Basic economics tells us that when demand goes down, suppliers must reduce costs, cut supply, or lower prices to survive. That is the choice facing many U.S. colleges and universities starting in 2025, when the so-called “enrollment cliff,” begins. Between 2025 to 2029, undergraduate headcount will drop by over 575,000 students (15 percent) and, if recent history is an indicator, many schools will end up closing their doors rather than streamlining their operations.
The reason is that most institutions of higher learning are dependent on tuition revenue for survival. While a handful of elite universities (think Harvard, Stanford, Princeton) have endowments large enough to cover the cost of attendance for any student in need, the rest require undergrads to borrow on average over $30,000 to earn a bachelors.
In the past, when faced with funding shortfalls, colleges and universities attempted to “grow their way” out of the problem by opening up new sources of revenue. Many launched new graduate programs, including terminal master’s degrees (no doctoral option) and certificates. Others increased their online offerings to expand their access to part-time students beyond the gates of their campuses. And almost all opened their doors to international students who could afford to pay full price.
But unlike Purdue University—who used this new source of revenue to hold undergraduate tuition flat for a decade—most schools went on a hiring spree; one that massively expanded the ranks of all types of employees, with one notable exception—full-time faculty.
