Our Work

The world is growing more ‘carbon-efficient’

• November 5, 2025
• Ed Gresser

FACT: The world is growing more ‘carbon-efficient.’

THE NUMBERS: Growth 2005 to 2024 –

WHAT THEY MEAN: 

As UN delegates head to the Amazon for next week’s “COP-30”* meeting in Belem, the “climate optimism” argument isn’t easily made. The European Union’s “Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research” (“EDGAR” for short) has the discouraging figures, updated for 2024 last month: despite lots of activism and policy, worldwide carbon dioxide emissions have grown about 30% in the last twenty years, from 30.0 billion tons in 2005 to 39.6 billion tons in 2024. Five large economies — China, the U.S., India, the EU itself, and Japan — accounted for 62% of the total last year. Their patterns since 2005 explain why emissions are up:

* Not including the UK. UK emissions were 0.56 billion tons in 2005, and 0.29 billion tons in 2024.

In sum, the big “developed” economies have cut emissions noticeably, though not drastically. But the much larger emissions growth in China, and more recently in India, has more than offset their drop. (India, in fact, had 2024’s largest jump in CO2 emissions, up by 140 million tons; Chinese emissions grew by 100 million tons, and U.S. by 14 million tons.) On a worldwide scale, the full group of “developed” economies* put about 11.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the sky last year, China 13.1 billion tons, and the rest of the world 15.2 billion tons. In sum, the a pretty gloomy overall-emissions picture, fitting well with the uncomfortable 33° C / 91° Fahrenheit Belem weather forecast for Monday’s COP-30 opening.

Viewed in another way, though, EDGAR’s figures suggest a case for long-term optimism: the world economy is steadily growing more carbon-efficient. Since 2005, emissions have grown by 32%, and primary energy use by an essentially identical 33%. (From 139 terawatt-hours to 186 terawatt-hours.) Meanwhile, actual real-world GDP has nearly doubled from $83 trillion to $173 trillion (PPP basis), or more precisely has grown 84%. Put in more relatable terms, as of 2005, every thousand dollars worth of GDP — an hour’s worth of orders in a busy American restaurant, three shiny Motorola Razr flip-phones coming off the line in Shenzhen, a Belgian train stopping to take on a hundred passengers, a refrigerator delivered to a Bombay home — produced an average of 318 tons of carbon dioxide. Now, the same activities (swapping out the Razrs for iPhone 17s) produce only 229 tons of carbon. Some country samples:

The most profligate carbon-emitters among medium-sized and large economies are Iran, at 556 tons of carbon per $1000, and South Africa, at 506 tons. China is the least carbon-efficient very large economy, but has matched the U.S. and European Union in reducing emissions relative to output.  The gap separating these countries, and even the U.S., Japan, and the EU, from the world’s most carbon-efficient economies — Sweden at 57 tons per $1000, Ireland at 52 tons, and Switzerland at 46 tons — suggests lots of possibilities for sustained or accelerated efficiency gain.

So: Actual worldwide reductions from the 2000 base have proven very difficult to achieve.  But the less ambitious goal of reduced carbon output over time may well be realistic. UN forecasters, in fact, do see emissions turning down, with renewable energy sources now providing more power to the world than coal, and world carbon emissions totals likely to drop by about 10% – that is, by 4 billion tons — by 2035. All this suggests that policy and activism are not futile; emissions can go down without drastic declines in living standards; and the Belem delegates have at least a longer-term case for optimism.

* “COP-30”: The “COP” acronym stands for “Council of Parties” to the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. “30” refers to their 30th meeting.

** Taking “traditional developed economies” to mean the U.S., Canada, the EU, the U.K., Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand.

FURTHER READING

PPI’s four principles for response to tariffs and economic isolationism:

• Defend the Constitution and oppose rule by decree;
• Connect tariff policy to growth, work, prices and family budgets, and living standards;
• Stand by America’s neighbors and allies;
• Offer a positive alternative.

Policy:

PPI’s Energy and Climate Solutions Project looks at U.S. energy policy and production, emissions and climate options, and community impacts.

Diplomacy:

The UN’s “COP30” conference.

… the UN’s updated report, with forecasts of emissions falling by 2035.

… and Brazil’s COP30 page.

Data:

The European Union’s Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), updated with 2024 figures.

U.K.-based energy researcher John Kemp compares GDP, population, energy use (renewables, coal, etc.), and emissions across countries and continents.

And the World Bank reports total GDP, worldwide and by country, over time.

ABOUT ED

Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.

Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.

Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.

Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.

Read the full email and sign up for the Trade Fact of the Week.