Kahlenberg in Gothamist: Supreme Court Case Could Affect Admissions Reforms for NYC Specialized Schools

[…]

The court’s guidance could also affect reforms not just aimed at changing the racial makeup of selective schools, but also the economic diversity of such schools, said Richard Kahlenberg, an education and housing researcher for the Progressive Policy Institute, who has opposed race-based affirmative action programs but supported economic-based affirmative action.

A ruling for the plaintiffs, Kahlenberg said, could make it easier for conservatives to sue school districts over economic race-neutral affirmative action programs.

He added: “That’s the worry — that you freeze in an unfair status quo, and any reform that negatively impacts white or Asian students would be cause for concern among those on the right.”

[…]

Read more in Gothamist.

Was This a Foreign Policy Election?

Welcome to a special post-midterms edition of Domain Awareness! Tuesday night’s Democratic victories are poised to usher in an entirely blue Congress come January 2027, with major implications for defense and national security policy. Below, find PPI’s analysis on some of the major storylines to watch in the lame-duck session and beyond.

THIS WEEK’S
TOP STORIES

Was This a Foreign Policy Election?

By Danielle Steitz

As Republican politicians and party officials grapple with how to move forward after devastating electoral results, party leaders from Vice President JD Vance to Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have all pointed fingers at the same leading cause of voters’ nationwide rejection of Republican candidates: the deeply unpopular war with Iran. As the war initially pitched as a three-week operation drags into its ninth month with approval ratings hovering in the low-to-mid 30s, its financial impacts have hit Americans’ wallets hard. NBC News’s latest data shows a 37.5% increase in national gas prices since the start of the Iran War, while the price of food was 2.5% higher in September 2026 than September 2025 — a major blow to Republicans in an election cycle where 4 in 10 voters cited the economy as the top issue facing the country.

PPI Expert Assessment: 

Danielle Steitz, Director of National Security Policy: A number of remarkable things not seen in decades happened on Election Day: Texas candidates won every statewide race, many for the first time since the 1990s; Senator-elect Annie Andrews broke a 28-year Republican hold on the Senate in South Carolina; Congressman-elect Sam Forstag is the first Democrat elected to Congress in Montana in three decades. For many online policy commentators and talking heads, it seemed as though the 2026 midterm elections, full of surprising events, had turned into that rarest of things — a foreign policy election. These commentators were not alone in their belief that the deeply unpopular Iran War had turned the electoral tides against Republican majorities (see the list of Republicans above who stated the same). It is undeniable that the conflict represents two major broken promises by President Donald Trump from his 2024 campaign, lower costs for Americans and no new wars, and that voters expressed their disapproval and anger at the ballot box. However, can this result be seen as a repudiation of Trump’s foreign policy writ large?

The short answer is that while foreign policy experts and political junkies across America and the rest of the Western world might hope that this result means a return to normalcy in American foreign relations, this election simply was not a referendum on foreign policy. It was a cost-of-living election where the two clearest causes of increased prices just so happen to be foreign policy choices in the form of the Iran War and tariffs. Those who assert the election results to be a clear sign that their preferred course for Democratic or American foreign policy is the only path forward — that it means Democrats should “truly become the antiwar party” or that the alienation of allies and “how we show up in the world” were motivating factors for voters — should be paid no heed. When fewer than 1 in 10 voters say that foreign policy is their top issue, it’s best to take them at their word and to recognize, in the words of James Carville, that “it’s the economy, stupid.”

Knives Out for Pete Hegseth? 

By Danielle Steitz

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has never boasted strong support from congressional Republicans — his 51-50 confirmation vote required Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking support — but with the economic implications of America’s war with Iran front and center in voters’ ballot-box calculus, the party’s desire to pin the blame on Hegseth seems to have hit a new high. NBC News reports that President Trump has told allies he’s considering replacing Hegseth, who has drawn the ire of Democrats and Republicans alike over the past two years and who could face a vote on his impeachment as soon as the House returns to town thanks to articles introduced by Republican congressman Thomas Massie.

PPI Expert Assessment: 

Danielle Steitz, Director of National Security Policy: Pete Hegseth has won himself very few friends on Capitol Hill during his tenure at the Pentagon. He has exhibited a defiant and dismissive attitude towards congressional oversight that has frustrated both Democrats and Republicans, failing to communicate about major personnel decisions and the administration’s Iran strategy and leaving Congress in the dark. Hegseth’s partisan push for a $350 billion party-line reconciliation bill and a $60 billion Iran War supplemental further irritated both parties, particularly as Democrats were excluded from classified budget briefings in a break with decades of bipartisan precedent. While Massie’s vote in a lame-duck Republican House is unlikely to succeed, Hegseth is already in the crosshairs of Democrats like Congressmen Jason Crow and Pat Ryan, who are eager for his impeachment. Although Trump has so far publicly stood by his Defense Secretary, he has also stated that Hegseth would be “very popular” if selected to fill Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn’s seat. Trump has also acknowledged that it would be much easier to confirm a replacement in the lame-duck session while the Senate is still under Republican control, providing a smoother path to confirmation for someone like rumored contender Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.

