Home Economics: Job Picture May Be Improving, But Not Housing Markets

Why not?

PPI’s Battleground Home Values Index for January 2012 shows home values staying essentially flat in 15 of 16 president battleground states. The one exception was Iowa, where a decline in values was severe enough to drag down the entire index by two points—the lowest level this year. According to our index, the weighted average of median home values in these states is now down a total of 18% since October 2008.

In the Hawkeye state—the one state where prices took a more serious downward turn—median values have fallen sharply from October 2011 ($124,400) to January’s low ($108,500).

While most pundits seem focused on rising gas prices as the reason for the recent drop in the president’s approval ratings, the continuing slump in home prices might offer another explanation. People still don’t quite feel they’ve regained the wealth they’ve lost in the recession.

Continue reading “Home Economics: Job Picture May Be Improving, But Not Housing Markets”

Home Economics: Middle Class Homeowners shouldn’t be a Congressional ATM

ATMIn a classic example of a “slippery slope,” Congress once again is looking for easy pickings by increasing guarantee fees (g-fees) that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac charge lenders to guarantee their mortgage lending. Last December, Congress raised the GSE’s g-fee by 10 basis points for 10 years. The goal was to raise almost $36 billion to pay for the extension of the payroll tax cut. Although this was supposed to be a one-time revenue plug, some lawmakers called for extending the new fees (at a slightly decreased rate) for an eleventh year to pay for restoration and clean up of the Gulf coast.

We understand it’s difficult for Congress to find “pay fors” for important initiatives at a time when Republicans have dug in their heels against tax increases for any purpose, even debt reduction. But treating g-fees as a piggy bank is ill-advised. Here’s why: Raising g-fees will compound the weakness of an already anemic lending environment, discourage home refinancing and lower housing demand.

Continue reading “Home Economics: Middle Class Homeowners shouldn’t be a Congressional ATM”

Home Economics: Housing Values Down, Obama Administration Steps Up, and Bank of America Calls it Quits

Home SalesThis week in housing was an especially busy one; PPI looks at just a few highlights with Case-Shiller numbers, a new government pilot program on housing and a huge announcement from Bank of America. Let’s get to it.

1. S&P Case-Shiller, the leading Index of national housing values, came out on Monday. The December data continued to highlight what is clearly the biggest drag on a recovery that is trying to find its footing, declining home values.  Case Shiller’s latest numbers showed the composite of the three indices (national, 10 cities, and 20 cities) was down 3.8 percent for the fourth quarter of 2011 and were the lowest numbers for the popular Index since the crisis began in 2006.

In related “Index” news, PPI released the first edition of the “PPI Battleground Home Values Index” last week. The Index looks at home values since the 2008 election in 16 battleground states.

Continue reading “Home Economics: Housing Values Down, Obama Administration Steps Up, and Bank of America Calls it Quits”

PPI Battleground Home Values Index

In these 16 states, home prices are down an average of 16 percent since October 2008—from a median of $160,596 to a median of $131,191 in December 2011.

The states included in the PPI analysis are among those hardest-hit by the housing crisis: Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, Indiana, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

PPI’s analysis is based on data derived from Zillow and the U.S. Census Bureau. The overall median home value for the battleground states is a weighted average based on the proportion of housing units in that state.

For more information, see Gold and Kim’s policy report, “Underwater: Home Values in 2012 Battleground States.”

New PPI Battleground Home Values Index: Home Prices in 16 Swing States Down an Average of 16% Since 2008

NEWS RELEASE 
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

CONTACT:
Steven Chlapecka – schlapecka@ppionline.org, T: 202.525.3931

WASHINGTON—The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) today unveiled a new “Battleground Home Values Index” showing how home prices in 16 potentially key states have failed to recover since the last presidential election in 2008.

In these 16 states, home prices are down an average of 16 percent since October 2008—from a median of $160,596 to a median of $131,191 in December 2011.

“This most important thing to stop the fall in home prices and that seems to have happened,” said PPI Senior Fellow Jason Gold, who co-authored the index with colleague Anne Kim, PPI’s managing director for policy and strategy.  According to Gold, battleground home values have stayed flat for the last three months, in contrast to a steady decline since 2008.

