By Tamar Jacoby
The West has been speculating about the size of Vladimir Putin’s appetite since Russian troops began massing on the Ukrainian border in early 2022, with many predicting even then that the war would spill over into Central Europe. But the situation on the ground has changed in recent months. “It’s one thing to speculate and make plans in theory,” a Polish government official told our group. “It’s very different when you’re actually facing a threat.” Now, more than two years into the war, with Russia poised to break through in Ukraine and international support for Kyiv flagging, many in Poland are actively preparing for war.
Poland’s predicament starts with its all-too-familiar geography. An overwhelmingly Catholic nation of 41 million people, it sits at a bloody crossroads—what a member of parliament called “our cursed position on the map of Europe between Russia and Germany.” Much of Poland, he reminded us, including Warsaw, was part of Russia from 1795 until 1918, and the Soviet Union dominated it for most of the second half of the 20th century. Poles and Ukrainians have often found themselves on the same side of history. But the relationship fragmented during and after World War II, when ethnic tensions erupted in the massacre of some 100,000 Poles and communist authorities moved more than a million Poles and Ukrainians from one side of the border to the other.
After Putin invaded Ukraine, Poland emerged as one of Kyiv’s best friends in Europe. In the first months of the war, it welcomed over 3.5 million refugees, and hundreds of thousands of Polish families took Ukrainians into their homes. Polish President Andrzej Duda was among the first foreign leaders to visit wartime Kyiv. Warsaw began sending materiel to Ukraine—first tanks, then helicopters and fighter jets taken directly from its own active-duty units.
