Anne Kim, PPI Managing Director for Policy and Strategy, explains the economics behind the recent “Mommy Wars” at The Washington Monthly:
“By now, every mother in America has heard of Democrat Hilary Rosen’s recent charge that Ann Romney, the wife of presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney and mother of five grown sons, has “never worked a day in her life.””
“Yes, the mommy wars are back.”
“Setting aside the question of whether raising children is “work” (it very much is, by the way), the mommy wars are so divisive because they’re framed in terms of values and choice. Where a woman chooses to work (at home or for a paycheck) is a proxy for her stance on career versus family and which she considers more “important.” Hence, First Lady Michelle Obama’s declaration this week that “families are off-limits” in politics.”
“But treating women’s work as an issue for culture and values misses the boat in a big way. Not only is it elitist, it denies the underlying economic realities of many women’s lives.”
The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey recently released by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) confirms that many U.S. workers know that they are not saving enough for retirement. Two-thirds of workers say they are behind schedule in saving for retirement and only 14 percent of workers are very confident that they are saving enough.
Moderate and lower-income Americans make up a disproportionate share of the workers who are “under-saving” for retirement or not saving at all. While 93 percent of Americans with annual household income above $75,000 report having some savings for retirement, just 35 percent of households with income below $35,000 have any retirement savings. Moreover, the EBRI survey shows that higher-income households are more likely to consult with professional financial advisers, more likely to have determined how much savings they need to accumulate, and more likely to use online technologies to help manage their financial accounts.
The official failure of the congressional “supercommittee” came and went without much hand-wringing in Wingnut World; indeed, the prevailing sentiment was quiet satisfaction that Republicans had not “caved” by accepting tax increases as part of any deficit reduction package. It was all a reminder that most conservative activists are not, as advertised, obsessed with reducing deficits or debts, but only with deficits and debts as a lever to obtain a vast reduction in the size and scope of the federal government, and the elimination of progressive taxation. For the most part, the very same people wearing tricorner hats and wailing about the terrible burden we are placing on our grandchildren were just a few years ago agreeing with Dick Cheney’s casual assertion that deficits did not actually matter at all.
It is interesting that throughout the Kabuki Theater of the supercommittee’s “negotiations,” the GOP’s congressional leadership came to largely accept the Tea Party fundamental rejection of any compromise between the two parties’ very different concepts of the deficit problem. From the get-go, Democrats were offering both non-defense-discretionary and entitlement cuts in exchange for restoring tax rates for the very wealthy to levels a bit closer to (though still lower than) their historic position. The maximum Republican offer was to engage in some small-change loophole closing accompanied by an actual lowering of the top rates in incomes, plus extension of the Bush tax cuts to infinity. Conservatives are perfectly happy to let an on-paper “sequestration” of spending take place, with the expectation that a Republican victory in 2012 will put them in a position to brush aside the defense cuts so authorized and then go after their federal spending targets with a real vengeance.
The GOP presidential candidates have offered two opportunities during the last week for wingnuts of a particular flavor to assess their views and character. The much-awaited Thanksgiving Family Forum in Des Moines was perhaps the first candidate forum of the cycle in which no one even pretended to set aside cultural issues in favor of an obsessive focus on the economy or the federal budget. The format, involving not a debate but a serial interrogation of candidates by focus group master Frank Luntz, was explicitly aimed at getting to each contender’s “worldview,” the classic Christian Right buzzword for one’s willingness to subordinate any and all secular considerations and choose positions on the issues of the day via a conservative-literalist interpretation of the Bible (i.e., one in which phantom references to abortion are somehow found everywhere, and Jesus’ many injunctions to social activism are treated as demands for private charity rather than redistributive efforts by government).
According to The Iowa Republican’s Craig Robinson in his assessment of the event, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry were the only candidates who succeeded in articulating a “biblical worldview” under Luntz’s questioning. Newt Gingrich got secular media attention for his Archie Bunkerish “take a bath and get a job” shot at the dirty hippies of OWS, but inside the megachurch where the event was held, the star was probably Santorum, whose slim presidential hopes strictly depend on Iowa social conservatives adopting him as their candidate much as they united around Mike Huckabee in 2008.
It is interesting that immediately after the event, Rick Perry joined Santorum and Bachmann as the only candidates willing to sign the radical “marriage vow” pledge document released back in July by the FAMiLY Leader organization, the primary sponsor of the Thanksgiving Family Forum. This makes him eligible for an endorsement by FL and its would-be kingmaking founder, Bob Vander Plaats. It appears a battle has been going on for some time in Iowa’s influential social conservative circles between those wanting to get behind a “true believer” like Santorum or Bachmann and those preferring to give a crucial boost to acceptable if less fervent candidates like Perry or Gingrich. The outcome of this internal debate, which was apparently discussed in a private “summit” meeting on Monday, will play a very important role in shaping the endgame of the Iowa caucus contest—as will the decision by Mitt Romney as to whether or not he will fully commit to an Iowa campaign (he is opening a shiny new HQ in Des Moines, which some observers are interpreting as an “all-in” gesture).
Without question, it became abundantly clear during the last week that the “Gingrich surge” in the nomination contest is real, or at least as real as earlier booms for Bachmann, Perry and Cain. The last five big national polls of Republicans (PPP, Fox, USAToday/Gallup, Quinnipiac and CNN) have all showed Gingrich in the lead. The big question is whether and when his rivals choose to unleash a massive attack on the former Speaker based on their bulging oppo research files featuring whole decades of flip-flops, gaffes, failures and personal “issues.”
Interestingly, though, Gingrich may have already opened the door to suspicious wingnut scrutiny without any overt encouragement from his rivals. During the last week’s second major multi-candidate event, the CNN/AEI/Heritage “national security” debate last night, Gingrich may have ignored the lessons of the Perry campaign by risking his own moment of heresy on the hot-button issue of immigration, calling for a Selective Service model whereby some undocumented workers with exemplary records could obtain legal permanent status if not citizenship. He was immediately rapped by Romney and Bachmann for supporting “amnesty.” We’ll soon see if Newt’s long identification with the conservative movement and his more recent savagery towards “secular socialists” will give him protection from such attacks, or if his signature vice of hubris is once again about to smite him now that he’s finally become a viable candidate for president.
Yesterday was Election Day in scattered parts of the country, and it was not a terribly successful election night in Wingnut World. Two ballot initiatives of special importance to hard-core conservative activists—Ohio’s Issue 2, an effort to overturn the state’s anti-public-union legislation, and Mississippi’s ballot item #26, an initiative to define legally protected human “personhood” as arising at the moment of conception—both went pretty solidly the wrong way from their perspective. Another less-visible initiative, in Maine, aimed at restoring same-day voter registration, which conservatives invariably oppose, passed easily, though Mississippi voters did approve a new voter ID law.
