The App Economy in Thailand

When Apple introduced the iPhone in 2007, that initiated a profound and transformative new economic innovation. While central bankers and national leaders struggled with a deep financial crisis and stagnation, the fervent demand for iPhones, and the wave of smartphones that followed, was a rare force for growth.

Today, there are 5 billion mobile broadband subscriptions, an unprecedented rate of adoption for a new technology. Use of mobile data is rising at 65 percent per year, a stunning number that shows its revolutionary impact. More than just hardware, the smartphone also inaugurated a new era for software developers around the world. Apple’s opening up of the App Store in 2008, followed by Android Market (now Google Play) and other app stores, created a way for iOS and Android developers to write mobile applications that could run on smartphones anywhere.

Tax Cuts for the Companies That Deserve It: It’s not too late to put people on par with profits.

Corporate tax cuts have long been on the wish list of American businesses, which have rightly argued that both the rates and structure of the U.S. corporate tax code hurt America’s ability to compete globally. U.S. companies are now on track to see dramatic reductions in their tax rates, thanks to the $1.5 trillion tax cut package just passed by the GOP-led Congress and signed by President Donald Trump.

Trump and GOP Congressional leaders claim this relief will spur economic growth through new jobs and higher wages. As proof, they point to a series of commitments by companies such as Boeing and AT&T to provide their workers with bonuses and more worker training.

Unfortunately, it’s far more likely that shareholders, not U.S. workers, will reap the biggest benefits from the Trump tax cuts. According to Bloomberg, for example, many major corporations reportedly told investors in earnings calls this fall that they plan to “turn over most gains from proposed corporate tax cuts to their shareholders” through share buybacks or higher dividends. The Washington Post reported in December that, among America’s 20 biggest companies, just two explicitly promised to hire more workers – and no one committed to raising wages.

The App Economy in Vietnam, 2017

When Apple introduced the iPhone in 2007, that initiated a profound and transformative new economic innovation. While central bankers and national leaders struggled with a deep financial crisis and stagnation, the fervent demand for iPhones, and the wave of smartphones that followed, was a rare force for growth.

Today, there are 5 billion mobile broadband subscriptions, an unprecedented rate of adoption for a new technology. Use of mobile data is rising at 65 percent per year, a stunning number that shows its revolutionary impact.

More than just hardware, the smartphone also inaugurated a new era for software developers around the world. Apple’s opening up of the App Store in 2008, followed by Android Market (now Google Play) and other app stores, created a way for iOS and Android developers to write mobile applications that could run on smartphones anywhere.

Regulation and the Productivity Revolution in Japan’s Handset Market

The Progressive Policy Institute has long been focused on the interaction between regulation and innovation across the United States, Europe, and Asia. We are particularly concerned with the broad class of pricing of innovative products and services.

From this perspective, we note that the Japanese government, acting through the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) and the Japan Fair Trade Commission (JFTC), has required or encouraged mobile providers to reduce or eliminate their subsidies for consumer purchases of smartphone handsets. The government’s explicit goal is to persuade the providers to use the money saved from reduced subsidies to lower rates for long-term consumers.

Marshall for the NY Daily News, “How Democrats can connect with middle America again: Advice from successful rural pols from left of center”

Washington Democrats employ legions of political consultants, entrail readers and data-crunchers to help them figure out how to sway voters. They could save a lot of money by listening instead to Democrats who win elections in red and purple states.

That’s the idea behind a trenchant new report that should be required reading for national party strategists. Despite its optimistic title, “Hope for the Heartland,” the study shines a pitiless light on how badly Democrats have lost touch with rural and working-class America.

Its authors are Rep. Cheri Bustos, a rising star in Congress who represents a mostly rural district in Illinois won by Donald Trump in 2016, and Robin Johnson, an acute observer of heartland politics who hosts a radio show in Iowa on the topic.

Continue reading at NY Daily News.