Changes Coming to Defense Committees

By Danielle Steitz

The membership and composition of the congressional defense committees will look drastically different come January 2027. In the Senate, the retirements of Gary Peters, Jeanne Shaheen, and Joni Ernst, as well as a still-uncalled race for Dan Sullivan, leave several vacancies on the Senate Armed Services Committee for incoming chairman Jack Reed to fill. The Senate Appropriations Committee will need a new lead Republican after Susan Collins lost her bid for reelection, and the Defense subcommittee is losing Mitch McConnell, Richard Durbin, and Shaheen to retirement, with another vacancy potentially arising if Cindy Hyde-Smith loses a close race in Mississippi.

Turning to the House, several HASC Republicans were on the losing end of some of the most surprising races of the midterms. Some races are still uncalled, but if current vote margins hold, HASC is poised to see the departure of 14 Republican members to retirement or losses, with longtime members Rob Wittman, Mike Turner, and Scott DesJarlais as some of the biggest names not to win reelection. While less turnover is expected on HAC-D, with only David Valadao’s loss called so far and Mario Diaz-Balart still narrowly leading, the House Intelligence Committee is also poised for a big shakeup on the Republican side, with 5 current members either retiring or having lost their reelection campaigns. Meanwhile, the incoming Democratic class boasts a new crop of military veterans, increasing the number of Democrats with military backgrounds to at least 33 and serving as the foundation for a new group of national security leaders in Congress.

PPI Expert Assessment: 

Danielle Steitz, Director of National Security Policy: Not only will the chairmanship transition from Republicans to Democrats on these committees, but given the projected margins in both the House and the Senate, the ratio of party representation looks poised to shift heavily towards Democrats as well. No surprises are anticipated in chairman selection; Sen. Jack Reed and Rep. Adam Smith, the current ranking members on SASC and HASC, appear unlikely to face any competition for their gavels. While negotiations between party leaders to set the actual ratios will take place over the next month and a half, expect to see some heavy weighting in Democrats’ favor on House committees like Appropriations and Armed Services, and increased Dem representation on their counterpart committees in the Senate.

What We’re Reading

Statement on HASC Democrats’ Priorities for the 120th Congress from Congressman Adam Smith (D-WA)

Rep. Adam Smith, current ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, is set to take the gavel in January for a committee rich with bipartisan tradition, but which faces the Herculean task of balancing oversight of a less-than-transparent Pentagon with advancing good and thoughtful defense policy. Smith outlines oversight as the top priority, with HASC bringing back its Oversight & Investigations subcommittee to scrutinize illegal and unauthorized military activity in Iran and the Caribbean as well as potential conflicts of interest in the award of Pentagon contracts. He also points to the need to set a “realistic and sustainable approach” to national security and defense budgets, continuity of acquisition reform efforts, and a focus on undoing the culture of politicization around military and civilian personnel management.

Marshall in The Times: How Democrat James Talarico Won His Senate Race and Turned Texas Blue

[…]

Moderate Democrats will point to Talarico’s breakthrough victory in Texas as evidence that only centrist candidates can appeal to swing voters in red states. He is already viewed by some as a potential presidential candidate in 2028.

“If we’re going to be serious about winning back red states, then we have to pick candidates who are suited to the electorates,” said Will Marshall, a former ally of Bill Clinton and head of the Progressive Policy Institute, a moderate Democrat think tank. Referring to the Democratic Socialists of America, a left-wing group, he said: “The DSA types aren’t going to compete. They’re not going to win in Texas. But candidates like Talarico can.”

[…]

Keep reading in The Times.

Marshall in The Washington Sun: Experts Describe the Midterm Results in One Word

[…]

Blowback

I’m really struck by how much tonight’s GOP debacle reflects President Donald Trump’s bad decisions — on policy, on candidates and on his midterm redistricting ploy.

Voters, including many who supported him two years ago, offered an emphatic thumbs down on his signature initiatives — especially tariffs and his impulsive attack on Iran — which have made working families’ cost-of-living crisis worse. Then there’s Trump’s spectacularly bad judgment in foisting weak candidates — like Ken Paxton, Michael Whatley, Darline Graham and Vivek Ramaswamy — on his party. He sure can’t pick ’em! This enabled Democrats to pull off stunning upsets deep in the red zone and perhaps create more battleground states. Nor have the president’s imperious instructions to GOP state leaders to gerrymander their way to victory paid off. In fact, it appears that Republicans are even managing to lose races in districts redrawn to give them a supposedly insurmountable advantage.

Midterm setbacks are common, but it’s hard to think of another midterm election in which a sitting president did more to create the basic conditions for his party’s sweeping defeat. This is a catastrophe for Trump and for Republicans who have obeyed him with cultish fervor.