“Housing will be a pivotal election year issue,” said Kim. “If home values are rising, people feel wealthier and more confident in the direction of the economy.  Home values are as important to voters as the jobless rate.

The states included in the PPI analysis are among those hardest-hit by the housing crisis: Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, Indiana, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

PPI’s analysis is based on data derived from Zillow and the U.S. Census Bureau. The overall median home value for the battleground states is a weighted average based on the proportion of housing units in that state.

For more information, see Gold and Kim’s policy report, “Underwater: Home Values in 2012 Battleground States.”

 

5 Ideas for the State of the Union and Beyond

IDEA #1: Scraping regulatory barnacles off the economy—A Regulatory Improvement Commission

In our policy brief, Reviving Jobs and Innovation: A Progressive approach to Improving Regulation,” we describe how such a Commission could work. Neither Congress nor the executive branch currently has an efficient, streamlined process for eliminating outdated regulations that stifle innovation and growth. The Regulatory Improvement Commission could fill that void.

IDEA #2: Starting up start-ups–Improving access to credit and access to capital for smaller businesses

 

Our policy memos, “The Credit Gap: Easing the Squeeze on the Smallest Businesses” and “501 Shareholders: Redefining ‘Public’ Companies to Help Emerging Firms” explain how these changes can promote innovation where it first begins–with start-ups and small businesses.

IDEA #3: Rescue underwater homeowners; restore homeownership wealth

In “Underwater: Home Values in 2012 Battleground States,” we looked at home values in 16 potential battleground states from 2008 to 2011. We find both an enormous loss of middle-class wealth and a potentially potent political issue. We also offer up some practical first steps toward restoring home values.

IDEA #4: An Off-Year Fundraising Time-Out

In our memo, “It’s About (the) Time: Ending the Nonstop Campaign,” we propose changing congressional ethics rules to ban members from directly accepting campaign contributions except during election years. This proposal would free up members to spend more time making policy instead of raising money.

IDEA #5: A Post-Cold War Benchmark for Defense Spending

In our memo “Defense and Deficits: How to Trim the Pentagon’s Budget–Carefully,” we propose a floor of 3 percent of GDP beneath which defense spending should not be allowed to fall. Such a level would ensure that investments in R&D and procurement are sufficiently robust to maintain America’s superior industrial base and high-tech weaponry.

Underwater: Home Values in 2012 Battleground States

As the 2012 election approaches, the nation’s unemployment rate will continue to drive the political debate and, in turn, the fortunes of President Obama and his GOP rivals.

Despite the central focus on unemployment, however, another number deserves equal attention as a barometer of the nation’s overall economic health: housing values.

As catastrophic as it is to lose a job, the percentage of Americans who are unemployed is actually exceeded by the percentage of Americans who have either lost significant wealth from their homes or are currently “underwater”—owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Since 2006, Americans have lost a total of $7 trillion in housing wealth—a figure that, according to the Federal Reserve, is more than half of the nation’s aggregate home equity.

In recent days, the Obama Administration has telegraphed its intention to devote more energy to housing—and with a focus on foreclosures and defaults. While this is laudable, the Administration should not neglect a second front: the tremendous loss of housing wealth.

In this report, we make our case by analyzing home values in the 16 battleground states that will serve as the proving ground for 2012. In 15 of these states, home values have fallen by an average of 16% since October 2008. We also offer up suggestions for tackling this issue.

No doubt, every contender for the White House will have a jobs plan. But no economic plan can be complete without an equally robust plan to rebuild housing—and in particular, to rebuild housing wealth. Policies that address this loss of wealth, even for those not at immediate risk of losing their homes, makes sense both politically and economically

Negative equity: A new crisis in middle-class wealth

In a reversal of the optimism that is typical of Americans, 41% of people in a January 2012 poll—including a majority of seniors—said they feel less financially secure than last year, while just 14% said they feel more secure.

The loss of wealth—and housing wealth in particular—might help explain why.

According to the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, 62.5% of families suffered a loss of wealth from 2007 to 2009. Moreover, says the Fed, “declines in home equity were an important driver of decreases in wealth.”

  • Homes made up 47.6% of the total non-financial assets held by Americans in 2009. Between 2007 and 2009, American homeowners saw their equity drop by a median of 11.8% (or $18,700).
  • From its peak in 2006, the Case-Shiller housing index (the “Dow” of home values) has fallen 32.93%, including an 11.33% decline from October 2008. Median home prices have fallen from $196,600 to $164,100.
  • As many as 12 million Americans are now “underwater” with mortgages that are more than their homes are worth.