Statewide elections went as expected. Democratic KY Governor Steve Beshear was comfortably re-elected despite last minute charges by his Republican opponent that his presence at a Hindu ceremony connected to an Indian company plant opening indicated he didn’t love Jesus. In Mississippi, Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, a strong supporter of the Personhood initiative and a wingnut in good standing, nonetheless easily won the governorship over Hattiesburg mayor Johnny DuPree, the state’s first African-American gubernatorial nominee.
Downballot, Democrats easily won an Iowa special election to hold onto control of the state Senate (Republicans control the House and the governorship), but in Virginia, lost enough Senate seats to throw control of that chamber into a deadlock (there, too, GOPers control the governorship and the House), probably compelling a power-sharing arrangement.
But the big national news of the night involved the ballot initiatives in OH and MS. Repealing Gov. John Kasich’s S.B. 5, which radically limited collective bargaining rights for public employee unions, was a major national priority for labor, and also attracted a high-dollar pushback from out-of-state business and conservative groups, especially in the last few days before the vote. The margin of victory for the “No on 2” forces, 61-39, exceeded most expectations, and could affect anti-labor initiatives in other states. Given Ohio’s pivotal position in presidential elections, the vote will also be viewed by some as a trial heat for GOTV efforts in 2012, and as a reminder that the GOP’s success in 2010 was not necessarily part of a multi-cycle trend.
Mississippi’s Personhood ballot initiative also had considerable national implications, representing the most audacious goals envisioned in the anti-choice movement’s ongoing drive to undermine abortion rights at the state level. Aimed at defining human life as beginning at the moment of fertilization, Personhood initiatives are broadly understood as aimed not only at a total, no-exceptions abortion ban, but at an ultimate ban on birth control methods (the day-after pill, IUDs, and arguably oral contraceptives) that act after fertilization. A Personhood ballot initiative in Colorado failed dismally in 2010, but its proponents figured a state like Mississippi would be (if you will excuse the expression) more fertile ground, and succeeded in obtaining overwhelming support from GOP elected officials in the state, and even some Democrats. The 58-42 margin of defeat for the initiative on what was otherwise a fine day for Mississippi conservatives showed significant defections by GOP voters. In Harrison County (Biloxi), for example, a county where John McCain won 63 percent of the vote in 2008, and where voters yesterday gave a conservative voter ID initiative 64 percent, only 35 percent voted for the Personhood initiative.
While Personhood initiatives may continue to pop up, the Mississippi results will probably convince anti-choice activists to refocus on the more incremental strategy of “fetal pain” legislation and other restrictions based on the timing and nature of abortions, which are still in a constitutional limbo until court challenges are heard, along with an intensified effort to elect a Republican president in 2012.
The interest in yesterday’s elections provided a small and probably insignificant respite for presidential candidate Herman Cain, whose political condition has worsened dramatically thanks to the emergence of one of his two original sexual harassment accusers, and the appearance of a third woman who claims Cain committed what amounts to sexual assault. The Cain campaign’s poor handling of the allegations has continued, with the candidate holding a widely derided press conference yesterday to issue a series of wild conspiracy accusations, and a potentially self-destructive offer to take a polygraph exam. The saga shows no signs of ending soon, and although Cain has maintained his national and early-state first- or second-place standing in most of the scattered polling conducted after the allegations first emerged last week, there are signs it’s beginning to take a toll. Just as importantly, Cain’s erratic handling of the mess is beginning to embolden conservative opinion-leaders to break ranks and either challenge his account of his behavior, or simply write him off as too politically inept to be taken seriously as a presidential candidate.
Assuming Cain either weakens or crashes, the big question is whether that development will (a) cause Republicans to begin to unite around Mitt Romney as the safest choice in an exceptionally unstable field, (b) fuel a comeback by Rick Perry, from who Cain harvested the bulk of his October polling surge, or (c) lead to a late pre-Iowa surge by some other candidate with Tea Party appeal, such as Newt Gingrich or even Rick Santorum (whose monomaniacal grassroots campaign in Iowa is drawing some positive attention).
The only candidate who seems to have been gaining in the polls during Cain’s unraveling is Gingrich; a battery of new PPP polls in Mississippi, Ohio, and the Iowa state senate district holding a special election yesterday, all showed something of a Gingrich surge (he’s actually leading the field in MS).
The prospect of what he called “The Newtening” was so shocking to shrewd political analyst Jonathan Chait that he concluded: “It is probably time for me to stop making predictions of any kind about this race.” At a minimum, the pre-election candidacy crisis in Wingnut World should deter us all from betting the farm on any specific outcome.
There are still some observers in Washington who believe congressional Republicans will be forced by President Obama’s jobs speech and proposal to cooperate with Democrats on some sort of emergency economic legislation. But that’s not the perception, and certainly is not the inclination, of the citizens of Wingnut World, who greeted the president’s speech with a combo platter of ideological hostility and mocking indifference.
Almost universally, conservative opinion-leaders insist on calling the proposal a “stimulus” rather than a “jobs” bill. Given their equally universal claim that the 2009 economic stimulus legislation did not create any real jobs (viz. Rick Perry’s claim during the Florida candidates’ debate), this indicates its dead-on-arrival nature among conservative leaders and probably the House. Once the White House made it clear it proposed to “pay” for the jobs proposal with measures that include a limitation on itemized tax deductions by high earners, conservative condemnation solidified even more.
The bigger picture, of course, is that conservatives have long settled on a message and policy agenda that insists nothing other than business tax cuts, federal spending cuts, and aggressive deregulation can possibly be considered as helpful to the current and future U.S. economy. Public investments? That’s just a code word for more spending or worse yet, pork. Temporary relief for the unemployed or the under-employed? That’s just more stimulus, reflecting the failed ideas of John Maynard Keynes. During the long GOP presidential debate on September 12, no concept beyond disabling government was mentioned by any of the candidates with respect to reviving the economy.
But aside from hostility to the specifics of Obama’s proposal, another note is steadily creeping into conservative messaging on the economic and other debates in Washington: contempt for the president’s political influence. Here’s National Review’s Victor Davis Hanson on the jobs proposal:
In truth, Obama is out of arrows. His quiver is bare, because he came into office as a rhetorical president without much experience or any ideas other than growing even bigger a tired big government. And now the public realizes that both the speeches and the big spending do not work. The result is that we collectively know what the president cannot any longer say — and it proves far greater than what he can say. He is well past the point of Jerry Ford’s WIN buttons or Jimmy Carter’s fist-pounding malaise speech.