[…]

Continue reading in The Washington Sun.

The Last President to Defend a General Tariff Increase: Herbert Hoover

Fact: The last president to defend a general tariff increase: Herbert Hoover.

THE NUMBERS: Incumbent party losses –

1930

2026

House

-49

-45?

Senate

  -5

  -8?

Governors

  -9

  -5?

WHAT THEY MEAN:

Poli sci pioneer E.E. Schattschneider’s “Politics, Pressures, and the Tariff,” a 1935 study of the “Smoot-Hawley” tariff bill — technically the Tariff Act of 1930, signed by Herbert Hoover in June of 1930 — remains a classic analysis of lobbying, interest group politics, and American ‘policymaking’ at close range. His close, though, went wildly wrong:

“The history of the American tariff is the story of a dubious economic policy turned into a great political success. … [N]early all important opposition has for the time being disappeared. A survey of the pressure politics of the [bill] shows no significant concentration of forced able to reverse the policy and bring about a return to a system of low tariffs. … The very tendencies that have made the legislation bad have made it politically invincible.”

Hoover, the last president until Mr. Trump to defend a general tariff increase in a “midterm” election, got a wipeout five months after signing this bill. His Republicans dropped 49 House seats, 5 Senate seats, and 9 governorships. The actual tariffs held on for the balance of Hoover’s term, but as Schattschneider was writing his book, the Roosevelt administration’s “Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act” was already unraveling them.

The Tariff Act of 1930 differed in a lot of technical respects from Mr. Trump’s tariff decrees (see below), but data kept by the U.S. International Trade Commission show that the two bottom-line rate increases are very close. Between 1929 and 1933, “trade-weighted average” tariffs rose by about 6.3% (from 13.5% to 19.8%). From 2024 to 2025, they rose by 5.5% (from 2.3% to 7.8%). The political denouement likewise: Mr. Trump’s 2026 Republicans lost even more Senate seats than Hoover’s 1930 group (six to eight, with two still uncalled this morning), and —while starting with 218 House seats as opposed to Hoover’s 265 — nearly as many House seats.

The parallel outcomes suggest where Schattschneider went wrong. Basically, he didn’t so much overrate the importance of inside-game lobbying as fail to see that sometimes big-picture democracy and public opinion overwhelm it. Thinking about tariffs through the lens of interest-group politics, he concluded that while tariffs are negative for the economy in general, their “benefits to an individual producer are obvious while many of the costs are obscure.” He thus found businesses, trade associations, and labor groups passionately interested in the few tariff lines that might give them visible advantages, and less engaged with the many lines that might incrementally work against them. Though the Smoot-Hawley bill was generally unpopular, most people felt it was confusing and weren’t very active about it, so public opinion didn’t much affect the outcome. Thus the conclusion that what really counts in American policymaking is not the views of the public in general, but coordinated interest-group activity.

Sometimes that’s probably right. Other times not: when the public is genuinely moved it is far more powerful than interest-group coalitions. That was the case in 1930, as public alarm over the Depression’s first year and a strong view that Hoover’s tariff increase had made it worse created the “important opposition” Schattschneider thought non-existent. He just didn’t see it, because he was looking at the wrong things. That seems to have happened in 2026 as well. Just as the 1930 public decided tariff increases were making the Depression worse, the 2026 public responded to (a) the Trump administration’s decision in early 2025 to abandon its promise to “defeat inflation and quickly bring down all prices” and instead push prices up by embarking on a Hoover-like general tariff increase, (b) justify this in inflammatory terms by arguing that “cheap goods are not part of the American dream”, “two dolls are enough” for a girl, etc., and (c) constantly claim that a tariff-driven industrial boom was either in full swing or just around the corner. Very obviously, the public concluded that the Trump decrees had broken a promise and reignited inflation, didn’t share the administration’s indifference to the prices of goods, and hasn’t seen an industrial boom. Hence the outcome.

As to the future, Roosevelt’s New Deal administration found a creative way to dismantle the Smoot-Hawley bill through international negotiations, and by 1940 tariff rates were below pre-S.-H. levels again. Undoing Mr. Trump’s tariff program is (at least in principle) much easier, since it has come in the form of a series of constantly changing decrees rather than a durable, constitutionally legitimate law. The incoming Congress can repeal them, and the next president can cancel them as easily as Mr. Trump signed them.

FURTHER READING

PPI’s four principles for response to tariffs and economic isolationism:

  • Defend the Constitution and oppose rule by decree;
  • Connect tariff policy to growth, work, prices and family budgets, and living standards;
  • Stand by America’s neighbors and allies;
  • Offer a positive alternative

Tariff decrees reprise:

Trump admin.’s April 2, 2025 “international emergency” tariff decree.

U.S. Commerce Department (August, 2025) declares that condensed milk, balance beams, mosquito repellent, & other products are “steel or aluminum derivative products.”

