage federal, state, and local governments to create online H.O.P.E. (Health, Opportunity, and Personal Empowerment) accounts and action plans.
• Expand housing choices for low-income Americans: Convert some federal rent subsidies into incentives for homeownership to relieve the burden on low-income families of high housing costs and reduce the waiting list for subsidized housing, without raising taxes or adding to the federal deficit.

Download Unleashing Innovation and Growth: A Progressive Alternative to Populism.

Unleashing Innovation and Growth: A Progressive Alternative to Populism

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

As Americans choose a new president in 2016, populist anger dominates the campaign. To hear Donald Trump or Senator Bernie Sanders tell it, America is either a global doormat or a sham democracy controlled by the “one percent.” These dark narratives are caricatures, but they do stem from a real dilemma: America is stuck in a slow- growth trap that holds down wages and living standards. How to break this long spell of economic stagnation is the central question in this election.

Today’s populists peddle nostalgia for our country’s past industrial glory but offer few practical ideas for building a new American prosperity in today’s global knowledge economy. Progressives owe U.S. voters a hopeful alternative to populist outrage and the false panaceas of nativism, protectionism, and democratic socialism. What America needs is a forward-looking plan to unleash innovation, stimulate productive investment, groom the world’s most talented workers, and put our economy back on a high-growth path. It’s time to banish fear and pessimism and trust instead in the liberal and individualist values and enterprising culture that have always made America great.

Download Unleashing Innovation and Growth: A Progressive Alternative to Populism

Washington Post: The new Democratic Party proposal to rival Bernie Sanders’ socialism

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

Simplicity is one of Bernie Sanders’ great strengths: Corporations and the rich have rigged the economy. His solutions sound simple, even when the plans behind them are complicated: college for all, health care for all, tax the rich, break up big banks. He trails Hillary Clinton in presidential delegates to this point, and he remains an underdog for the Democratic nomination, but Sanders has already pulled Clinton, and the party, toward a more populist, more socialist policy agenda, thanks in part to that clarity of message.

The centrist Democrats who oppose that leftward lurch have struggled to match his simplicity. They tend to view the economy through a lens of skills and adaptation, not power and treachery. Many of them pushed in the 1990s, under President Bill Clinton, to expand global trade and deregulate the financial sector. They now concede those efforts did not go according to script, particularly for middle-class workers, but they are not calling for a full rewrite in response.

Their risk, in this election and moving forward, is to define themselves solely as anti-Democratic-socialist – the folks who don’t like the stuff that a lot of Democrats like about Sanders.

The Progressive Policy Institute is the latest centrist Democratic institution to try to counter that image. Today it will release what its president, Will Marshall, calls a “radical” agenda to get America working for the working class again. The report is called “Unleashing Innovation and Growth: a Progressive Alternative to Populism,” and it is organized around a straightforward, if not perfectly simple, principle.

Read more at The Washington Post

PRESS RELEASE: New PPI Report Links Future U.S. Productivity to Mobile Broadband Availability

Posted on by The Progressive Policy Institute

Study finds that Next-Generation Wireless Networks Could Add Nearly $3 Trillion to U.S. GDP by 2030; Increase Economic Output by 11 Percent

WASHINGTON—A new policy report released today by the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) examines the long-term relationship between mobile broadband and U.S. economic growth and relates it to current public policy questions.

The report, authored by PPI Chief Economic Strategist Michael Mandel, focuses on the year 2030 and considers the economic implications of next generation wireless networks for long-term productivity growth and living standards. The result could be an acceleration of productivity growth in the physical industries that adds roughly $2.7 trillion (in 2015 dollars) to U.S. GDP by 2030, according to the report. This translates into an 11 percent increase in economic output, which is equivalent to boosting the average annual growth rate by 0.7 percentage points.

“Creating vastly more wireless capacity is essential for getting the United States out of the slow-growth trap we are currently stuck in,” Mandel writes. “In order to catalyze the next round of spectrum-enabled economic expansion, policymakers need to focus on freeing up multiples of the current amount of spectrum—both for licensed and unlicensed uses—while creating an economic environment in which it is profitable to build and maintain a greatly expanded number of cell sites.

“Conversely, if policymakers fail to free up enough spectrum, or free up more spectrum for unlicensed rather than licensed operations, or impose regulations that reduce the return on investment that currently fuels spending on telecom infrastructure build-out, the likely outcome will be that the physical industries—which make up the greater part of the economy—will fail to achieve their productivity potential. In that event, all Americans will suffer.”

“PPI’s paper provides concrete evidence that next-generation wireless networks will be key to transforming our economy and drive economic growth by over 10 percent. This report underscores the importance of the FCC’s upcoming 600 MHz auction and spectrum frontiers effort, as well as the need to identify the next bands of spectrum for wireless use to fuel our mobile-first lives,” said Meredith Attwell Baker, President and CEO, CTIA. “We remain committed to working with all interested parties to free up more spectrum—both licensed and unlicensed—so that the world’s best mobile industry can provide our nation with almost $3 trillion in productivity gains.”

This report makes three main points.

• Slow productivity growth today across much of the economy is correlated with the failure of “physical” industries such as manufacturing, health care, and construction to make good use of digital technologies, compared to “digital” industries such as professional services, finance, and entertainment. PPI estimates that the physical industries, which make up roughly 80 percent of the private sector, account for only 35 percent of private info-tech investment, and only 40 percent of the telecom usage. A recent paper from the McKinsey Global Institute estimates that the United States has only reached 18 percent of its potential for digitization.
• PPI suggests that successfully digitizing physical industries will require a vast increase in remote sensors and remote-controlled devices such as cars, drones, and construction equipment. Cisco forecasts that M2M wireless traffic in the United States, including wearables, will rise from 3 percent to 11 percent of all mobile data by 2020. In this paper, PPI further projects that IoT related M2M communications will account for roughly 35-47 percent of mobile data communications by 2030.
• Achieving this level of connectivity and productivity improvement will require a sharp increase in the capacity of the nation’s mobile broadband networks. The nature of the capacity increase will depend on the development of technology. Using an analysis based on historical trends, we project that by 2030 it will be necessary to have more than 1900 MHz of spectrum in the sub-millimeter wave (mmW) bands (3 times the current availability) and at least 1.2 million cell sites (4 times the current level) in order to fully enable the IoT-driven productivity gains we document in this new paper.

Download “Long-term U.S. Productivity Growth and Mobile Broadband: The Road Ahead”

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