Operating robots, 2020*
3 million ‘Industrial’
0.1 million ‘Professional’ services
32 million ‘Consumer’
* International Federation of Robotics, 11/21
Karel Capek’s R.U.R., which introduced the word ‘robot’ to the world’s vocabulary 101 years ago, is a cautionary tale. In Act 1, enthusiastic human inventors and business promoters predict that robots will bring the end of scarcity, the abolition of degrading manual labor, and the opening of an age of universal “freedom from worry.” By Act 3, in a sense, they get their wish, but in a way that comes as an unpleasant surprise.
A century later, and two generations since the first industrial robot* went live, how close are we to either of Capek’s predictions?
World Robotics 2021, the annual survey from the International Federation of Robotics, counts 3 million working industrial robots, 109,000 “professional” services robots, and about 32 million blue-collar “consumer” robots at work around the world last year. By their counts, the heartlands of industrial robotics are in East Asia:
(a) Japan is the largest robot-maker, producing 136,000 new robots in 2020. This was over a third of the 384,500 new robots installed worldwide.
(b) Korea is the world’s most roboticized industrial economy, with nearly 932 robots per every 10,000 factory workers, double the 400-to-10,000 ratio of a decade ago. Singapore is a relatively close second at 605 robots per 10,000, with Japan third at 390. Rounding out the top ten are Germany at 371, Sweden at 289, Hong Kong at 275, the U.S. at 255, Taiwan at 248, and China and Denmark at 246 each.
(c) China is home to the world’s largest operating robot workforce. Over 800,000 robots were working in Chinese factories at the end of 2019, and 168,400 more came online in 2020. IFR’s worldwide count of new robots was 384,50, meaning that China accounted for nearly half of all new robot installations. Japan placed a distant second with 38,700 new robots and the U.S. was third at 30,800. By industry, the largest numbers of new robots in China and Korea go to electronics assembly and semiconductor production; in the United States and Germany, they are in the automotive industry; in Japan, automotive and electronics more or less equally.
IFR guesses that 2021 saw 435,000 new robot installations; the count is likely to top half a million for the first time in 2024, with nearly all the projected net growth in Asia. Meanwhile, about 100,000 more complex services robots are at work (transport and logistics; cleaning; agriculture; hazardous waste disposal); and in homes, about 32 million vacuuming, gutter-cleaning, security, and other domestic robots are in fact at least diminishing the human quotient of manual labor. R,U.R.’s universal plenty and absence of worry (and their sinister hidden meanings) have yet to materialize.
* “Unimate,” at a General Motors auto plant in New Jersey, in 1961.
Global highlights from the International Federation of Robotics’ World Robotics 2021.
… or, downloads of highlights for industrial and services robots.
The New York-based Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers has a weekly new-robot video. Try the creepy burrowing robot.
… and also a sentimental look back at Unimate.
Industry and research international
Most roboticized industry: The Korean Association of Robot Industry.
Largest producer: The Robotics Society of Japan.
A semiconductor manufacturing robot.
Singapore has a robot-police patrol dedicated to scolding people.
And from Germany a (slightly dated) video on the bleak human future — passive, outmoded future-man sits glumly in chair as mechanical “DynaMaid” mockingly inquires about his “day at work.”
A few looks ahead, and one look back, from robot arts & lit
Capek’s R.U.R. (1921) invented the word “robot,” and the classic “robot uprising” plot. The title acronym stands for a fictional “Rossum’s Universal Robots” company, and “Rossum” is a slightly modified version of the Czech word for “reason.” A Penn State robotics academic looks at R.U.R. a century later.
In robot-friendly Japan, by contrast, Astro-Boy (said to be the first anime character) is a helpful friend to humanity.
Stanislaw Lem’s “Mortal Engines” collection speculates about machine intelligence. In “The Hunt,” a well-meaning human pilot volunteers to destroy a supposedly mad robot; next, in “Mask”, a troubled, self-aware female robot-assassin tracks down a political dissident.
Philip K. Dick thought humans and robots would lose the ability to distinguish themselves from one another.
And was Capek really the first? Adrienne Mayer’s “Golds and Robots: Myths, Machines, and Ancient Dreams of Technology” looks at androids, flying cars, computers, and other semi-inventions of classical Greece, with comparators from India, Babylon, and the mechanical men of the Qin Dynasty court.
Laugh while you can
The International Federation of Robotics publishes research papers as well as annual statistical reports. Their research-paper link features a standard human-chauvinist “Captcha” request form; to get one of the papers, you have to certify that “I’m not a robot.” Bad idea! The robots will find out, and they might be angry.
Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.
Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.
Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.
Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.
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