Supreme Court strikes down the “international emergency” decree.

U.S. Trade Representative Office replaces it with 10.0% to 12.5% tariffs on goods from the top 60 U.S. trading partners, claiming that all of them are probably buying forced-labor goods & this is imposing a burden on U.S. commerce.

PPI’s Amicus curiae brief points out that the new decree doesn’t actually show any trade in forced labor at all.

And a look back:

Pres. Hoover launches and signs the Tariff Act of 1930.

Schachtschneider’s Politics, Pressures, and the Tariff (1935), out of print but available via the Internet Archive. It can get a bit dense …

“A more just estimate of the extent of the opposition to Paragraph 5 may now be made. It is observed that, of the 1,500 items in it, the duties on precipitated bone phosphate and barium oxide alone were opposed by name, while only two domestic manufacturers of pharmaceutical supplies and one importer appeared against the paragraph generally… The cement industry declared in its brief that ‘The undersigned American manufacturers of Portland cement, representing approximately 94 independent companies with 157 active plants in 32 states, as that an adequate tariff duty be placed on Portland cement,’” etc.

Douglas Irwin’s concise modern account, Peddling Protectionism (2011), covers Hoover and Congress, international reactions, and assessments of the economic impact.

PPI’s Ed Gresser, speaking at the Cosmos Club last fall, does a compare-and-contrast of the tariff binges of 1930 and 2025. Bonus, quick snapshots of Rep.Willis Hawley, Sen. Reed Smoot, and a second-tier Tariff Act issue:

“Hawley was a stocky, burly-looking individual and something of an intellectual. He was President of Willamette College in Oregon before going to Congress, owned an original copy of Hugo Grotius’ 17th -century international law compendium, and taught political science. Smoot was more tall and thin, and based on photographs he had a kind of “gloomy undertaker” look. A journalist at the time said he “spoke with a dry holy passion for financial soundness,” and he had a strong interest in public morals. One of the secondary issues in the Senate’s 1930 tariff-bill debate was an amendment by a group of relatively ‘left’ or liberal Senators to dial back the Customs Service’s power to search incoming international mail for indecent material. Smoot was very much against that, and threatened to read passages from the D.H. Lawrence novel Lady Chatterley’s Lover on the Senate floor to demonstrate the danger Americans were facing.”

And Franklin Roosevelt (1934) winds it all down as he launches tariff-cutting negotiations via the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act.

ABOUT ED

Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.

Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.

Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.

Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.

Read the full email and sign up for the Trade Fact of the Week.

Midterm Rout Shows Trump’s Spell Is Broken

WASHINGTON (November 4, 2026) — Will Marshall, president and founder of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), released the following statement on the results of Tuesday’s midterm elections, in which Democrats won control of both the House and Senate and flipped Senate seats in Republican strongholds including Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Kansas:

“Tuesday’s Democratic rout marks a turning point. President Donald Trump isn’t going anywhere, but his spell is broken. This is an accountability moment, and it’s one he can’t gaslight his way out of.

“Midterms are a verdict on the president’s performance, and Trump created the conditions for this one himself. His tariffs and his attack on Iran pushed up living costs in the third straight national election dominated by inflation. His handpicked candidates, from Ken Paxton in Texas to Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio, set Republicans up for a fall. Even his mid-decade gerrymanders posed no barrier to the blue wave. Many of his own 2024 voters, especially Hispanic and young voters, turned against him.

“But Democrats shouldn’t mistake a thermostatic reaction against Trump for a mandate for the left. Left-wing radicalism isn’t the antidote to right-wing nationalism. A broad coalition that can win and sustain majorities is. Democrats should take their cue from the candidates who just won on the toughest terrain in American politics, and make extending these gains deep into the red zone their mission for 2028.”

Founded in 1989, PPI is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Find an expert and learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Follow us at @ppi.

###

Media Contact: Ian O’Keefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

Ainsley in The Guardian: ‘The World Is Out of Control’: How Political Strategist Claire Ainsley Is Challenging the Left to Take It Back

Do you ever feel as if life is spiralling out of control? As if the world’s problems are too big, or politicians too small, to get a grip on everything from rising prices to emergent threats such as AI?

If so, says the political strategist Claire Ainsley, you’re neither alone nor irrational. “It’s probably because you’ve got a lot to do, and the world is out of control,” she says cheerfully from her home in York, where she lives with her husband, an artist, and their two teenage children. But it is the politicians’ job to master fast-moving and complex events, she adds, and if conventional parties seem increasingly powerless to do anything about them, then populist alternatives will be only too ready with dangerously easy-sounding answers.

Her new book Control: How We Lost It and How to Take It Back argues that the centre-left can tackle that fatally undermining sense of impotence by rewiring government and putting people back in charge of their own lives. “We know the rightwing populists have an agenda that is dangerous and divisive. The question is what is being done to stop it,” says Ainsley, who served as Keir Starmer’s director of policy in opposition and is now a consultant for the Washington-based thinktank Progressive Policy Institute. “It’s that lack of leadership from centre-left politicians that people are crying out for.”