This sense that Republicans have nothing to fear any longer from Obama (in the same piece quoted above, Hanson compared Obama today to George W. Bush towards the end of his second term) is increasingly pervasive, and will almost certainly be intensified by hype over the Republican victory in the special election to fill Anthony Wiener’s House seat in New York. If New York Jews are abandoning Obama, many conservatives are undoubtedly saying to themselves, how can he possibly win in 2012?
If, as has been convincingly argued, Obama’s jobs speech represented a definitive effort to force Republicans into a choice between cooperation and a damaging display of indifference to the country’s economic suffering, conservatives show every indication that they will happily risk the latter. This in turn could have an effect on the tone of the GOP presidential contest, where a very confident party with fewer fears about electability could indulge itself in a base-pleasing competition tilting very far right.
The CNN-Tea Party Express debate in Florida certainly showed signs of that dynamic. A lot of headlines about this and the previous candidates’ debate focused on criticisms of Rick Perry’s harsh rhetoric on Social Security, suggesting that there was in fact a limit to how far right the primary electorate would choose to let a potential nominee go. But the fact that uber-conservative Michele Bachmann has joyfully joined in the bashing of Perry for disrespecting the very existence of Social Security shows that this may be less a matter of sensitivity to mainstream public opinion and more a matter of recognizing the strong popularity of federal retirement programs among conservative base voters—who are on average relatively old. Meanwhile, Perry’s right flank was meaningfully exposed during the debate in exchanges on immigration and his aborted effort to inoculate Texas schoolgirls against the HPV virus. He’s in some danger of looking like he feels more compassion towards illegal aliens and sexually active teenagers than towards the conservative seniors who belief they have earned every nickel of their Social Security and Medicare benefits.
The skirmishing between Perry and other candidates in the debate may have helped obscure the virtual unanimity of the candidates in support of policy positions that would have been considered wingnutty as recently as the last presidential cycle. (The shouts from the audience of “Yes!” when moderator Wolf Blitzer asked if a hypothetical person with no health insurance who is suffering from a fatal disease should be allowed to die was representative of the gulf between the conservative GOP base and the rest of the country). One interesting exception was foreign policy, where first Jon Huntsman and then Rick Perry called for an end to the U.S. combat role in Afghanistan without explicit contradiction from other candidates. It will be interesting to see if Perry’s rivals, especially Mitt Romney, choose to go after Perry from the right on this subject in a direct appeal to what used to be called one leg in the three-legged- stool of American conservatism: “national security conservatives.”
As President Obama puts the finishing touches on his jobs package, let’s hope it includes a helping hand for Americans on the lowest rungs of the job ladder—those struggling to make the transition from welfare to work.
President Clinton’s landmark 1996 welfare reform ended the old entitlement to public assistance, limiting the time people can remain on the rolls. That law reconceived welfare as a way station to jobs and self-sufficiency. Strongly reinforced by a booming economy, tight labor markets and expanded subsidies for low-wage work, the new policy sparked a dramatic exodus from the welfare rolls.
Now, with unemployment nearly twice as high and job growth sluggish at best—the economy generated no net new jobs in August—the picture is very different. At a time when everyone is having trouble finding work, it hardly seems fair to expect welfare administers to sustain previous levels of job placement for people with little education and other disadvantages.
Some liberals believe the answer is to suspend the 1996 reform and allow welfare rolls to start swelling again. There’s a better way: Give employers incentives to hire welfare recipients. Until recently, many states were doing precisely that, with excellent results.
In fact, one of the most successful job-creating programs in recent years was the little-known TANF Emergency Fund included in the 2009 stimulus package. The fund provided states $5 billion over two years for basic assistance, short-term benefits, and subsidized employment. According to a joint report by the Center for Law and Social Policy (CLASP) and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), 37 states used about $1.3 billion of the fund to subsidize employment. This led to the creation of over 260,000 jobs.
According to the CBPP, the emergency fund was a “‘win-win-win,’ helping unemployed families find work, businesses expand capacity in a difficult economic environment, and local economies cope with the recession.” Illinois, at first intending to only place 15,000 people, placed more than 30,000 and had 60,000 apply. Since pay far surpassed welfare or unemployment benefits, families were able to pay their bills and participants gained valuable work experience. Some were even hired into unsubsidized positions. These jobs often replaced cash assistance—South Carolina’s previously rising welfare caseloads dropped after the state introduced its subsidized jobs program.
The jobs programs were also popular with businesses. Hiring subsidized employees helped many small businesses expand and avoid layoffs. The programs were efficient too—according to CLASP and CBPP, “administrators of EF-funded subsidized jobs programs regularly reported that businesses were eager to participate because it was easy to do so.”
All in all, it was an immensely popular program that enjoyed bipartisan support. Even Mississippi’s arch conservative Governor Haley Barbour, who rejected billions in federal stimulus dollars, praised the program, said that it would “provide much-needed aid during this recession by enabling businesses to hire new workers, thus enhancing the economic engines of our local communities.”
Unfortunately, the Emergency Fund expired last September after Senate Republicans blocked a last-minute push by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) for a three-month extension. Most states were forced to end or scale down successful jobs programs.
In voting to kill the program, Sen. Mike Enzi (R-Wyo.) charged that it rewarded states for increasing welfare spending. States either have to show a caseload increase or higher spending to qualify for the Emergency Fund. It seems odd to criticize the states for drawing down the Emergency Fund during an economic emergency—and the last several years certainly qualify as an emergency. To many Republicans, apparently, welfare reform simply means booting people off the rolls, not helping them find work.
With TANF set to expire next month, progressives in Congress should make replenishing the Emergency Fund a top priority for reauthorization. Better still, lawmakers should adopt a proposal by Gordon Berlin, president of MDRC, for “a permanent emergency fund that would only be triggered by high poverty and unemployment indicators.”
The word is that the President Obama is also eyeing a similar approach to job creation—a program called Georgia Work$. Popular with both parties in that state, the program matches unemployed people with local businesses for eight weeks of workplace training. Workers continue to get unemployment checks as well as a weekly stipend, and businesses essentially get free labor with the option to hire the worker when the program ends.
Georgia Work$ is not without its share of problems—its massive popularity nearly bankrupted the program—but it provides further evidence that, with a little help from the government, employers will step up and hire those struggling through the downturn.
It will cost money to put unemployed people into real-world jobs that help them earn income and acquire work skills. But subsidizing work sure beats expanding either the welfare or the unemployment rolls.
Some liberal commentators marked the 15th anniversary of welfare reform this week with a curious lament: Welfare rolls aren’t growing fast enough.
