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Size: The economy is noticeably larger. Measured by “GDP,” the U.S. economy of 2024 is likely to come in at about $28.1 trillion in “real,” inflation-adjusted, 2023 dollars or perhaps a little more depending on the last two quarters’ growth rates. In these “real dollars,” this is about 13.5% larger than the $24.8 trillion of 2020, and 11% larger than the $25.3 trillion of 2019. Put another way, the $3.4 trillion or so added since 2020 is slightly below the IMF’s forecast for India’s $3.9 trillion total GDP and the UK’s $3.5 trillion, and nearly double Russia’s $2.05 trillion.

Employment: More Americans are working. This autumn, 159 million workers, execs, and interns go to offices, labs, factories, construction sites, and so forth each morning. (Or to the restaurant kitchen in the evening, the farm or home office any time of day, the hospital ward or security office for a night shift.) That’s 17 million jobs, more than the 142 million of January 2021, and 10 million more than the pre-COVID 149 million of January 2020. An additional 10 million workers, as a point of comparison, is the same as the total labor force of the Netherlands; 17 million would fall between Australia’s 14 million workers and Canada’s 22 million.

Income: The “distribution” of money to all these people has become a bit less skewed, as we noted earlier this month, and a bit better for hourly-wage workers. The Census Bureau’s data for “median family income” — that is, income for the family in the exact middle of America’s 131 million households — provides one angle: median income (again in “real” inflation-adjusted dollars) at $80,610 as of 2023, up $1,050 from the $79,560 of 2020, with African American family median income growing fastest at $2,650. Or, taking the “worker” rather than the “household” perspective, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “real wage” reports show something similar: wages are up about 2% on average from the levels of early 2020 just before the pandemic, with especially fast growth in some blue-collar fields: 9% real wage growth for gas station attendants, 5% for clothing retail staff, 7% for hotel workers, 8.7% in auto repair shops, and 8.0% for beauty shop and hair salon specialist.

Composition: The economy has shifted a bit. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (the official GDP tracker) reports that growth has been fastest in information and services industries, making them now somewhat larger relative to the other parts of the economy than they were four or five years ago. Using 2019 as a base, BEA’s “GDP by Industry” reports show “information industries” — internet, computer networks, media – up by 36% or by $380 billion in real, inflation-adjusted terms, as the digital economy has grown about four times as fast as the rest of the economy. A related BEA category, with the vague and expansive title of “miscellaneous professional, scientific, and technical services,” is up 32% or by $300 billion. Elsewhere, real estate is up by 17% or (given its large original base) $410 billion), manufacturing by 12% or $200 billion, retail likewise by 12% and $150 billion; restaurants and food service, are still not fully recovered from their especially severe pandemic shock, are down by -1% or by $6 billion.

Science: Finally, looking ahead, the research-and-development workforce has boomed. Since January 2021, 150,000 new R&D scientists have joined the sci/tech workforce — 885,000 now, 735,000 then. If you start at pre-COVID January 2020, the jump is even higher: 190,000 net new lab rats. Figures for R&D spending take a few years to tabulate, but the National Science Foundation’s reports show U.S. R&D spending up from 3.0% of GDP in 2019 to 3.4% in 2022 — about 30% of all world research, and relative to the economy the U.S. ranks fourth in the world, behind only South Korea, Taiwan, and Sweden. All this hints at new inventions and rising productivity in the late 2020s and early 2030s.

So: To answer the basic question, yes, we do seem better off: a larger economy, with inflation down after the Treasury and Federal Reserve’s successful pandemic-aftermath macro management; more and better-paid workers and unemployment rates low; faster income growth in the lower tiers of the income tables; and reason for optimism about what’s coming next. The country is by no means short of problems to fix and policies that could be improved or replaced. But as the campaign season nears its end, some of the country’s largest risks come from bad ideas — trade and security isolationism, for example — or problems left untended such as long-term debt buildup. Or, put another way, from costly mistakes that voters can prevent, and from long-term challenges governments can address if they choose. In general, a pretty good record, and lots of reasons for optimism.

FURTHER READING

Data:

BEA’s GDP database.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on earnings and wages.

Census on incomes.

… and comment on wage patterns from the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers.

The National Science Foundation on research and development.

Perspectives from PPI:

Ed Gresser on the risk of the Trump campaign’s economic and political isolationism, trade and hourly-wage America, and Vice President Harris’ opportunity.

Ben Ritz and Laura Duffy with PPI’s in-depth blueprint for tax, budget, debt, and fiscal democracy.

And from government:

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the economic outlook at home and worldwide.

And CEA’s annual big-picture Economic Report of the President 2024.

World context: 

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook 2024 (October update) on global growth, pandemic recovery, risks, and more.

Using currency-basis comparisons (current 2024 dollars, so the U.S.’ figure is slightly larger than the 2023-dollar estimate above), here’s their data on the U.S. in the larger world economy of 2024:

This year’s 26.2% U.S. share of world output is up from the 25.5% share of 2020, and the 24.6% share of 2019, reflecting the relatively stronger U.S. recovery after the COVID pandemic and also relatively high dollar values vis-à-vis other currencies.  Note that this currency-basis approach, affected by foreign exchange rates, gives the U.S. an especially large GDP share, though. The alternative “purchasing-power parities” (avoiding currency-value distortions, and trying to calculate a world in which basic services cost as much in lower- and middle-income countries as in wealthier countries) makes the world economy much bigger — $187 trillion, with China, India, Latin America, ASEAN, Africa, and the Middle East all larger — while the U.S. count is identical and the EU, UK, Canada, Japan, Australia, and Korea pretty much the same.

Or, try labor force counts from the CIA’s World Factbook.