1929 | 13.5% |
1933 | 19.8% (modern-era peak) |
1940 | 12.5% |
1960 | 7.1% |
1980 | 3.1% |
2000 | 1.6% |
2010 | 1.4% |
2015 | 1.5% |
2020 | 2.8% |
2023 | 2.4% |
2025 | ? |
*Trade-weighted” averages, dividing tariff revenue by goods import value. U.S. International Trade Commission, at https://www.usitc.gov/documents/dataweb/ave_table_1891_2023.pdf.
WHAT THEY MEAN:
The incoming administration has — it says — a plan for the first big U.S. tariff increase since Herbert Hoover’s in 1930. But as PPI’s Ed Gresser observes in Tariffs and Economic Isolationism: Four Principles for a Response today (borrowing some post-Hoover lyrics) even at this late date, a week before the inauguration, whatever this plan might be ain’t exactly clear. With a detailed response still premature, his piece offers four principles as a foundation:
1. Defend the Constitution.
2. Connect tariffs and trade policy to American family living standards, growth, and work.
3. Stand by America’s neighbors and allies.
4. Offer a positive alternative.
Some background first, then a bit more on each:
Trump campaign documents, and more recent transition statements, float at least five tariff plans, mostly incompatible: (i) a higher overall tariff, of 10% or possibly 20%, probably stacked on top of the current 2.4%, imposed by decree after a declaration of “emergency”; (ii) threats to impose tariffs on particular countries over unrelated policy issues, also presumably by decree; (iii) a new “Rube Goldberg” tariff schedule in which every U.S. HTS-8 line is equal to or higher than the precisely comparable line in every other customs territory; (iv) a Congressional bill like Hoover’s; (v) tariffs on products administration officials decide are especially sensitive. Since it isn’t clear which (if any) of these is the “real” plan, for now, critics need no detailed analysis or response. But we can start with two basic observations and principles applicable to all:
Tariffs and their uses: Tariffs have some valid uses. They can provide temporary protection for industries trying to rebuild competitiveness, for example, or help to economically isolate an aggressor state. But they always raise costs for families and goods-using businesses, incite foreign governments to retaliate against American farm and manufacturing exporters, and often reward good lobbyists more than good products. As Laura Duffy points out in her PPI report last fall, tariffs are also inequitable and regressive as both consumer and business taxes. So they’re generally poor policy, and governments should reserve them for the unusual cases where they’re really necessary.
The Biden record and its lessons: Critics should not be bound by “Bidenomics,” and, in fact, should make some clear breaks with it. President Biden’s 2021-2024 program had many good results — steady growth, low unemployment, a strengthened semiconductor industry, and progress on decarbonization. But it ended as a political liability, and his approach to tariffs contributed to this. Despite several useful trade innovations (e.g., the Commerce Department’s export promotion ideas and the Treasury’s “friendshoring” concept), the administration abandoned the market-opening, liberalizing values of Roosevelt-to-Obama Democrats and tried instead to blur differences with Trumpism by leaving Mr. Trump’s 2018/19 tariffs mostly untouched. This cost the Biden team a chance to bring down prices by cutting tariffs; left it unable to assign the first Trump term its appropriate share of blame for the post-Covid inflation burst; and (as we warned in mid-2023) by 2024, lacked the positive growth-and-living-standards agenda that should have complemented Vice President Harris’ forceful critique of Trump’s tariff hikes.
Now back to the four principles:
1. Defend the Constitution. The Constitution gives Congress full authority to set “Taxes, Duties, Imposts, and Excises.” For good reason: if a president can create his or her own tariff system by decree, not only do impulsive and ill-considered decisions become more likely, but all future presidents would face standing temptation to use tariffs in corrupt ways to reward supporters and cronies, or punish critics and rivals. Attempts to impose tariffs by perverting existing laws meant for wholly different purposes – emergency actions meant for a sudden crisis, trade negotiating leverage, etc. – and rule by decree rather than legitimate (even if ill-judged) legislation breach the separation of powers and harm the Constitution, and should be opposed on principle.
2. Connect tariffs to American family living standards, growth, and work. Tariffs are usually poor policy. As consumer taxation, they hit single moms much harder than stockbrokers, and average families much more than wealthy households. As business taxes, they raise costs for goods-purchasers — manufacturing, retail, restaurants, farms, building contractors — more than for investment- and services-heavy industries like real estate and finance. And as trade policy, they invite retaliation against America’s $3 trillion export sector — top in the world for agriculture, services, and energy, and second in manufacturing — whose factories and farms deserve better than to have an administration turn them into trade-war cannon fodder.