 

The loss of home equity has broad implications for the nation’s economy beyond mere sentiments of economic confidence. For example, underwater homeowners can’t qualify to refinance their homes, which means they can’t take advantage of one of the Administration’s most successful monetary policies: low interest rates. A 1% lower interest rate on a $200,000 mortgage can mean $168 less in interest payments per month—money that could be spent in the broader economy on other things.

Underwater borrowers are also stuck in their homes, unable to trade up or move out (a problem that also limits job mobility). Negative equity also means no nest egg for homeowners nearing retirement, and fewer resources to draw on for households seeking to finance a new business, help a child through college or weather out a spell of unemployment or ill health.

Download the report:1.2012-Gold_Kim_Underwater-Home-Values-in-2012-Battleground-States

Policy Brief: All of the Above: What to do about Housing-Now

In the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008, housing was at the top of policymakers’ priorities. Congress saw a flurry of proposals to deal with the mounting wave of defaults and foreclosures, and the collapse of Fannie and Freddie led first to intensive federal intervention and then to one round of full-fledged debate on what the future of these agencies should be.

Today, with housing in at least as bad a shape as it was in 2008, housing is now the forgotten debate. The conversation over Fannie and Freddie has stalled, if not died altogether; the government’s efforts to stem foreclosures have been largely unsuccessful; and with a handful of bold exceptions, few policymakers are putting forward ideas to restore homeowner equity, cope with burgeoning inventory and spark new demand in the market.

But with the economy continuing to sputter, housing is a problem that policymakers can’t afford to ignore any longer.

While some may debate the chicken-and-egg issue of whether housing can lead the recovery or whether a recovery can stabilize housing, there’s no dispute that the health of the housing market and the broader economy are inextricably intertwined. Housing and its related industries account for roughly 19 percent of the American economy.1 Since the housing crash, housing—especially construction—has shed 2.9 million jobs2 since the start of the recession. Not coincidentally, the states with the highest unemployment rates—California, Nevada, Rhode Island, Michigan3—are among the states that have been hit hardest by the housing crisis. Moreover, Americans
have lost $7 trillion in equity,4 which is dampening consumer confidence as well as forcing many families to rethink their future plans and expectations of financial security.

Read the entire brief.

Policy Brief: HomeK Accounts: A Down Payment on Homeownership and Retirement

Two years after the meltdown in the nation’s housing market, housing re- mains weak. Home prices fell to a new low in the first quarter of this year— confirming a feared “double-dip” in the market. Prices are now down nearly 33 percent from their high five years ago.

With housing and its related industries—construction, home retail, etc.— constituting almost 19 percent of the nation’s economy over the last 40 years,2 restoring the housing market will be essential to a sustained eco- nomic recovery. And key to this will be ensuring a robust market for first- time home sales.

Yet, even with home prices as low as they currently are, many potential homebuyers may face more—not fewer—obstacles in their path to home- ownership. In the aftermath of the crisis, credit is tighter, as are down pay- ment requirements. At the same time, the stresses of the economy have meant that potential homebuyers are in worse shape financially than they once were.

The creation of a new, tax-preferred mechanism for down payment sav- ings—a “HomeK”—could help first-time homebuyers navigate these new hurdles while also promoting more savings. And if structured as a carve-out from existing retirement planning mechanisms, not as a new type of ac- count, the HomeK would have the added benefit of promoting retirement savings and will not contribute to further tax code complexity.

Read the entire brief.

WEBCAST: New Solutions for America’s Housing Crisis

New Solutions for America’s Housing Crisis
Event Webcast — October 4, 2011

 

Watch live streaming video from progressivepolicyinstitute at livestream.com

Watch live streaming video from progressivepolicyinstitute at livestream.com

Watch live streaming video from progressivepolicyinstitute at livestream.com

Watch live streaming video from progressivepolicyinstitute at livestream.com

Watch live streaming video from progressivepolicyinstitute at livestream.com

Agenda
Welcome and Keynote Address
8:30 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.

  • Will Marshall, President, PPI
  • Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.)

