Rotherham for US News, “A Tale of Two Zinkes”

Interior, it landed pretty well. Zinke was a well-regarded former Navy SEAL and congressman known as a champion of protecting public lands and for being attentive to native issues. As opposed to some Trump nominees where defections of Republicans complicated the Senate math, Zinke was confirmed with a bipartisan 67 Senate votes – a landslide in the Trump-era.

During his Senate confirmation, Backcountry Hunters & Anglers, a pro-public lands conservation group, said, “Both Zinke and President-elect Trump have identified themselves as conservationists in the model of Theodore Roosevelt, a Republican who helped create America’s priceless public land heritage.”

That was then.

Now, Zinke finds himself in political trouble that ranges from just plain odd to possibly illegal. And, in the crucible, he hasn’t turned out to be the defender of public lands many hoped for.

 Continue reading at U.S. News & World Report. 

Bledsoe for The Hill, “Trump is isolated on climate. Ignore him at negotiations.”

As ministers from 195 countries travel to Bonn, Germany for annual climate negotiations to begin Nov. 6, momentous decisions await.

Convincing major-emitting nations to increase the pace of emissions reductions, gaining hundreds of billions in new private and public investment in clean energy, protecting vulnerable populations and finalizing key rules of the Paris Agreement will all be debated.

The backdrop? Increasingly deadly, hugely expensive climate change impacts now manifest in the U.S. and around the world and what scientists believe is a rapidly shrinking window of time to prevent far worse.

Within this urgent context, little effort should be spent worrying about or currying favor with Donald Trump or his appointees. Everything we’ve learned about Trump since he took office suggests it’s a fool’s errand to attempt to convince him to take more responsible action regarding climate change.

Continue reading at The Hill.

Bledsoe for The Hill, “Harvey, Irma show the skyrocketing costs of climate change”

Even as Congress passed $15 billion in initial funding for Hurricane Harvey relief, Americans were glued to their TVs watching Hurricane Irma, the strongest-ever Atlantic storm, bear down on Florida, where millions are still without power and other services.

Sadly, Congress, and the rest of us, had better get used to it. Harvey and Irma are just glimpses of the massive extra costs climate change is already extracting from U.S. taxpayers, a price tag that will only grow exponentially in coming years.

Continue reading at The Hill. 

Bledsoe for The Hill, “High-paying energy jobs are key for Democrats in 2018”

Clean-energy policies championed by Democrats over the last decade have helped create millions of high-paying energy jobs for American workers. And innovative Democratic policies going forward can help spur millions more good jobs — in energy efficiency, natural gas, nuclear energy, carbon capture, wind, solar, electric vehicles and infrastructure — in coming years.

This record of high-wage job creation stands in stark contrast to Donald Trump’s false coal-dust promises to somehow bring back jobs using 19th century energy strategies.

But, as Democrats look toward the mid-term elections, their candidates must talk about energy in the right way. They must put high-wage energy jobs first, national security gains second and environmental benefits third, to tap into voters’ concerns to garner the electoral benefits their policies deserve.

Continue reading at The Hill.

Bledsoe for The Hill, “US can boost gas exports, cut global emissions in one fell swoop”

Infamously, Donald Trump has called climate change a hoax, but the rest of the world knows better. In fact, the main reason European and Asian nations are interested in importing U.S. natural gas is to displace coal and cut greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change.

If the Trump administration truly cares about expanding U.S. gas exports, as they claim, they should maximize the competitive advantage that lower-emitting U.S. natural gas has over not only coal, but also over higher-emitting Russian gas.

This means the administration should stop the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) attempt to rollback domestic regulations of methane emissions from gas development, and perhaps use the threat of sanctions against Russian gas pipelines (as allowed under the new Russia sanctions law) to expand U.S. markets.

Continue reading at The Hill.

