So far so good: The White House china survived in tact. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, PA President Mahmoud Abbas, Jordanian Prince Abdullah, and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak managed to dine peaceably last night with President Obama. No plates thrown, no glasses busted in anger.
I wrote a quick piece the other day about what to watch for coming out of these talks. In terms of body language and messaging, everyone’s saying the right things.
When the talks get down to specifics, what should we look for? Martin Indyk has a smart column at The Daily Beast where he lays down some critical markers. The first, as I’ve discussed previously, is the September 26th deadline to lift the moratorium on construction in Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Getting Netanyahu to give even an inch on his pledge to lift it would be a big win for Abbas. Finding a face-saving way so Bibi’s right-ist coalition partners don’t abandon him is this trick.
Indyk’s proposal might just do it:
Obama should use the limited time available before the settlement moratorium actually expires at the end of this month to focus the negotiators on defining the western border of the Palestinian state. The Palestinians have already agreed in previous negotiations to the principle that some settlement blocs will be annexed to Israel as part of a land swap. If negotiators can agree on which blocs will be absorbed by Israel, settlement activity can continue there, while the moratorium is extended everywhere else.
I think that’s mostly right. Defining the final boarders is only one of the elements to a negotiated solution, but resolving a first issue to both parties’ satisfaction would be an incredible confidence-building measure.
The elephant in the room is Jerusalem, whose final status will remain one of the most contentious matters. A way forward might include negotiating a solution for the rest of the West Bank and the handful of Israeli settlements in suburban Jerusalem, like Gilo, that both sides know will one day be part of Israel. The city’s political composition can wait for another day.
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