Panel I: Housing and the Recovery: Current Challenges
9:00 a.m. – 10:15 a.m.
This panel will provide an overview of the current state of the housing market and its impact and importance to the overall economy. Experts will also discuss specific problems within the housing market including: (1) “underwater” mortgages and loss of equity; (2) weak housing demand despite low prices; (3) foreclosures, mortgage modifications and servicer concerns; (4) the role of government in the housing market and GSE reform; (5) “shadow” inventory and REO properties; and (6) impacts on consumer confidence and middle-class wealth.

  • Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D-Cal.)
  • Stan Humphries, Chief Economist, Zillow
  • Ron Phipps, President, National Association of Realtors
  • Phillip L. Swagel, Professor of International Economic Policy, University of Maryland
  • Moderator: Don Lee, Los Angeles Times

Panel II: Jumpstarting the Housing Market: Innovative Solutions
10:30 a.m. – 11:45 a.m.
Leading academics, industry representatives and advocates will describe and debate their unique solutions to stabilize and restart the housing market in the near- and medium-term. Among the proposals to be presented: (1) help for underwater borrowers; (2) solutions to the foreclosure crisis and mortgage modifications; (2) ideas for managing the vast supply of REO properties; and (3) options for jumpstarting sidelined consumer demand for housing, particularly among first-time buyers.

  • Richard Smith, President and Chief Executive Officer, Realogy Corporation
  • David Stevens, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mortgage Bankers Association
  • Kevin Schneider, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mortgage Insurance-U.S., Genworth Financial
  • Ellen Schloemer, Executive Vice President, Center for Responsible Lending
  • Moderator: Jim Tankersley, National Journal

Keynote Address
11:45 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.

  • Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.)

Luncheon Keynote Discussion: The Government’s Role in Housing—Too Little, Too Much or Just Right?
12:30 p.m. – 1:30 p.m.

  • Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President, American Action Forum
  • Michael Mandel, Chief Economic Strategist, PPI
  • Moderator: David Wessel, The Wall Street Journal

Panel III: Housing, Tax Policy and Deficits
1:30 p.m. – 2:30 p.m.
Reducing the nation’s mounting debt and deficit has become an issue of paramount concern for both policymakers and the public. As the recently-formed deficit-reduction “supercommittee” wrestles with what are certain to be difficult choices, tax policies that encourage homeownership—chief among them the mortgage interest deduction— are increasingly the topic of debate. This panel will provide a balanced look at the costs and benefits of using tax policy as a means of promoting homeownership in the broader context of the push toward deficit reduction.

  • Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors
  • Donald Marron, Director, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center
  • Stan Humphries, Chief Economist, Zillow
  • Moderator: Michael Mandel, Chief Economic Strategist, PPI

EVENT: New Solutions for America’s Housing Crisis

Progressive Policy Institutee21

Date
October 4, 2011
8:30 a.m. – 2:30 p.m.

Location
The Liaison Hotel
415 New Jersey Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20001

Join the Progressive Policy Institute, e21 and some of the nation’s best thinkers and leaders on housing policy for a daylong conference aimed at new ideas to restore America’s housing market and jumpstart the economy.

Register for the event.

Policy Brief: Another Kick in the Teeth: Loan Limits and the Housing Market

For weeks, August 2—the date on which the U.S. Treasury might have defaulted on its debts—was the deadline that drove policymakers toward a deal on raising the debt ceiling and lowering the nation’s spiraling debt and deficits.

Another pending deadline—October 1—has won far less attention. But it too could have far-reaching impacts on the U.S. economy if Congress allows it to expire.

This date is when the maximum size of a mortgage loan (the “loan limit”) that can be insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) or bought by government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSE’s) drops significantly. On October 1, these loan limits will fall in 669 counties in 42 states and the District of Columbia, with an average reduction of more than $50,000 and in some cases by more than $100,000. In these areas, many prospective homebuyers once eligible for an FHA loan would no longer qualify, while others may face the prospect of a higher-cost “jumbo” loan.

The result could be the potential sidelining of a key segment of homebuyers, which in turn would further weaken demand, depress home prices and drop another wet blanket on consumer confidence as Americans continue to watch their home equity evaporate. Needless to say, this is the last thing the housing market or the economy needs as it struggles toward recovery.

