New Jersey’s official narrative on climate action highlights “remarkable progress” toward the legislated goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. However, a closer inspection of the data reveals that the state’s low per-capita emissions are fundamentally tied to its unique demographic and economic profile rather than a transition to a carbon-free energy grid.
New Jersey has some of the lowest emissions per person and relative to the size of its economy in the nation, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (see Fig. 1). The state is by far the most densely populated (see Fig. 2), transit use is high, and car use below average, limiting transport emissions. Coal-fired generation has been phased out, and nearly all electricity comes from gas and nuclear, cutting emissions from the power sector (see Fig. 3). Electricity and gas prices are well above average (see Fig. 4), but consumption is low, ensuring total energy spending is among the lowest in the country (see Fig. 5). But like other states in the PJM Interconnection, New Jersey’s power prices have climbed significantly in 2024 and 2025 to the highest in real terms for six years, with further increases expected in 2026, driven by capacity shortages and growing demand from data centers.
Furthermore, the state’s economic output is dominated by professional services and finance, sectors that are not energy-intensive compared to heavy manufacturing. New Jersey’s emissions per $1 million of output (137 tons) are the seventh-lowest in the nation and 35% below the national average (See Fig. 6).
The state has been more successful than most in lowering emissions. Emissions were cut to 91 million metric tons in 2023 from 130 million in 2005. The decline was much faster (2.0% per year) than across the country as a whole (1.2% per year), as gas replaced coal and oil-fired generation and heating systems, while population growth has been slow.
Because of the successful coal generation phaseout and the demographic and economic efficiencies that are already in place, deeper emission reductions are inherently more challenging. The low-hanging fruit, in decarbonization terms, has already been picked. Accordingly, the state’s mandated energy transition is now on a direct collision course with working families’ need for affordable fuel and a reliable grid. Most critically, the transition is increasingly straining energy affordability for residents, as evidenced by a historic electricity rate increase of nearly 20% in 2025, fueled by surging demand from data centers and a constrained regional power market.