“If you think the point of the program is to help the poor, then no, welfare reform is not working,” asserts Ezra Klein of the Washington Post. He cites an article by Jake Blumgart in The American Prospect, who frets that welfare rolls have “merely inched upward” during the late recession and jobless recovery.
“At the heart of the worst recession in 80 years, TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families) funds only reached 4.5 million families, or 28 percent of those living in poverty,” Blumgart writes. “By contrast, in 1995, the old welfare system covered 13.5 million families, or 75 percent of those living in poverty.”
Before we wax too nostalgic for the good old days of big welfare rolls, it’s worth remembering that progressives led the charge for welfare reform.
“Ending welfare as we know it” was arguably President Bill Clinton’s most radical challenge to the political status quo, and the biggest policy change to happen on his watch. By the time he took office in 1992, the welfare system was held in nearly universal contempt by Americans across the socio-economic spectrum. Not only had it failed to make a dent in poverty, but taxpayers believed it undermined work, personal responsibility and family. The system also had failed the poor, providing them neither effective preparation for work or links to jobs, nor public subsidies sufficient to lift them out of poverty.
Clinton had a better idea: Rather than subsidizing dependence on the state and isolation from the economic mainstream, public assistance ought to require and reward work. To “make work pay,” Clinton got Congress in 1993 to approve a massive expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit, which is essentially a “work bonus” for low-wage earners. The credit has become a social policy rarity—an anti-poverty program that actually works.
On Aug. 21, 1996, after having vetoed two draconian bills sent to him by the Republican Congress, Clinton signed a law which put a time limit on benefits, and replaced the old, open-ended welfare entitlement with a block grant to the states. In combination with the work bonus and other reforms (e.g., cracking down on deadbeat dads and expanding child care support) and a robustly growing economy, the results were galvanic.
More than 7 million people left the rolls between 1996 and 2001. From its peak of 14.4 million in March 1994, the number of people on welfare dropped by 63 percent to 5.3 million in 2001. Millions of welfare recipients left the dole for jobs. Teen pregnancy and out-of-wedlock birth rates dropped dramatically. And the number of Americans living in poverty declined dramatically, by nearly 8 million people.
While some liberals predicted that ending the entitlement would produce scenes of Calcutta-style misery in America—and a few quit the Clinton administration in protest—the public heartily approved. By realigning U.S. social assistance with a strong work ethic and personal responsibility, Clinton’s reforms helped mitigate public hostility toward public assistance and unlock Americans inherent generosity—overall federal and state spending (including EITC costs) to support low-income families actually rose after 1996. They also deprived culture warriors of a favorite, racially tinged theme: When was the last time you heard a Republican candidate mock “welfare queens?”
In the late 1990s, of course, jobs were plentiful. Now the economy isn’t creating enough jobs to bring unemployment back down to earth. Obviously this undercuts policies aimed at speeding transitions from welfare to work, and liberals are right to draw attention to the hardships the jobless recovery imposes on our most vulnerable families.
But they are wrong to assume that welfare’s cash payments are somehow still central to America’s efforts to fight poverty, relieve social distress or shorten recessions. Clinton’s emphasis on “work first” made the unemployment system, rather than welfare, the safety net of first resort for low-income families in downturns. And indeed that is what has happened.
“Unemployment benefits substitute for welfare: three in ten low-income (below 200 percent of the federal poverty level) single parents received unemployment benefits in 2009, double the share receiving in 2005. This suggests that as more single mothers went to work during the late 1990s and early 2000s, more could qualify for unemployment benefits in the event of job loss. Also, many states have recently expanded eligibility for unemployment benefits.”
The other big, countercyclical response to the recession and sluggish job growth has come from the food stamp program (now called SNAP). Last month, the Urban Institute reported that nearly 45 million people receive help from SNAP, an increase of about 69 percent since the recession began in 2007. Many states have seen dramatic growth in their food assistance caseloads as well.
In other words, poor families increasingly rely on other social supports to tide them over hard times. Liberals have a point, however, in arguing against enforcing strict time limits on welfare benefits during a prolonged job drought. Although the Clinton reforms held up well during the 2000-2001 recession, this one is far worse. The “work-first” architecture isn’t perfect, and progressives should be open to sensible modifications based on new and unforeseen economic challenges.
Rather than resurrect the old dependency-fostering entitlement, however, progressives should try more creative approaches. We should be prepared to spend more money to help more families from sinking into poverty through no fault of their own. But, in keeping with the spirit of Clinton’s reforms, new funding should go to support work. This could take the form of a new public works initiative or—perhaps more likely, given GOP control of the House—direct subsidies to employers to hire low-income workers.
The states already have the ability to waive work requirements for a portion of their caseloads; Washington could broaden such authority temporarily, until job growth starts to pick up. Here again, the challenge will be getting GOP austerity freaks to get in touch with their inner “compassionate conservative.”
In any event, it’s hard to see how relitigating the 1996 reform will help the poor. The entitlement ethos isn’t exactly making a comeback in America. And there’s no evidence it would work any better now than before.
On his show last week, Chris Matthews of MSNBC’s Hardball recommended that the president “pork out.” Remember those pet infrastructure projects Republicans sacrificed at the altar of declared fiscal discipline? Matthews wants the president to serve up a feast of pork as a temporary jobs plan.
The basic premise of the Matthews’ plan is that the president packages–in one bill–all of the pet projects that were requested over the past two years by Congress but failed to become law. Discarding the projects that are wasteful or don’t create jobs, the president sends the bill to Congress testing where the GOP’s allegiance lies: with the nation’s 25 million unemployed or the political gain of depressing the economy.
Can a serving of pork really pass Congress and create jobs?
Possibly. Much of the pork spending is basically targeted infrastructure spending. Bipartisan support for earmarks has been historically pervasive, and remains widespread today despite a House enforced moratorium. Senator Lindsay Graham (R-Tenn.) threatened to shutdown the Senate over $50,000 toward deepening the Charleston harbor, and presidential candidate Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) sneaked a $700 million bridge overhaul past the earmark ban by not listing the actual cost of the bridge in the bill.
Quick calculations state that if every $1 billion of federal spending spent creates 11,000 job-years and the jobs are temporary, one year long, then allocating $10 billion would create roughly 110,000 gross jobs. Funds could be weighted to ensure the states with the highest unemployment rates receive the most money.
Furthermore the current state of the economy is a rare moment of slack in the inherent tension that exists between federal spending and private investment. Worries that earmark spending muscles out the private businesses are exemplified in a Harvard study that found earmarking by certain Congressman can lead to a 15 percent decrease in that districts’ private sector spending — a worrisome proposition. Except, right now corporations are not spending and instead are sitting on $2 trillion in cash. Federal spending repercussions are lessened because there is little private spending to crowd out.