Without question, government should ultimately pare back its involvement in the housing market and let private capital play the leading role. But this should also happen when the markets are ready, not according to an arbitrary timetable. Unfortunately, the initial conditions that warranted the current loan limits in the first place have not improved substantially. Nor does it seem private sources are ready to jump in if government support were to end.

Read the entire brief.

A New Idea To Fix the Housing Market

The U.S. housing market continues to stumble. The median home price is now at its lowest level since April 2002 and the percentage of Americans who believe that homeownership is a safe investment continues to decline. Meanwhile, policy is largely at a standstill. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner continues to urge a go-slow approach on the phase-out of government supported mortgages through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And all House Republicans can come up with is trying to kill the Obama Administration’s efforts to stem foreclosures through the Home Affordable Mortgage Program (HAMP) and other related programs.

Economist Robert I. Lerman has proposed a cost-effective way to reinvigorate the stalled housing market: The federal government should provide a million vouchers that allow low-income renters to become homeowners and allow some of the two million holders of rental vouchers to convert them into homeownership vouchers.

The plan is outlined in a memo entitled “Homeownership Vouchers: A Plan to Reinvigorate the Economy While Helping Low-Income Families.” It’s written by .

The basic idea is that these vouchers would create a new pool of potential owners to buy up depressed housing stock. Since the federal government already provides rental vouchers, it may as well turn those rental vouchers into ownership vouchers. And actually, doing so would save the government money, since in almost all housing markets mortgage payments would be lower than the market rent.

The plan has other benefits as well. As Lerman writes:

A rise in home prices would reduce the number of homeowners who find their homes worth far less than their mortgages. It would discourage these “underwater” homeowners from walking away from their mortgages; allow more families to refinance at low interest rates, thereby reducing the rate of foreclosures; and, ultimately, it would generate new construction jobs and spur associated job growth. Increased home values also can play an indirect role in job creation, since more small business owners would again be able to use their home as collateral for loans to maintain and expand their business.

In short, “Homeownership Vouchers” is a smart way to stimulate the housing market, expand the dream of homeownership to low-income families, and give the economy some added juice, all while potentially saving the government money.

Read the full report here.

Homeownership Vouchers: A Plan to Reinvigorate the Economy While Helping Low-Income Families

 

While easy monetary policy and a large fiscal stimulus have limited the economic downturn and helped generate modest growth, few believe the economy can grow fast enough to reduce unemployment without the recovery of the housing sector. Yet, no such recovery is in sight. As of late December 2010, the headline story was “Housing Recovery Stalls: Fresh Fall in Home Prices is Headwind for Economy.”1 Construction output remains 30 percent below pre-recession levels and is no higher today than it was a year ago (about 30 percent of all lost jobs were in the construction industry). The unemployment rate among construction workers is about 19 percent, double the national average. There are still 7 million homes in foreclosure or with mortgages that are 90 days delinquent. House prices continue to stagnate.

So far, federal initiatives aimed at shoring up the housing sector have cost tens of billions of dollars but have been ineffective and poorly targeted. The tax credit for homebuyers may have sped up some home purchases, but it did so at a high cost and with benefits flowing to many high-income families. It subsidized purchases that would have taken place without the credit, resulting in a cost to the taxpayer of $43,000 per new home purchased and a total budget cost of $15-20 billion, which was twice as much as Congress expected. President Obama’s Homeowner Affordability and Stability plan has reached only a small percentage of eligible homeowners.

The potential benefits of increasing the demand for owner-occupied housing are enormous. A rise in home prices would reduce the number of homeowners who find their homes worth far less than their mortgages. It would discourage these “underwater” homeowners from walking away from their mortgages; allow more families to refinance at low interest rates, thereby reducing the rate of foreclosures; and, ultimately, it would generate new construction jobs and spur associated job growth. Increased home values also can play an indirect role in job creation, since more small business owners would again be able to use their home as collateral for loans to maintain and expand their business.

Read the Policy Memo

Grading the State of The Union: A Solid B+

Last week, the Progressive Policy Institute released a Memo to President Obama, which contained 10 Big Ideas for Getting America Moving Again. How did the President’s speech match up to our recommendations?

