RESEARCH SUMMARY
- The National Rally in France continues to be in pole position for the next Presidential election in 2027 – whether led by Le Pen or Jordan Bardella.
- While Le Pen is most known, Bardella has built up a reputation with voters as someone who broadens the National Rally’s appeal and has less baggage. They see him as fresh compared to Le Pen.
- Swing voters who participated in the research were leaning towards the National Rally in the absence of a strong alternative from the centre and centre-left.
- The voters were exercised about crime and the degradation of their localities, fearing criminal gangs and disrespect on the streets. They want to see a restoration of order, and their politicians focussed on a strong France – they see this as a zero sum game.
- They feel there is little to lose from switching to the National Rally, despite their misgivings on economic policy and community cohesion.
- Success for the centre/ centre left depends on offering a positive and strong alternative for these working-class voters that focusses on their priorities of local safety and patriotism / national strength.
PPI has been conducting research with voters around the world as part of its Project on Centre-Left Renewal, which aims to create a strong centre-left dialogue to fight against radical right-wing populism. Our report published in 2025, ‘Build Back Belief: how governments around the world lost trust in government and how to win it back,’ showed that centre-left parties need to win back significant numbers of the ‘working middle’ of society with examples from around the world. In June, PPI conducted focus groups of women and men in towns and cities in France, who are non-graduate swing voters currently moving from left to right. City voters were screened to have voted centre or centre left in 2026 – town voters were a mix.