To preempt deficit hawks, the plan should be part of a long-term deficit reduction package or paired with back-loaded spending cuts to be revenue neutral. An ideal deficit reduction plan would include a much-needed boost to the job market through targeted short-term infrastructure spending supported by former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff while reducing the deficit over the long term. While a national infrastructure bank would be idyllic, political realities make pork a workable substitute for targeted infrastructure spending.
A good bully pulpit speech could help extinguish any other political opposition. The specificity and detailed local impact of the pork makes the plan a powerful political cudgel.
Envision the president trotting out to the Rose Garden bill in hand, declaring, “The economy is hurting, but I have a jobs plan right here that’ll create over 100,000 jobs right now at a time when 9.1 percent of Americans are out of work. It won’t add one dime to the deficit but it will pay for a wastewater treatment plant in Nevada where the state unemployment rate is 12.9 percent. Yet your representative, Dean Heller, won’t support it. It won’t add one dime to the deficit, but it will pay for a college in Florida where the state unemployment rate is 10. 7 percent. Yet your representative, John Mica, won’t support it.”
Rinse and repeat that speech for three days, and it’s hard not to expect a few Republican defections. Standing tall for spending cuts is fun and games until your district gets hurt. Even if for some reason the plan doesn’t pass, the tenor of Washington will finally be attuned to what the people want and need – jobs.
Back in April, House Republicans tried to kill funding for a couple of the right’s favorite bête noires: Planned Parenthood and the Title X federal grant program for family planning. Stymied by Senate Democrats, conservative culture warriors have moved on to what they see as more promising battlegrounds: states with GOP governors or legislatures.
Measures to defund Planned Parenthood already have passed in North Carolina, Indiana, Kansas, and Wisconsin, and are pending in several other states. The states have different strategies for cutting Planned Parenthood out of the action. Mostly, they bar state governments from contracting with the organization for family planning services using federal Medicaid and Title X dollars. Planned Parenthood notes that some states are withholding federal grants specifically earmarked for the organization.
New Hampshire’s Executive Council recently voted to reject a $1.8 million contract with Planned Parenthood. Council Member Raymond Wieczorek explained, “I am opposed to abortion. I am opposed to providing condoms to someone. If you want to have a party, have a party but don’t ask me to pay for it.”
As Weiczorek’s comment makes clear, conservatives aren’t just aiming at their usual target, abortion, but at contraceptives as well. Scott Walker, Wisconsin’s Republican Governor boasted during his campaign of “trying to defund Planned Parenthood and make sure they didn’t have any money, not just for abortion, but any money for anything.”
The right’s jihad against Planned Parenthood and family planning is likely to cause the opposite of its intended effect. Making it harder for people to get access to contraception will result in more unintended pregnancies, some of which undoubtedly will end in abortion. And if such bans are not reversed, there’s a high risk of collateral damage to a cause Republicans presumably support: reducing the epidemic of teen and unplanned pregnancy in America.
With over 400,000 girls aged 15 to 19 giving birth each year, America’s teen pregnancy rate is among the highest of all industrialized countries. Nearly one-quarter of teen mothers go on welfare within three years of having a child, and according to the CDC, lack of access to contraceptives is a key factor contributing to high teen pregnancy rates, a problem that costs taxpayers nearly $11 billion a year.
As I wrote here, teen pregnancy also plays a large role in the nationwide dropout crisis—30 percent of girls who drop out of high school cite pregnancy or parenthood as a key reason they left school. The close connection between teen pregnancy and dropping out of school is another compelling reason not to cut funding for family planning programs.
Contraception, which Planned Parenthood and other family planning clinics provide at a low cost, significantly reduces unplanned pregnancy and in turn reduces the number of abortions. Studies show that easier access to birth control pills decreases abortion rates drastically. In fact, most of the decline in teen pregnancy rates in the U.S. is due to teens’ more consistent contraceptive use.
Republicans want to punish Planned Parenthood for providing legal abortions, even though abortion accounts for only 3 percent of its services. In addition to affordable contraception that prevents teen and unplanned pregnancy and abortions, Planned Parenthood also provides other vital health services for women, like cancer screening and prevention, STD testing and treatment, and prenatal care.
According to a Guttmacher Institute study, 1.94 million unintended pregnancies are prevented each year by services provided at family planning clinics. Of these averted pregnancies, 400,000 would have occurred among teens. Defunding Planned Parenthood would deal a huge blow to crucial efforts to prevent teen pregnancy, undermining clinics’ capacity to provide sex education and teen pregnancy prevention initiatives. The same study finds that 810,000 abortions were prevented by services provided at family planning clinics. Without these services, the abortion rate in the U.S. would be two-thirds higher than the current rate.
Planned Parenthood isn’t taking this lying down. The organization has already won lawsuits defending abortion rights in Kansas and South Dakota. In Indiana, it won a legal battle when a district judge blocked enforcement of the defunding measure. The Obama Administration has made it clear to Indiana that cutting off Medicaid funds to Planned Parenthood is illegal—the law says that Medicaid beneficiaries can choose any qualified healthcare provider they wish. Planned Parenthood is also suing over North Carolina’s budget provision that cuts the organization off from any federal and state funds.
Cutting the number of abortions ought to be a goal that unites progressives and conservatives. Instead of slashing funding for clinics that provide fundamental health services for young and low-income women, Republicans should put their focus on reducing the need for abortions. The GOP’s moral guardians may not like it, but this means encouraging responsibility through safe sex and contraceptive use and continuing to fund family planning programs that help prevent teen and unplanned pregnancy and abortion.
In recent months, Jack Lew, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have asserted that Social Security is not part of the federal budget problem. The federal government’s biggest program, they say, has ample resources to cover legislated benefits over the next 25 years. Therefore, lawmakers need be in no hurry to tackle Social Security’s long-term funding gap.
As a long-time analyst of U.S. retirement policy, I believe these claims are fatally flawed. In fact, Social Security’s financing costs already are adding to the federal government’s overall debt burden. Moreover, the longer we wait to rebalance the program, the higher the economic and political costs of the adjustments that must be made.
From a progressive perspective, I find it disconcerting that, instead of strengthening Social Security for future generations, leading Democrats are instead finding excuses not to deal with the system’s real but quite manageable fiscal gap. Having studied and written about Social Security’s history, I can’t help but compare such evasions with the rigorous sense of fiscal responsibility and intergenerational justice shown by the system’s creator, Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Over in Democracy: A Journal of Ideas, Elbert Ventura has an excellent piece about progressives’ inability to develop a “coherent vision” – a guiding sense of history that can provide both context and narrative for progressive accomplishments and ongoing political struggles. Contrast this to the political right, which has, with relentless impetuousness, pushed a once-fringe view of American history that casts the 20th century as one big nightmare betrayal of founding principles, thus setting for itself the task of restoring the world’s largest economy to a golden age of agrarian farming.