Overall, he did quite well. Eight of our ten ideas were largely consonant with proposals included in the address, and the future-oriented rhetoric echoes the language in our memo. We also appreciate his willingness to look to both sides of the aisle to find solutions.

However, we were disappointed that he did not discuss the sluggish housing market, and that he did offer any ideas to address the roots of the partisan rancor in Washington.

Our overall grade: B+

Here’s a proposal-by-proposal scorecard:

 

1. Removing Obstacles to Growth: A Regulatory Improvement Commission

 

We proposed: A periodic review process conducted by a Regulatory Improvement Commission, modeled loosely on the BRAC Commissions for military base closures.

The President said: “To reduce barriers to growth and investment, I’ve ordered a review of government regulations.”

Analysis: The President clearly understands that we need to prune obsolete and ineffective regulations and stimulate economic innovation and entrepreneurship. But agency self-review is inadequate.

Grade: A-

2. Internal National Building: A National Infrastructure Bank

 

We proposed: Smart, innovative financing solutions that enable us to restore the backbone of our economy. A well-structured National Infrastructure Bank can play this role by leveraging public dollars with the participation of private-sector investors.

The President said: “The third step in winning the future is rebuilding America.  To attract new businesses to our shores, we need the fastest, most reliable ways to move people, goods, and information — from high-speed rail to high-speed Internet.”

Analysis: Making infrastructure one of five sections of the speech gave it real prominence. But the President needs to do more than just propose “that we redouble those efforts.”   He needs to lay out a mechanism to do that rationally, and to identify clear funding for it. A National Infrastucture Bank could accomplish that.

Grade: A-

3. A Way to Pay for High-Speed Rail

We proposed: Restructuring the Highway Trust Fund into a Surface Transportation Trust Fund that recaptures its original mission—to build and maintain an efficient national transportation network—and updates that mission to reflect 21st-century priorities, including upgrades to our passenger and freight rail systems.

The President said: “Within 25 years, our goal is to give 80 percent of Americans access to high-speed rail. “

Analysis: We applaud the President’s full-throated commitment to high-speed rail. However, he’s going to need to figure out a way to pay for it. We suggest he read Mark Reutter’s excellent memo on how to finance high-speed rail.

Grade: A-

4. Restoring Fiscal Discipline in Washington

 

We proposed: Restoring fiscal discipline in Washington by trimming the $1.1 trillion in outdated tax expenditures, capping domestic spending (including defense), eliminating supplemental defense budgets, and slowing mandatory expenditures by reducing benefits for affluent retirees.

The President said: “Starting this year, we freeze annual domestic spending for the next five years… we cut excessive spending wherever we find it –- in domestic spending, defense spending, health care spending, and spending through tax breaks and loopholes… we should also find a bipartisan solution to strengthen Social Security for future generations…we simply can’t afford a permanent extension of the tax cuts for the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans.”

Analysis: The President clearly gets the seriousness of the looming debt crisis, but understands the difference between smart cuts and needed investments. But he could have come out more strongly in favor the Fiscal Commission’s work, and he only paid lip service to entitlements.

Grade: B+

5. Setting National Targets: A Balanced Energy Portfolio

We proposed: A national Balanced Energy Portfolio with a target fuel mix allocated into thirds by 2040: one third of our electricity generated by renewable resources, one third by nuclear power, and one third from traditional fossil fuels.

The President said: “By 2035, 80 percent of America’s electricity will come from clean energy sources.  Some folks want wind and solar.  Others want nuclear, clean coal and natural gas.  To meet this goal, we will need them all — and I urge Democrats and Republicans to work together to make it happen.”

Analysis: The President is thinking big, but also recognizing that nuclear and natural gas need to be part of any energy mix.

Grade: A

6. Greening the Pentagon: An Energy Security Innovation Fund

We proposed: An Energy Security Innovation Fund, housed in the Pentagon, to help companies bridge the gap. Such a fund would leverage public dollars with private money to support research and deployment of the most promising green products.

The President said: “We’re telling America’s scientists and engineers that if they assemble teams of the best minds in their fields, and focus on the hardest problems in clean energy, we’ll fund the Apollo projects of our time.”

Analysis: The next clean energy breakthrough is going to require support from the government. But Obaa should look beyond the Department of Energy and recognize that the military can be a fertile source of innovation, too.