Continue reading in The Guardian.

Manno for Community College Daily: Building Trust at Close Range

Many Americans say higher education is too expensive and not worth the cost. But ask them about a nearby community college and the response often changes.

The national numbers on higher education are bleak. A recent Gallup and Lumina Foundation survey found that only 38% of adults had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in higher education. That figure was down from 57% in 2015. In a fall 2025 Pew Research Center survey, seven in 10 Americans said higher education is headed in the wrong direction, up from 56% in 2020.

But two-year community colleges are viewed differently, according to Gallup. Only 12% of adults said four-year colleges do an excellent or good job of keeping college affordable. For community colleges, that figure was 54%. Most people also gave them good marks for quality, access and workforce preparation.

Read more in Community College Today.

Brown in the Boston Globe: A Tricky Dance: Bring Down Energy Bills, but Don’t Sacrifice Long-Term Goals

[…]
Maryland is in a similar bind, straddling aggressive climate targets and rising regional electricity costs, made worse by the explosive growth of data centers in neighboring northern Virginia. A paper from the Progressive Policy Institute, a center-left think tank, argues that, due in part to rollback of federal policies that supported clean energy, the state just can’t meet its near-term climate goals without ushering in an economic catastrophe and a potential voter backlash.
The Maryland study states: “When voters don’t buy into the mandate-driven, high-cost decarbonization pathways and overreaching solutions, the political pendulum can swing so far to the right that we lose important and real policy solutions.”
In common speak: When one philosophy becomes too rigid, politicians get thrown out of power. Incremental progress is better than no progress.
The study argues that Annapolis should prioritize the most cost-effective ways to reduce carbon emissions. For example, focusing on permitting reform or covering up to 100 percent of electrification costs for for low- to moderate-income households. It suggests dropping more symbolic mandates such as banning gas stoves.
[…]

Read the full editorial in The Boston Globe.

Marshall for The Hill: Can New Leaders Stop Israel’s Slide Into Isolation?

Israeli voters thronged to the polls in record numbers this week, only to produce a frustratingly murky verdict. It may take weeks of haggling among the country’s fragmented political parties to form a new governing coalition — or to decide the country needs a new election.

Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost his parliamentary majority, the variable geometry of Israeli politics means he could retain his post, possibly in a new unity government between opposed parties.

Americans may not much care who holds power in Jerusalem, but they should. After all, it was Netanyahu who persuaded President Trump to join Israel’s war to topple Iran’s Islamist regime. The regime remains, but Americans are paying dearly for weapons, gas and diesel as the war drags on.

Keep reading in The Hill.

Cybersecurity’s “Black October”

THIS WEEK’S
TOP STORIES

Cybersecurity’s “Black October”

By Danielle Steitz

The warnings of experts alarmed by the proliferation of AI-enabled cyber threats reached a new pitch this month, already coined “Black October” by cybersecurity professionals and drawing parallels to March of 2020. The discovery of critical vulnerabilities in the programming language PHP, which underpins more than 70% of the Internet’s webpages, was the banner event that drew attention to the slew of vulnerabilities and exploits that have recently been exposed by AI tools. Earlier in the month, the Japanese government declared a “state of emergency in cyberspace” after a surge of cyberattacks targeted government websites, banks, and transit organizations, while South Korea experienced a series of cyberattacks against financial institutions that CrowdStrike assessed were launched by a single individual utilizing agentic AI tools. As 404Media’s Jason Koebler puts it, “AI is proving something that we have always known: much of the software that runs the internet, our devices, our accounts, and our lives is vulnerable,” and the availability of AI models has “made it extremely easy to essentially brute force the internet.”

PPI Expert Analysis:

Danielle Steitz, Director of National Security Policy: In the past, the biggest barriers to a “brute force” or “try every doorknob” approach to hacking have been technical prowess (knowing enough to understand what you’re looking at and where the doorknob even is) and time (you can only try one or a few doorknobs at a time). AI models — both top-of-the-line frontier models as well as open-source models available online — have drastically reduced the technical know-how needed to find exploits and hack systems, while also eliminating time-based limits by operating 24/7 without needing to pause for sleep or other tasks. This means that some targets that might have been previously passed over by hackers — small hospitals, local electric utilities, and other key service providers who might have once been judged to not be worth the time and effort to hack – must now accept that there is no hiding, and invest and prepare accordingly. While nobody knows the full extent to which AI might reshape cybersecurity — some experts still remain hopeful that AI’s utility in patching vulnerabilities will ultimately result in a more secure cyber architecture — one thing appears clear: building resilient systems is paramount. Individuals and organizations should assume it’s a matter of when, not if, they will be hacked, and invest in developing their ability to identify intrusions, repel the attack, mitigate damage, and resume normal operations.