“History is being taught – On TV and talk radio, in blogs and grassroots seminars, in high-school textbooks and on Barnes & Noble bookshelves,” writes Ventura. “In all of those forums conservatives have been conspicuous by their activity – and progressives by their absence.” (Full disclosure: Ventura is a friend and my predecessor as managing editor of ProressiveFix.com)
Perhaps, as Ventura goes on to suggest, “Part of it may be the progressive orientation – our eyes are always cast toward the next horizon, not the one behind.”
But let me toss out another possibility. Arguably, the political left lost its abiding faith in ideas by putting too much faith in ideas.
Let me explain: A previous era of liberal thought put great faith in the capacity of human rationality. But ideas led to hubris, and hubris led to overreach, and ultimately to policy failures. Lacking humility, liberals over-estimated their ability to achieve social justice ends in through top-down technocratic means. Constituencies who had been helped by the New Deal did not benefit from the Great Society, and instead grew anxious and angry.
In response, the idea of planning became socialism, which became communism. Critics repeatedly traced the facile road-to-serfdom syllogism that any attempt to improve the workings of society winds up with Stalin and Hitler.
For progressives, the lesson from the failure of 1960s idealism should have been to approach big ideas and grand narratives with a requisite caution. Instead, the lesson seemed to be abandoning big ideas altogether.
But what didn’t change for progressives was the political program. Instead, it became increasingly unmoored from a larger narrative. Lacking a grand story, progressivism increasingly decayed into a kind of interest group liberalism. A coalition once formed for a grander purpose became a tangle of single-interest groups fighting myopically to defend yesterday’s victory. Rather than being a means to the social justice ends it was designed to achieve, familiar liberal policies became ends in and of themselves.
The conservative story was different. Four decades ago, a kind of principled Burkean conservatism was a legitimate response to a genuine assessment that the Great Society had not turned out so great after all; Contra the great liberal narrative of progress through collective action, conservatism warned of the folly of grand gestures and the humility of human endeavors.
But then, in the grandest of all grand gestures, conservatism went ahead and embraced radical theories of its own — about economics, about tax cuts, about the role of government — and effectively went from simply yelling “stop!” to aggressively yelling “rewind!” Far from principled caution, conservatism took on a utopianism that put even the most liberal of 1960s liberals to shame.
That modern conservatism has not been effectively dismissed as antithetical to the traditional conservatism is truly remarkable. To quote Sam Tanenhaus, the New York Times book review editor who has proclaimed conservatism dead: “What passes for conservatism today would have been incomprehensible to its originator, Edmund Burke, who, in the late eighteenth century, set forth the principles by which governments might nurture the “organic” unity that bound a people together even in times of revolutionary upheaval.” Burke would be horrified at a Tea Party rally.
The question then becomes, why have we given conservatives a free pass on this? The answer is that it’s hard to challenge one narrative if you don’t have an alternative.
We can argue over what that progressive narrative ought to be, but let me offer up my preferred candidate: an embrace of progressivism’s relentless experimentation as a kind of philosophy in and of itself, the kind of pragmatism that FDR expressed when he famously said, “Do something. If it works, do more of it. If it doesn’t, do something else.”
Or put another way: a hopeful but humble faith that there is some rough-and-tumble thing called human progress, some long arch that does bend towards justice eventually, even if that eventually is far into the horizon. A telling of history that recognizes that there are no easy answers, only a series of hard problems that we must confront with humility. We must always strive, but never promise.
As Arthur Schlesinger Jr. wrote in the conclusion of TheVital Center: “Problems will always torment us, because all important problems are insoluble: that is why they are important. The good comes from the continuing struggle to try and solve them, not from the vain hope of their solution.” (The same sentiment can be found in the writings of the progressive theologian Reinhold Niebuhr: “Democracy is finding proximate solutions to insoluble problems.”)
To me, this is a fighting faith, and a story. That the history of America has mostly been a history of, in FDR’s words, trying things and if they work, doing more of them, and if they don’t trying something else. It’s only in recent years that politics has become more about trying things, and if they don’t work, trying them again and again and blaming circumstances or your opposition if they still don’t work. This is not a fighting faith. It’s surrendering to faith.
We need something better. Conservatives have gone overtime in re-telling American history as a mistake that must be undone. We need to tell history in a way that moves forward.
The Senate this week rejected House Republicans’ “chainsaw massacre” approach to deficit reduction, voting down a $61 billion hit list of domestic programs – including, shockingly, a number designed to reduce teenage pregnancy and abortions.
It’s one thing for Republicans to go after such perennial targets as National Public Radio. For decades, however, conservatives have warned that the breakdown of the nuclear family is devastating poor communities. That Republicans now want government to abandon efforts to curb teen pregnancy shows how far the Tea Party has pushed its agenda.
During Bill Clinton’s presidency, Democrats and Republicans stopped fighting over whether poverty is caused by irresponsible behavior or social and economic injustice. They agreed that both were implicated in the explosion of out-of-wedlock births and single-parent families, and they tried to do something about it.
One of the salient realities of politics is that much of the contention revolves around efforts to get the news media and the public to focus on events that reinforce one group’s point of view over others. There are, of course, front-and-center national and international news developments that literally command attention. But when it comes to, say, a noisy dispute over a budget in a medium-sized state, you’d normally see one side or the other trying to “nationalize” the event to gain external allies.
But that’s what is most fascinating about the ongoing saga in Madison, Wisconsin: what began as a series of union protests against Gov. Scott Walker’s efforts to take away public employees’ collective bargaining rights, and then evolved into a national cause célèbre for unions and progressives generally, has become of equal importance to the Right, where the belief that Walker is sparking a nationwide revolt against “union thugs” is very strong.
Even as polls in Wisconsin and nationally show Walker with relatively low and flagging levels of support for his confrontational tactics, conservative gabbers are treating the events like the Battle of Algiers. The highly influential RedState blog has become completely obsessed with Wisconsin and its political and economic implications; on Monday of this week, the site featured no less than five front-page posts on the subject. Here’s a taste of the tone, from RedState diarist Mark Meed:
I appreciate it might seem unnecessarily provocative to compare union thugs to dogs — especially to those in the moderate attack dog community — so let me offer a “scratch behind the ears” qualification. These aren’t just any dogs, they’re the ones out of “Animal Farm”. These are the pack animals that are inevitably dispatched when socialists run out of other people’s money, and those other people finally notice.