3. Stand by America’s allies and neighbors. America’s alliances with democracies and close relations with neighbors are strategic assets built over decades. Mr. Trump’s use of his free time in these past months to pick fights, including through tariff threats, with allies and neighbors from Canada and Denmark to Mexico and Panama has thus been an especially corrosive and disturbing part of this transition period. Economics apart, these countries have stood with the U.S. when it counted a lot — not long ago, and at a considerable cost. Remember, for example, that Denmark lost 43 soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan and Canada 158. Neither deserves repayment with bullying and economic threats. The right policy is to deepen and strengthen these relationships, and to oppose attempts to erode and weaken them through tariff threats.
4. Offer a positive alternative. Though the incoming administration’s plans are uncertain, and there’s no need yet for a detailed alternative, it’s useful even now to consider the shape it might take. The essay suggests three lines of policy:
* International engagement: Modernized trade agreements to deepen and strengthen economic relationships with friends, neighbors, and allies. These can include U.S.-Europe agreements with the United Kingdom as an immediate choice; a return to the 15-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, now functioning very well as the “CPTPP” for Japan, Australia, Canada, and other allies, including the U.K.; and using the 2026 “USMCA” “review” to broaden that agreement to Caribbean, Central, and South American countries.
* Domestic reform to cut costs: Cut the cost of living for hourly-wage families by scrapping especially regressive, discriminatory, and sexist tariffs, with the Pink Tariffs Study Act introduced by Representatives Lizzie Fletcher and Brittany Pettersen as the starting point.
* Constitutionally appropriate policymaking: Here the Prevent Tariff Abuse Act introduced in December by Reps. Suzanne DelBene and Don Beyer, which excludes tariffs from actions presidents can take under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, sets the example.
Here’s the piece.
Gresser on Tariffs and Economic Isolationism: Four Principles for a Response.
More from PPI on trade policy, tariffs, and America in the world economy:
Gresser’s December 2024 testimony to the Joint Economic Committee on the implications of a higher national tariff.
…and from early 2023, his warning (in response to a disquieting speech by the National Security Advisor) about the Biden administration’s poor tariff-and-trade positioning for a rematch with Trumpism.
Laura Duffy’s It’s Not 1789 Anymore explains why, though tariffs were the best of a poor set of options for the first Congress in 1789 and remain important for revenue in very low-income and troubled countries today, they’re a bad form of taxation — high rates and narrow base mean they can’t raise enough revenue, also opaque, regressive, and inequitable.
Yuka Hayashi’s The U.S. Wants Manufacturing to Drive Growth. Foreign Friends Can Help on pooling economic strengths with allies.
And just for the record …
What happened the last time the U.S. government tried a general tariff increase? Herbert Hoover’s “Tariff Act of 1930”, colloquially known as “Smoot-Hawley” for its Congressional authors Sen. Reed Smoot and Rep. Willis Hawley, passed on a rainy June day in 1930. Metaphorically, the rain continued for years:
U.S. GDP, 1929*: | $1.191 trillion |
U.S. GDP, 1930: | $1.090 trillion |
Real GDP growth, 1930: | -8.5% |
Real GDP growth, 1931: | -6.4% |
Real GDP growth, 1932: | -12.9% |
U.S. GDP, 1933: | $0.877 trillion |
Unemployment, 1933: | 24.9% |
* Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP in ‘real’ 2017 dollars; U.S. 2024 GDP by this measure is now $23.4 trillion.
Modern economic historians view this tariff increase not as a main cause of the Depression – conventionally dated as starting eight months earlier, with the stock market crash of late October 1929 — but as a bad idea that made it deeper and longer. (Depending on one’s preference, “main causes” include financial-system collapse and serial bank failures without deposit insurance, absence of a “lender of last resort” for distressed but viable sectors, failure of government to respond with fiscal stimulus as household spending collapsed, Federal Reserve interest policies, the “gold standard” as an international factor, and so on.) The tariff increase created no jobs or investment, and the foreign retaliations it brought helped wreck the export sector and seal potential routes to relief. Four looks at the experience:
Charles Kindleberger’s analytical The World in Depression, 1929-1939
J.K. Galbraith’s The Great Crash, 1929 on the view from Wall Street in the months before Smoot-Hawley.
Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1936 Address to the Inter-American Conference on the Maintenance of Peace in Buenos Aires, looks back six year later on rising trade barriers, the collapse of trade, and their effects on peace and security.
And Douglas Irwin’s Peddling Protectionism has a contemporary take at the Hoover administration, Congress, the Tariff Act of 1930, and its consequences.
Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.
Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.
Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.
Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.