Bolsonaro’s Election Denial

By Danielle Steitz

A hotly contested election this week in Brazil has been marred by accusations of fraud and illegitimacy. Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing opponent to incumbent Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has fled to Florida after the Brazilian public voted to reelect Lula by a margin of roughly 5 million votes. Flávio appears to be following in the footsteps of his father, disgraced former president Jair Bolsonaro, who fled to Florida after losing to and attempting a coup against Lula in 2022,  and who is currently serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest in Brazil for his crimes. Flávio and his family arrived in Miami on Wednesday despite Flávio’s passport having been confiscated by Brazilian authorities as part of a Supreme Court investigation into charges of corruption, tax evasion and money laundering. Despite this cloud of suspicion, Bolsonaro apparently entered the U.S. with President Trump’s approval, as the American president has publicly called the election “really strange” and “rigged.” Trump declined, however, to comment on Flávio’s statement, in which he declared himself the rightful leader of Brazil and called for the election results to be annulled.

PPI Expert Analysis:

Danielle Steitz, Director of National Security Policy: Trump’s domestic election denialism and degradation of faith in electoral results have gone global, with Bolsonaro as his latest right-wing ally to copy his playbook. Bolsonaro’s insistence that he is the true winner of the election flies in the face of his own party’s acceptance of the results as well as the recognition by international governments of Lula’s victory, but looks very similar to Trump’s 2020 election denials. Trump’s decision to offer refuge to a man fleeing investigation in his own country after his focus on deporting “criminal immigrants” comes across as hypocritical, but it’s not surprising in light of his administration’s reported support for the Bolsonaro family. As my colleague Ed Gresser noted this week, all of this takes place against the backdrop of a pessimistic global environment for electoral democracies.

Hegseth’s Latest Fired General

By Danielle Steitz

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has relieved yet another distinguished general officer from a leadership post, this time removing LTG Brett Sylvia, a 32-year Army veteran, from his position as director of the Joint Staff’s Directorate for Strategy, Plans, and Policy (J5). An unnamed senior Pentagon official provided a statement to a select group of news outlets alleging that LTG Sylvia had been fired for leaking classified information to reporters concerning the war with Iran, Ukraine, and other matters, and that an investigation had been referred to the Justice Department. The Joint Staff initially put out a statement wishing LTG Sylvia and his family well as they transitioned into their next chapter, only to later retract it, claiming that “the statement did not appropriately reflect the full circumstances” and declining to comment further “out of respect for the servicemember and the ongoing personnel process.”

PPI Expert Analysis:

Danielle Steitz, Director of National Security Policy: First and foremost, leaking classified information is a criminal activity, and as a former Joint Staff officer, I do not take the obligation to safeguard classified information lightly in the slightest. With that said, it is impossible to assess this latest firing without acknowledging a clear pattern of behavior from Pete Hegseth whereby allegations of leaking have been made against multiple officials with no substantiating evidence ever presented. In fact, Hegseth’s former special advisor Dan Caldwell, who was fired last year for allegedly leaking information, has since been rehired into the administration as a senior advisor to the Director of National Intelligence — certainly not a position given to an adjudicated leaker. It is also critical to note that, given LTG JP McGee’s accelerated retirement last fall, this is the second J5 that has been pushed out in the past year. Given that the position of the J5 is essentially the Joint Staff counterpart to Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, as well as Hegseth’s clear preference for surrounding himself with “yes men”, it seems possible that personality clashes or diverging perspectives between Sylvia and Hegseth or Colby are now being twisted into more severe allegations to justify Sylvia’s removal. I anticipate the congressional oversight committees’ continued focus on the personnel moves and rationales offered by the Hegseth Pentagon, with particular scrutiny on what evidence substantiates these allegations of criminal behavior by a decorated senior officer.

What We’re Reading

“Zelensky Stood Up to Trump and Came Out Ahead—For Now” by Tamar Jacoby in Washington Monthly

Tamar Jacoby, director of PPI’s New Ukraine project, has just published her analysis on who won the latest round of escalating tensions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Donald Trump-led United States. Her verdict? Zelensky has more shrewdly judged both the political moment and weathered drastic U.S. restrictions on Starshield, U.S. intelligence sharing, and Patriot interceptors to emerge with world opinion firmly on his side.

Kahlenberg in The New York Times: Elite Colleges Enroll Fewer Black Freshmen and More Asian Americans

Richard D. Kahlenberg, who had testified as an expert for plaintiffs in the case and favors efforts to increase socioeconomic diversity, said the large drop in Black students was avoidable.

“Harvard’s old model was to give large racial preference to upper middle class Black and Hispanic students,” Mr. Kahlenberg, who heads a program at the Progressive Policy Institute, said in an email. He said the university should do more to open its doors to highly qualified working class students.

Read more in The New York Times.