Marshall & Bledsoe for Real Clear Energy, “Colorado Blazes Low-Emissions, High-Employment Energy Pathway”

Donald Trump made political hay in Appalachian and industrial states by running as an ardent booster of coal. Yet what’s really powered America’s remarkable energy boom over the last decade is shale oil and natural gas, renewable solar and wind, clean-tech and energy efficiency.

Energy innovation, in short, is the key to creating more good jobs and lowering U.S. carbon emissions. But given the Trump administration’s animus toward energy technology funding and low-carbon approaches generally, much of the political leadership for America’s next energy revolution will have to come from states where Democrats are in charge.

Take Colorado, which is aggressively pursuing energy innovation across the full spectrum of fuels and technologies. Governor John Hickenlooper has crafted a pro-growth, low-emissions agenda that should be a model to other states and to national policymakers. It emphasizes shale gas, wind, solar, hydropower, efficiency and advanced technology in everything from zero emissions electric cars to home net electricity metering.

Continue read at Real Clear Energy. 

Bledsoe for the Economist, “Whither the world after America’s retreat?”

…The risks posed by a changing climate require action. Last year was the hottest since records began, and 16 of the 17 warmest years have occurred since 2001. Sea level is rising and the polar regions are melting. Extreme storms, droughts and winds already threaten the safety and livelihood of millions. Despite all this, America is now attempting to leave. It will be a complex process that could take years. Renegotiating the Paris accord, or replacing it, could be even harder. Reaching the deal took decades in the first place. Countries which “bent over backwards” to please America—by ensuring the deal was not legally binding among other measures—are hardly likely to start again from scratch points out Paul Bledsoe, a climate policy expert from American University in Washington, DC.

Continue reading at The Economist.

 

Bledsoe for Politico: How Trump can help save coal-with China’s help

Last week, President Donald Trump declared that he would bring back coal jobs, directing the EPA to roll back the Clean Power Plan and other regulations on coal producers. It’s an audacious promise given the recent trajectory of the industry, and most energy experts dismissed it as impossible.

But there is one way for Trump to slow the loss of coal-related jobs and it has nothing to do with undermining climate regulations: Rather, it runs through China.

As Trump meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping today, he has a rare chance to build relations with a global rival and help keep one of his domestic promises. The reason is clean coal technology.

Read more at Politico. 

Gifford for The Hill: Why Trump’s Climate Order Might Backfire

Here’s some friendly advice to U.S. business leaders who may be quietly cheering plans by President Trump and his new administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Scott Pruitt, to “drain the swamp” by gutting environmental regulations: Be careful what you wish for.

Not only will many Americans view such a rollback as radical, but it’s also likely to provoke a torrent of lawsuits, tempting federal and state courts to step into the policy vacuum created by a weakened regulatory regime.

Martha Coakley, the former Democratic attorney general of Massachusetts, predicts that even Republican state attorneys general will consider pairing with private plaintiffs’ attorneys to file tort actions to protect the environment in the absence of viable federal regulation. A new spate of public nuisance litigation — the tort du jour for environmental activists seeking “regulation through litigation” -— would likely result in a far more draconian and unstable set of environmental rules that what’s currently on the books.

Continue reading at The Hill. 

Flashback Friday: PPI in Hindsight

Just over a year ago, PPI unveiled a big ideas blueprint with a prescient subtitle: Unleashing Innovation and Growth: A Progressive Alternative to Populism. We knew that progressives in the United States and Europe needed better answers to the economic and cultural grievances that have fueled the rise of a retrograde populism and nationalism around the world. We did not foresee that Democrats would fail to offer a forward-looking plan for jobs and shared growth, opening the door to Donald Trump’s improbable victory.

Which makes the themes and ideas in PPI’s sweeping policy blueprint more important than ever. Populism today thrives in the political vacuum left by center-left parties that offer no clear vision for reviving economic dynamism and hope. “Winning the economic argument will be essential to victory in the 2016 elections and it starts by getting the diagnosis right,” the blueprint noted. Instead, Democrats ran a campaign that leaned heavily on identity politics, wealth redistribution and centralized, small-bore solutions.