Nice, eh? But the focus on Wisconsin is not limited to the fever swamps of the conservative blogosphere; it’s breaking out on the presidential campaign trail as well. Tim Pawlenty released a video with dramatic footage of the Madison protests and ending with the proto-candidate himself gravely intoning: “It’s important that Americans stand with Scott Walker, stand with Wisconsin.” Newt Gingrich recently devoted his Human Eventscolumn to a lurid characterization of the Wisconsin fight. A sample:
In Madison, Wisconsin, we are witnessing a profound struggle between the right of the people to govern themselves and the power of entrenched, selfish interests to stop reforms and defy the will of the people.
Not a lot of nuance there. Meanwhile, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is taking some conservative heat for failing to follow Walker’s lead in declaring war on unions, compounding the hostility he earlier aroused by calling for a “truce” on cultural issues.
There is one underlying difference of opinion among conservatives about Wisconsin that’s worth noting and pondering: while some focus strictly on public-sector unionism, others view the assault on public-employee collective bargaining as just one front in a broader fight against unions and collective bargaining generally. Most obviously, conservatives are aware of the important role of unions in Democratic Party campaign financing and voter mobilization efforts, and naturally welcome any opportunity to weaken the “other team” (even as they characterize Democratic defenders of unions as parties to a corrupt bargain that shakes down taxpayers and businesses for higher wages and benefits in exchange for political assistance).
But some conservatives are willing to go further and denounce all forms of collective bargain as either corrupt, as coercive, or as incompatible with economic growth. Here’s Robert VerBruggen writing for the National Review site:
In reality, “collective bargaining” is when a majority of employees vote to unionize, and then the union has the legal right to represent all the employees. In other words, it forces workers to accept unions as their bargaining agents, and it forbids employers to negotiate with non-union workers on an individual basis.
A more colloquial version of this argument was made by a conservative blogger calling himself USA Admiral:
There is no real use for [unions]. If you can’t negotiate your own contracts, you need to be flipping burgers.
The larger, macroeconomic case against unions as an institution in the private as well as the public sector is mainly made by Right-to-Work agitators, but it occasionally is taken up by conservative politicians as well. It’s probably not surprising that the most overt stance against the very existence of unions was recently made by South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who appointed a corporate labor relations lawyer (i.e., someone whose job is to oppose unions and unionization) to head up the state labor department. Haley was not shy about her motivation in taking this unusual step: “She [the appointee] is ready for the challenge,” Haley said. “We’re going to fight the unions and I needed a partner to help me do it. She’s the right person to help me do it.”
In the end, the sense that Scott Walker is fighting the ancient enemy of the conservative movement probably best explains why so many conservatives can’t resist blowing the Wisconsin saga up into an apocalyptic struggle of immense importance. If Walker loses, it will be interesting to see if he’s treated as a martyr or just as insufficiently vicious.
While easy monetary policy and a large fiscal stimulus have limited the economic downturn and helped generate modest growth, few believe the economy can grow fast enough to reduce unemployment without the recovery of the housing sector. Yet, no such recovery is in sight. As of late December 2010, the headline story was “Housing Recovery Stalls: Fresh Fall in Home Prices is Headwind for Economy.”1 Construction output remains 30 percent below pre-recession levels and is no higher today than it was a year ago (about 30 percent of all lost jobs were in the construction industry). The unemployment rate among construction workers is about 19 percent, double the national average. There are still 7 million homes in foreclosure or with mortgages that are 90 days delinquent. House prices continue to stagnate.
So far, federal initiatives aimed at shoring up the housing sector have cost tens of billions of dollars but have been ineffective and poorly targeted. The tax credit for homebuyers may have sped up some home purchases, but it did so at a high cost and with benefits flowing to many high-income families. It subsidized purchases that would have taken place without the credit, resulting in a cost to the taxpayer of $43,000 per new home purchased and a total budget cost of $15-20 billion, which was twice as much as Congress expected. President Obama’s Homeowner Affordability and Stability plan has reached only a small percentage of eligible homeowners.
The potential benefits of increasing the demand for owner-occupied housing are enormous. A rise in home prices would reduce the number of homeowners who find their homes worth far less than their mortgages. It would discourage these “underwater” homeowners from walking away from their mortgages; allow more families to refinance at low interest rates, thereby reducing the rate of foreclosures; and, ultimately, it would generate new construction jobs and spur associated job growth. Increased home values also can play an indirect role in job creation, since more small business owners would again be able to use their home as collateral for loans to maintain and expand their business.
The 2011 Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) meeting in Washington over the weekend provided, as always, a sort of dysfunctional family picnic for the self-conscious Right, and an opportunity for a large cast of would-be 2012 presidential candidates to tug the forelock to The Movement and beat up on the godless socialist foe.
Aficionados of conservative ideological infighting had a lot of entertainment at this year’s CPAC. There was, as reported in last week’s Wingnut Watch, lots of maneuvering over participation in the conference, with the conservative gay organization GOProud and the conservative Muslim group Muslims for America serving as the big flashpoints.
While most CPAC attendees (and some not attending, such as Sarah Palin) more or less defended inclusion of GOProud, its leader, Chris Barron, did himself no favors by calling critics “bigots.” There are reports the group won’t be invited back next year. Similarly, Muslims for America’s patron, anti-tax commissar Grover Norquist, made few friends by calling critics of CPAC’s agenda “losers,” and promptly earned an anathema from Red State’s Erick Erickson, who called on conservatives to come up with a better venue for coordination than Norquist’s famous Wednesday meetings.
The most visible sign of ideological problems at CPAC involved, predictably, the Ron Paul brand of libertarians, who noisily heckled the presentation of a “Defender of the Constitution” award by Dick Cheney to Donald Rumsfeld. (Paulites might justly claim this was too much provocation for any libertarian to resist, and CPAC organizers really screwed up by scheduling the award just after a speech by Rand Paul.)
But the social conservative complaint that fiscal hawks, libertarians, and/or political pragmatists were trying to subordinate their agenda probably exposed a more serious problem for the Right, and also a source of considerable confusion about the much-envied role of the Tea Party Movement. Certainly those, most conspicuously Indiana governor Mitch Daniels, who have argued for a temporary suspension of any talk about cultural issues, are being touted by many observers as representing the Tea Partiers’ alleged single-minded focus on deficits, debts, and limited government.
But no less prominent a figure as Rush Limbaugh has sought to identify the Tea Party Movement with social conservatives and indeed with anyone wanting an ideologically exclusive Republican Party:
Talk-radio host Rush Limbaugh, himself considered a conservative icon, blasted this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference for drowning out tea partiers and those concerned with social issues, lamenting, “That’s not the CPAC that I’ve always thought of or known.”