Freedom House — Count of ‘Electoral Democracies’ — Down From 125 in 2016 to 106

Freedom House — count of ‘electoral democracies’ — down from 125 in 2016 to 106.

THE NUMBERS: U.S. rating for “freedom”* –

2025

81/100

2024

84/100

2014

93/100

* Freedom House’s “Freedom in the World” reports for 2026, 2025, and 2015. 2015 is the first year they used the 100-point scoring system. These rank countries as ‘free’, ‘partly free’, or ‘not free’, on a 0-to-100 spectrum based on evaluations of electoral democracy, civil liberties, and personal freedoms.

WHAT THEY MEAN:

As the Trump administration asks the public to “give us another chance” next week, NGO Freedom House’s “Freedom in the World 2026” report has a gloomy assessment of American rights and liberties:

“Among countries rated ‘Free,’ the United States, Bulgaria, and Italy have experienced the year’s largest declines. In the United States, an escalation both in legislative dysfunction and executive dominance, growing pressure on people’s ability to engage in free expression, and the new administration’s moves to undermine anticorruption safeguards all contributed to the negative score change. The United States’ net decline since 2005 [based on a rights-and-liberties score of 100] is more than any other country rated ‘Free’ during the same period except for Nauru and Bulgaria.”

Background: Freedom House originated as an internationalist human rights advocacy group and antagonist of “America First Committee” isolationism in 1941, and began evaluating countries on democracy and civil liberties in 1973. Since 2014, its “Freedom in the World” report has rated countries on a 0-to-100 scale, based on a composite of (a) political rights including electoral democracy, political pluralism, and (b) civil liberties including freedom of expression, belief, and association, rule of law, and individual autonomy and choice in personal life. The 2026 edition covers 208 countries and territories, and finds 89 of them “free,” 52 “partly free,” and 67 “not free.” It ranks Finland “freest” in the world, with 100 of the 100 possible points. New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden are next at 99. Ukraine’s Russian-occupied territories are the least free, rated an extraordinary “-1” for combining lack of any political or civil rights (apart from a single point for freedom to marry) with attempts at “deliberately changing the ethnic composition of a group or territory.”

America’s election next Tuesday takes place, according at least to Freedom House, in an environment of eroding democracy and liberty. The U.S. places 66th out of 2018 with a score of 81, tied with Jamaica, the Seychelles, South Africa, and Suriname. This is the U.S.’s worst score ever (including when the pre-2014 rankings are converted to the report’s current 100-point scale), down from 84 in 2024 and well below the peaks of 93 and 94 in the mid-2010s.

America’s diminished reputation in this year’s report reflects Freedom House’s alarm over weakening anti-corruption policies, presidential attempts to bypass Congress and rule by decree, and more frequent legal “threats and reprisals” for political speech. In world context, though, the U.S.’s drop may be especially steep but looks more like an example of a larger trend than an “American exceptionalism” anomaly. Averaged across countries, Freedom House’s overall ratings peaked in 2005 and have drifted downward every year since, and their count of “electoral democracies” has dropped by about 20.

Research over the past two years by PPI’s Project on Center-Left Renewal helps to explain, suggesting that the downward trend isn’t just idiosyncratic pessimism on the part of Freedom House. Rather, it looks like a political-world reflection of public opinion in many democracies, especially among working-class voters. A sample from Project Director Claire Ainsley, Deborah Mattison and Tom Brookes, reporting on working-class and “swing voter” opinion in the U.S., UK, Australia, and Germany last year in their report Build Back Belief:

“A powerful sense of injustice fueled by the belief that government is no longer on the side of the people it has been elected to serve. Dismay that working people like them must work harder and harder just to get by, drained of hope and aspiration. Fearful for their children and grandchildren in an increasingly insecure world. … These voters perceive a mismatch between modern life, which feels increasingly fast-paced, and sclerotic, unresponsive governments – overly reactive, too slow, incapable of making big changes. Many see politicians as, at best, weak and incompetent, trapped in failing systems, at worst, willfully propping up the status quo.”

But: Set against this feeling of disillusion and fading faith that political democracies are delivering, the voters in the Ainsley/Mattison/Bruce study appear pragmatic. Rather than grandiose visions or wreck-the-system ideologies, they hope governments can deliver living-room-level plans to reduce costs —homes, basic consumer goods, health, energy — and remove legal and social obstacles to career mobility for non-college families:

“Voters describe the change they are looking for in pretty simple terms, even if delivering it in practice is harder. They want help with living costs to make life more affordable, particularly energy and housing. They want help to get on, and favour policies who open up economic opportunity for them and their kids – like better alternatives to college for gaining career skills – over higher tax and spend.”

These voters panned the Biden administration’s “postneoliberalism” two years ago. They will render judgment Tuesday on the “national conservatism,” tariffs, etc. of the Trump administration. And perhaps they will ask a fresh Congress, with different leadership, for something new.