Grade: A-

7. Bringing Public Education into the 21st Century

We proposed: To radically transform public education by growing charter schools, ending teacher tenure as we know it, spurring a network of “Innovation Zones”, and creating a “Digital Teacher Corps”.

The President said: “Our schools share this responsibility.  When a child walks into a classroom, it should be a place of high expectations and high performance.  But too many schools don’t meet this test.”

Analysis: Education is clearly the key to our ability to “win the future,” and the President understands this. We support his Race to the Top program and the call for more bright young people to go into education. But we also hope he thinks more creatively about radical new ideas for 21st century education, embracing the possibilities of charter schools, digital education, and “innovation zones.”

Grade: A-

8. Lifting Housing Markets: One Million Homeowner Vouchers

We proposed: An innovative way to jump-start the housing market would be for the federal government to provide a million vouchers that allow low-income renters to become homeowners.

The President said: (Nothing)

Analysis: Surprisingly, the President failed to mention the sluggish housing market, which many economists believe is one of the leading factors holding back an economic recovery.

Grade: F

9. Align Innovation and Immigration

We proposed: Aligning innovation and immigration by providing a citizenship path for foreign students with advanced technical degrees and illegal immigrants’ children who are interested in national service.

The President said: “I strongly believe that we should take on, once and for all, the issue of illegal immigration… I know that debate will be difficult.  I know it will take time.  But tonight, let’s agree to make that effort.  And let’s stop expelling talented, responsible young people who could be staffing our research labs or starting a new business, who could be further enriching this nation. “

Analysis: The President deserves points for having the courage to bring up immigration reform. But he clearly gets it: our global competitiveness depends on continuing to be a magnet for the world’s best and brightest.

Grade: A

10. Taking Power from Special Interests: A Fair Way to Finance Elections

We proposed: A hybrid Fair Elections system introduced by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) to allow federal candidates to choose to run for office without relying on large contributions by using federal money to match small donations.

The President said: (Nothing)

Analysis: Campaign finance reform is not on the agenda, and the President does not seem particularly interested in putting it there. This is too bad. A great way to break the partisan rancor in Washington would be change the way politicians get elected to office. As long as congressional campaigns are privately funded, and as long as the big donations come primarily from ideologues and special interests, pragmatic candidates are going to have a tough time raising the resources they need to get started, and a difficult time winning in all-important low-turnout primaries.

Grade: F

Conclusion:

Overall, it was a great speech. It laid out the problems that we face as a nation, and provided a vision of an America that invests smartly in the future, building infrastructure, providing educational opportunities, and remaining a magnet for the best and brightest in the world, and all in a way that could move us past partisan divides.

Help wanted: One second-chance job

Back in March, I stepped out of my comfort zone and wrote this op-ed for the Local Opinion page in the Washington Post. For the first time in a good long while, I wasn’t writing about national security, foreign policy, or the military.  Rather, I penned a piece on a mentoring relationship I have with Tim Cofield, a 55 year old bipolar-schizophrenic with serious substance abuse and housing issues.  This weekend, the Post published an update to that piece about the last eight months of Tim’s life.  Here’s an excerpt:

Tim Cofield needed his public defender again way too soon.  After his release from jail in March, I wrote on this page that Tim would soon be back in front of a judge if he did not get consistent access to substance-abuse counseling, mental health care and stable housing. Tim, who turned 55 on Wednesday, is a bipolar-schizophrenic who has rotated in and out of jail, usually for narcotics and parole violations, for most of his adult life.

Eight months later, Tim still isn’t receiving the care he needs. The result has hardly been surprising. His latest incarceration was from mid-October, when he submitted “dirty urines” at substance tests, until last week. It was the cognac Courvoisier, he told me.

It might be unrealistic to think that counseling, mental health services or the long public housing list will be improved overnight, but they don’t have to be. The past eight months convince me that Tim needs to catch one simple break to have a chance at turning his life around immediately: a job.


[A] job would mean much more than a few extra dollars in his pocket. A job would give him a stake in his own life. It would build a sense of accomplishment, occupy time otherwise spent with questionable associates and create a reason to save money for long-term goals. Moreover, as Michelle Singletary wrote in The Post just this month, a job would reduce Tim’s and others’ recidivism and crime throughout the community.

Read the entire piece here.

Photo  credit: Rob