Unleashing argued that America (and Europe) are stuck in a slow-growth trap that holds down wages and living standards. And it offered bold prescriptions for building on America’s competitive advantage in technology and entrepreneurship to spread innovation – now concentrated in a vibrant digital sector — to the nation’s physical economy, which continues to suffer from low productivity. In addition, the document proposed creative ways to modernize the nation’s economic infrastructure, improve the regulatory environment for innovation, build middle class wealth and empower poor Americans to work, save and chart their own course to social mobility and inclusion.

Crucially, the blueprint also urged progressives to reject anger and victimhood and offer voters a confident account for how America can build a new, inclusive prosperity:

What America needs is a forward-looking plan to unleash innovation, stimulate productive investment, groom the world’s most talented workers, and put our economy back on a high-growth path, It’s time to banish fear and pessimism and trust instead in the liberal and individualist values and enterprising culture that have always made America great.

That was the road not taken in 2016. Now it’s the road to political relevance and success for progressives here and elsewhere.

 

Aldy Testimony for the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce

Statement of Joseph E. Aldy
Associate Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School
Visiting Fellow, Resources for the Future
Faculty Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research
Senior Adviser, Center for Strategic and International Studies

United States House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Energy, hearing on “Federal Energy Related Tax Policy and Its Effects on Markets, Prices, and Consumers”

[gview file="https://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/HHRG-115-IF03-Wstate-AldyJ-20170329.pdf" title="the-great-swap"]

Trump’s climate rollback could undermine our promises to the rest of the world

Trump’s executive order eviscerating Obama’s climate plan could leave the U.S. isolated as other countries push forward to curb emissions, observers of international climate negotiations said.

Major climate allies are increasingly concerned that Trump’s efforts to overturn the [Clean Power Plan] and other climate rollbacks will blow a huge hole in the U.S. ability to meet its 2025 climate commitment, let alone reach much deeper emissions cuts needed to stabilize the climate long-term,” said Paul Bledsoe, a senior fellow on energy at the Progressive Policy Institute.

Those concerns about U.S. climate commitments under a Trump presidency could come up in May when diplomats gather for a working group meeting on the Paris climate agreement.

Read more at The Washington Post. 

As carbon emissions rise, so will the “social costs of carbon”

President Trump’s “open mind” on climate change seems to be closing. He’s preparing an executive order to kill Obama administration rules aimed at curbing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. It is almost as though Trump is determined to increase the amount of carbon and other greenhouse gases America pumps into the atmosphere.
 
As carbon emissions rise, so will the “social costs of carbon.” That’s a fairly new metric energy economists have developed to account for the many ways climate change can harm our economy as well as public health and safety. Harvard’s Joe Aldy, a PPI contributor, helped to develop the measure while serving in the Obama White House. In this piece on The Conversation, he explains how the social cost of carbon came to be and how it’s been used to keep the costs and benefits of regulation in balance.
 
 

Marshall & Aldy for Democracy Journal, “The Great Swap”

Does a deal now gaining momentum across the aisle actually have the potential to break the stalemate on climate change?

Is Donald Trump serious about keeping an “open mind” on climate change? Considering the “drill, baby, drill” cheerleaders he’s put in key Cabinet posts, it’s easy to fear the worst. They appear more than eager to roll back the Obama Administration’s energy and climate policies as soon as possible.

So the safest bet is probably to buckle up for four more years of intractable partisan warfare in Washington over dueling fuels and “alternative” climate science. And yet, there is rising interest, on both sides of the political spectrum, for an idea that has the potential to break this impasse in energy and environmental policy: swapping a carbon tax for many existing environmental regulations and using the revenues to support broader tax reform.