Saying he was concerned that “I might just drum myself out of a movement,” Limbaugh blamed the “ruling class” at CPAC for missing the message of the 2010 election, namely that there is “an unmistakable conservative ascendancy happening in this country,” evidenced most prominently in the tea-party movement….
Instead, Limbaugh said, CPAC seemed smitten with the idea of dumping traditionally conservative values in order to broaden the Republican Party’s tent.
“So you had a weird list of priorities and focus. I mean we had it all,” Limbaugh said. “We had GOProud, the gay conservatives. We had demands to legalize drugs, marijuana at CPAC. Most conservatives strongly oppose gay marriage and legalized pot.”
He continued, “The position of some people who spoke at CPAC: ‘Look, if you’re worried about immigration, stop it. We don’t want to be seen as racist. Stop talking about abortion, stop talking about the social issues, stop talking about all this. That’s only gonna hurt; we don’t need to deal with that in our party.’ This is what the ruling class guys were saying at CPAC.”
A conservative movement that can’t decide whether Mitch Daniels is the leader of the Tea Party Movement, or its deadliest “ruling class” enemy, has got some issues to sort out.
Ideological conflict aside, the role of CPAC as the first serious event in the Invisible Primary leading to the Republican presidential nomination was on full display this weekend, but produced no game-changing results.
The presidential straw poll held on the final day of the conference was easily won, for the second year in a row, by Ron Paul (whose collegiate admirers were out in force), an outcome that instantly devalued it as a indicator of future developments in the nominating process. Mitt Romney, whose PAC probably devoted more resources to the conference than anyone else’s, finished second, while every other name wound up in the low-to-mid single digits.
As for speechifying, there were some putative presidents who did better than others (though experts differed on “winners and losers”), but no real knockout punches or disasters. None of the longest shots (e.g., Herman Cain, John Bolton, Rick Santorum) did anything to vault themselves into serious contention.
Most candidates modestly met their most immediate needs. Tim Pawlenty showed he could give a fiery red-meat speech. Haley Barbour touted a right-wing record as governor of Mississippi (boasting of both Medicaid cuts and harassment of abortion providers), reminding listeners he’s a serious reactionary, not just a fundraiser. Mitt Romney stuck to tried-and-true conservative themes and showed once again he’s as smooth as Obama as a speaker. Mitch Daniels dealt with his “cultural issues truce” problem, and interestingly enough, did so by doubling down on his argument that fiscal issues, the “red menace” of our time, have to come first. Newt Gingrich showed he can still wow a live audience with his wonkery and one-liners.
It’s not really clear, however, that the no-shows (most notably Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee) lost anything by spending their weekend elsewhere.
We’ll soon see if the ideological fissures exposed by CPAC continue to widen or instead subside; the internal fights of the congressional GOP over legislative and budget priorities show all’s not well on that front.
Meanwhile, it’s finally fish-or-cut-bait time for GOP presidential candidates, or those who don’t already have near-universal name ID and some sort of history with Iowans. Newt Gingrich has said he’ll make up his mind whether to run by the end of February; John Thune seems to be on the same timetable. Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels, both sitting governors, will wait until their current legislative sessions end in April. At present, you’d have to guess Gingrich and Barbour are in, while Thune and Daniels are out, though nobody knows for sure. And it’s anybody’s guess what Palin and Huckabee will do; the shape of the field will remain amorphous until those two figure out how they will spend their time in 2012.
Events unfolding in Egypt are cause both for celebration and concern. Extremely important questions for American national security are at stake in the orientation of the Egyptian government that emerges from this period of upheaval. A fundamental question looms large: Will the Egypt that emerges be a reliable US ally and a force in for peace and security in the Middle East?
Key questions surround the Muslim Brotherhood, a well-organized force in Egyptian society. Though reformist factions exist within the Muslim Brotherhood’s leadership, the group’s stated opinions on issues of sharia law, women’s rights, relations with Israel, and the legitimacy of terrorism should give American policymakers pause.
As we begin to assess the Muslim Brotherhood, here are nine questions we should all ask of and about the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies:
1. Can the Muslim Brotherhood participate in a government where Egypt continues its obligations to Israel under the Camp David Accords? Could it lead such a government? Muslim Brotherhood party leader Mohamed Ghanem said on Iranian TVthat Egypt should stop selling gas to Israel and prepare the Egyptian army for a war with the Jewish State, echoing the 2010 declaration of Muslim Brotherhood Chairman Mohammed Badie that the Camp David Accords violate the laws of Islam and have “lost all credibility.” Likewise, a Brotherhood leader told NHK TV this week that as soon as there was a post-Mubarak government it must break peace with Israel.
2. Can the Muslim Brotherhood lead or even be part of a government that continues extensive counter-terrorism cooperation with Israel and the United States, as conducted by the last government? In 2008 Muslim Brotherhood Supreme Guide Muhammad Mahdi Akef in 2008 declared that that violence against civilians of the kind practiced by Osama Bin Laden is justified against “occupiers” and opponents of Islam.
3. Under the Muslim Brotherhood, would the Egyptian government continue to fulfill Egypt’s international obligations and keep the Suez Canal open for all international shipping, including that of America and Israel?
4. Can the Muslim Brotherhood participate in an Egyptian government that maintains the Western-backed closure of the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip? Could it lead such a government? In June 2010 Muslim Brotherhood Guidance Bureau member Essam El Erian announced that the border of the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip should be opened.
5. Would the party sit in a coalition government with female cabinet ministers? Could it lead such a government? In 2008 Muslim Brotherhood Executive Bureau member Mahmoud Ghozlan insisted that “women and non-Muslims don’t have the right to lead or govern Muslim states,” echoing the sharia-based gender segregation in all sectors of life called for by Muslim Brotherhood founder al-Banna.
6. Given Iran’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood’s sister terrorist organization Hamas, under the Muslim Brotherhood, would Egypt participate in the international sanctions regime against Iran?
7. Does the Muslim Brotherhood intend to push Egyptian lawmakers to adopt Koran-based law for Egyptian Muslims and former Muslims, including mandating death for apostasy?
8. Does the Muslim Brotherhood intend to push Egyptian lawmakers to adopt Koran-based law in regard to Egyptian non-Muslims, including denying full legal recognition to religious minorities such as Copts? In a 2008 interview by Supreme Guide Muhammad Mahdi Akef insisted that Copts could not lead Islamic states such as Egypt.
9. Would a Muslim Brotherhood government seek to execute homosexuals as do other sharia-guided states? In a 2008 interview Muslim Brotherhood Executive Bureau member Mahmoud Ghozlan emphasized that homosexuality needed to be outlawed.