All the screaming (and some stomping) is coming to an end. Pundit upon pundit has beaten the drum of defeat for the Democratic Party. John Boehner can measure the drapes, the Tea Party’s here to stay, blah blah blah.
Don’t go sulking just yet, and you heard it here first: Democrats will hold the House. Let’s take a step back and look at the facts and races that tell the hidden story of this election.
1. Ideas Matter
To state the obvious, the Republicans haven’t offered a single concrete idea, asking voters to forget years of ill-gotten tax cuts and an ill-advised war. Do they really believe voters are ready to turn over trust to them again so quickly? They have played it safe and will take the anger vote and hope it gives them a majority. The public isn’t buying it—the Republican brand stands at just 23 percent approval
Many swing voters focus on the election over the weekend and realize that Democrats told the country what they would do two years ago and then did it—healthcare, stimulus, and financial regulation reform.
Some of these ideas might be more long-ball (e.g., healthcare) but Democrats will get more credit than you’d think for ideas and leadership. That’s why I’m betting that late-deciding voters will either break slightly to the Democrats or just stay home.
2. Campaigns matter
It might seem like every Democrat in the country is down 50 percent in the polls. The truth is that most all of these races will come down to one-to-four percent and that in the end, the actual hard work of grassroots fighting for the last vote is very much in favor of Democrats.
When I was at the DCCC in 1994, I was all too aware that Democrats lost 52 House seats by a grand total of 18,000 votes (not the overall vote but the difference in seats lost). Those votes are turned by a campaign ground game, and the Republicans don’t have a good one, thanks to the incredibly poor leadership of Michael Steele at the RNC. The DNC is pouring its all into GOTV efforts of this final stretch. When you look at the latest polls and see 10-to-12 percent undecided vote, it is most likely those voters will never show up at this point.
3. Seat by Seat
The “Pundit Consensus” is a 55-seat gain by Republicans, which would give them a 16-seat majority in the House. But if we examine those races on a case-by-case basis, the details indicate Republicans only stand to gain 35 seats, or four shy of a majority.
The top list of Democratic holds that all show up as losses currently.
Let’s start with 55 seats and work our way backwards:
New York
Three candidates on top of the ticket running 20-30 percent ahead of flawed Republican Senate candidates. Are we going to see vote splitting at the 25 percent level? That just doesn’t add up. The Republican Party in New York is in complete disarray and that will affect turnout in the closing days.
Take away at least the following pickups:
Owens -3rd party candidate getting between 5-15 percent of the vote
Murphy
Hall
Pickup now stands at 52.
Pennsylvania
Democratic well-oiled turnout machine will be prepared to do battle and hold:
Murphy
Kanjorski
Carney
Pickups now stand at 49.
New Hampshire
It’s doubtful that voters will return Charlie Bass to Congress, and marginal plus to have Paul Hodes on top of the ticket in this seat, who will bring that 1-to-2 percent extra vote out for Annie Kuster.
Pickups now stand at 48.
Georgia, Virginia and North Carolina
Marshall – he has been written off before, likely to hold with the tightening of the Governors race doing nothing but help.
Kissel won his seat by imploring serious grassroots organizing, and that still holds true for him this year. He ticked off many with his no votes on health care, but they are coming home to help him.
Nye is a strong candidate that votes his district and attracts strong crossover support.
Perriello — a strong case for getting credit for doing what’s right and standing up for your votes. Obama is coming to rally for him tonight.
Pickups now stand at 44.
Texas
Rodriguez—the demographics strongly favor a win by Ciro.
Pickups now stand at 43.
The Dakotas
Pomerory—unemployment is only at 4 percent in North Dakota, and Pomerory has a strong record of constituent service—the independent minded democrat holds on again.
Hurseth-Sandlin has voted her state and is running against a republican with flaws.
Pickups now stand at 41.
Idaho
Minnick – the Democrat-endorsed by the Tea Party, voted his district…he will hold on.
Pickups now stand at 40.
Illinois
Phil Hare, conservative district that continues to vote 55-60 percent for the democrat candidate for the House, spending is even and outside groups are almost spending more to badger the Republican.
Pickups now stand at 39.
Nevada
Dina Titus, another Dem who will get credit for standing up for her votes and showing leadership—and she does not have the negatives of Harry Reid. In the end she will hold this swing seat.
Pickups now stand at 38.
Colorado
John Salazar is strong candidate against weak Republican who received 37 percent of the vote last time he ran.
Pickups now stand at 37.
Those are the seats that the Democrats won’t lose. Now for the few they’ll actually flip:
Minnesota
Michele Bachman—she has the money and the media attention, but her actions and personality don’t fit the Midwest common sense approach of Minnesota…first upset of the night. Tarryl Clark with the big upset.
Pickups now stand at 36.
Florida
Joe Garcia has run a strong campaign against a very weak flawed-almost off the ballot- republican. Second somewhat surprise of Tuesday.
Pickups now stand at 35.
I could include other possible upsets (WA-8, CA, FL etc)
From leading on ideas, being prepared for the fight and the other side not offering any new ideas, lacking a true grassroots campaign and the voter being a lot smarter then pundits and the chatting inside the beltway give them credit for, the Democrats hold the House with a five-to-nine seat majority. You heard it here first.