Last week, a group of Republican graybeards led by former secretaries of state James Baker and George Schultz called for a $40 per ton carbon tax, with the proceeds being turned into rebates in the form of dividends to all Americans. Senator Bernie Sanders endorsed a carbon tax during his campaign, and Trump and his daughter Ivanka discussed it with climate change crusader Al Gore after the election.

The Baker-Schultz plan also envisions swapping the carbon tax for an array of less comprehensive regulations—including the proposed Clean Power Plan—that most economists believe are less efficient than an economy-wide carbon tax. All this points to an opportunity for a President who calls himself a world-class dealmaker to craft a grand bargain that gets U.S. energy and climate policy unstuck. It’s a long shot, but the alternative is an endless game of political ping pong in which Republicans ram their energy preferences through Congress unilaterally, only to be reversed when Democrats return to power.

Continue Reading at Democracy Journal.

Bledsoe for LA Times: As Trump ignores record temperatures, taxpayers are footing the (huge) bill for climate change

Global temperatures were the highest on record in 2016 for the third straight year, scientists at NASA and elsewhere reported last week. This is just the latest proof of rapid climate change that has experts and governments around the world deeply alarmed. And yet President Trump and many other Republicans have so far paid no political price for questioning or downplaying the scientific evidence on climate change and undermining environmental policies that reduce risk.

One reason for their apparent immunity is that climate denialists exaggerate the economic costs of laws that aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, advocates of effective climate policies have lacked hard numbers on the current and future economic toll of global warming.

But this is starting to change. Over the past several years, a number of peer-reviewed studies have established that climate change is already costing American taxpayers and consumers tens of billions of dollars. As these costs to businesses, states and the federal budget mount, Trump and Congress may finally face pressure to act.

Continue reading at Los Angeles Times.

Press Release: New PPI Report Proposes Grand Political Bargain on Climate & Energy

WASHINGTON—The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) today released a new policy report, “Long-Term Carbon Pricing: The Great Swap,” at a packed public forum featuring a cross-partisan roundtable discussion with moderator Hannah Hess of E&E News and panelists John Larsen, Director of the Rhodium Group, Jerry Taylor, President of the Niskanen Center, Catrina Rorke, Director of energy policy at R Street and Todd Wooten, Senior Counsel on the U.S. Senate Finance Committee.

The report proposes an economy-wide carbon tax as the most effective and efficient way to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, while also encouraging investment in clean fuels and technologies. The report also explores the intriguing possibility of a “great swap”—a carbon tax and regulatory streamlining as a part of tax reform—that could create the basis for bipartisan negotiating and compromise to break the current impasse in climate and energy policy.

“The rationale for coupling a carbon tax and tax reform are twofold,” writes Joe Aldy, author of the report and Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School. “First, the climate policy and tax reform benefit from each other in terms of economics. Tax reform lowers the costs to the economy—and potentially eliminates the net costs of a carbon tax—while the carbon tax provides the revenues to finance the tax reform.

“Second, such an approach can neutralize the difficult politics that characterize each issue by broadening the political coalition that would derive a ‘win’ from at least some element of the policy package. Such a broad coalition would ensure the durability of the carbon tax and tax reform, and is consistent with major policy efforts in the past that have coupled policy initiatives to draw broader support, such as under the regular farm bill and transportation bill processes.”

America urgently needs a balanced energy policy that supports both strong economic growth and a healthy climate. Yet many observers fear that with Republicans in charge of both the White House and Congress, our country’s transition toward a low-carbon economy will stall.

Nonetheless, there is bipartisan interest in linking an economy-wide carbon tax to other goals Republicans strongly favor, namely tax and regulatory reform. This could create unexpected opportunities for bargaining and compromise should “normal” politics break out in 2017.

The report comprehensively outlines the political challenge of climate policy, the political support for the great swap (including what both Republicans and progressives would gain, and why both business and labor would support it), the case for an economy-wide carbon tax, carbon price certainty, how to design a carbon tax, and how to use the carbon tax revenues.

Download, “Long-Term Carbon Pricing: The Great Swap“.
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