Further Reading

PPI’s four principles for response to tariffs and economic isolationism:

  • Defend the Constitution and oppose rule by decree;
  • Connect tariff policy to growth, work, prices and family budgets, and living standards;
  • Stand by America’s neighbors and allies;
  • Offer a positive alternative

Freedom House assesses the state of liberty and democracy worldwide.

… ranks 189 countries and territories, from Finland’s perfect 100 to the -1 of Russian-occupied Crimea, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.

… reviews the United States in 2025.

… and explains the “origin story” of Roosevelt, Willkie, liberal internationalism and their isolationist “American First Committee” antagonists in 1940.

PPI on politics and democracy:

PPI’s Project on Center-Left Renewal, led by Claire Ainsley.

In Build Back Belief: Why Voters Around the World Lost Faith in Government and How to Win It Back, Ainsley, Mattison, and Brookes survey “swing voters” in the U.S., U.K., Australia, and Germany.

PPI President Will Marshall on the initial political success and subsequent decline of Trumpism.

VP/Public Affairs Stu Malec and Political Director Jolie Libert join political analyst Robin Johnson in profiling 17 Democratic state legislators succeeding in working-class/rural districts.

ABOUT ED

Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.

Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.

Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.

Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.

Read the full email and sign up for the Trade Fact of the Week.

Manno for Real Clear Education: AI Cuts What First Jobs Teach. Schools and Colleges Can Help Fill the Gap.

Artificial intelligence now does more of the grunt work that traditionally helped new high school and college graduates develop expertise as they enter the workforce.

The first-draft memo, the not-well-developed recommendation, and the research summary no one expected to be perfect were never only about the product. These entry-level work experiences were part of an informal apprenticeship system in which new workers learned judgment and practical know-how by doing imperfect work, having it corrected, and doing it better the next time.

The decline of these early learning opportunities creates what Deloitte, the professional services network, calls an experience gap for young people. A Harvard Business Review article by Matt Sigelman, Joseph Fuller, and Michael Fenlon makes a related point by arguing that traditional job learning curves are being redrawn. The open question is who fills the experience gap when software handles tasks that used to build expertise, especially how schools and colleges should respond.

Read more in Real Clear Education.

Moss for ProMarket: The Affordability Crisis, Antitrust, and Consumer Anxiety

Consumer anxiety in the United States is at its peak. High inflation due to high prices for food, healthcare, housing and energy; high labor and input costs; and high interest rates are a drumbeat in the daily lives of U.S. consumers. With a hyper-focus on economic investment and the business cycle, the role of consumer spending in supporting the economy often takes a back seat. Hobbling consumers with higher prices and less choice—and their effect on lowering spending power—threatens this vital role.

For example, consumer spending in 2026 accounted for a whopping 68% of U.S. GDP. “Consumers” aren’t just you and me. They are businesses too—often smaller ones—that buy labor, materials, and access to distribution to reach customers. Small business activity in the U.S. in 2026 accounts for 43% of GDP.

Yet there is no relief in sight. President Donald Trump’s hollow promises to address “affordability” in the run-up to the 2024 election have morphed into denials that there is a cost of living crisis at all. Moreover, instead of strong antitrust enforcement, the Trump administration has weaponized the laws by interfering in antitrust investigations to advance a political agenda, reward allies, and punish enemies. Consumer anxiety has only increased since 2024. As of June 2026, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index was “very pessimistic”—the lowest level in more than 50 years.

We are awash in proposals to combat the affordability crisis in the U.S. But most fall short. For example, they don’t acknowledge that market power has eroded consumers’ bargaining power and that antitrust enforcement is the major tool for restoring balance. There is also an exclusive focus on bringing down high prices when market power also erodes quality and variety for products and services—henceforth referred to as “choice.” Choice is a major driver of consumer anxiety. This article explains why policies should directly address all of these problems, not an amorphous concept of affordability.

Keep reading in ProMarket. 

Jacoby for Washington Monthly: Zelensky Stood Up to Trump and Came Out Ahead—For Now

It looked like a terrible mistake—impulsive, emotional, self-indulgent, and all but sure to be disastrous for his country. Learning of Donald Trump’s early October decision to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports and buy more than 2 million barrels of fuel from Moscow, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky lashed out, calling it a “weak decision” and a “happy birthday present for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.”

Nearly two years into Trump’s second, unfettered presidency, few foreign leaders have dared to push back so firmly against his bullying. Certainly, no one had called him “weak”—the ultimate insult for a would-be alpha male like Trump—and only Chinese President Xi Jinping had successfully defied him, meeting American tariffs with Chinese tariffs and forcing the U.S. leader to back down.

How could wartime Ukraine, already fighting for its life and deeply dependent on U.S. weapons and intelligence, pull off such defiance? Surely, Trump would crush Zelensky, as he has crushed so many smaller opponents, foreign and domestic.

Read more in the Washington Monthly.