Press Release: PPI Report Highlights How Policy Can Drive New, Digitally Enabled Manufacturing Growth & Economic Revitalization

Report uses Upstate New York as case study for potential economic boon from ‘Internet of Goods’

WASHINGTON —The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) today released a new report by Chief Economic Strategist Michael Mandel highlighting how the next wave of digitally-driven manufacturing – an essential part of what he calls the “Internet of Goods” – has the potential to revitalize local economies across the country under the right public policies. The report uses the conditions in Upstate New York – particularly the region from Buffalo to Rochester to Syracuse – as a real-world test bed to determine best practices for attracting and retaining Internet of Goods industries.

“Because new Internet of Goods industries incorporate real-time data and advanced analytics into their business practices, high-speed high-capacity mobile broadband is essential. … What’s needed are policies that encourage broadband companies to bring high-speed broadband networks to these areas of the country that are ideally suited for digitally-driven manufacturing companies, while not taking actions that delay or depress the build-out of these networks by making it cost prohibitive to build them.”

“With its world-class universities, access to interstate highways and shipping routes, educated workforce, and ample building space vacated by former manufacturing plants and other industries, [Upstate New York] possesses many essential qualities to forge a robust Internet of Goods economy,” Mandel writes.

Mandel argues the next generation of wireless broadband networks, usually called 5G networks, are essential infrastructure for the Internet of Goods. They provide enough bandwidth to power driverless trucks, guide drones without interruption, and support digital manufacturing. These networks will be built on millions of small cells throughout the country — in buildings or outdoors on utility poles, light poles, traffic lights, or exterior walls of buildings — and can transmit a lot of data over a short range. Thus, a robust broadband network needs to have many cells.

However, in terms of attractiveness for small cell build-out, Mandel writes, Upstate New York starts out with a handicap relative to comparable regions due to lower GDP density. On top of that, local government policies are hindering the deployment of small cells or 5G networks by imposing or considering new and prohibitive costs on the installation of the equipment needed to bring high-speed mobile broadband to the region.

“As a result, broadband companies will find alternative sites for building out their networks, jeopardizing not only the future of new industries that have located Upstate, but also closing the door to future industries and revenues they would generate,” Mandel concludes.

“Upstate New York should complement its universities, workforce, transportation and affordable land advantages by encouraging the essential high-speed, high-capacity broadband network to power future industries and create jobs.”

###

The Internet of Goods and a Revitalized Economy: Upstate New York as a Template

A revival in local manufacturing could provide a new source of jobs for areas of the country that have suffered disproportionate job losses in recent years. The key to this revitalization is integrating digital technology into every stage of the research, development, distribution and delivery of the goods produced. We call this integration the Internet of Goods and believe it is poised to revitalize physical industries such as manufacturing, agriculture and transportation.

Based on new business models, as well as new technology, digitally-driven manufacturing can provide an essential jumping-off point for growth. As we recently wrote in a policy report:

We believe that, through additive manufacturing and other new technologies, combined with the new faster local distribution networks, there is the possibility of creating new business models for manufacturing. In particular, there is the potential for the revival of small-scale manufacturing operations, relatively close to customers, making small-batch and custom goods.

Digitally-driven manufacturers won’t locate in dense urban areas where land prices are high and logistics for transporting the manufactured goods are complex, time consuming and expensive. Instead, they will gravitate to areas of the country that have sufficient, available land; have a strong base of workers comfortable with technology; and have access to a high-capacity broadband network infrastructure.

PPI Tech Job Index 2017: States

Tech and tech-enabled jobs are becoming increasingly important to many state economies–not just the tech hubs like California and Texas.  Particularly important is the role of ecommerce, which is driving the creation of hundreds of thousands of tech-enabled electronic shopping and fulfillment center jobs around the country (for example, see here).  Going forward, we expect tech-enabled manufacturing to help revive job growth in areas that were hit hit hard by the decline in factory jobs (for example, see here).

For this study, we define the  PPI Tech Job Index for a state or local area as the increase in tech and tech-enabled jobs from 2010 to 2016, as a percentage of the total number of private sector jobs in that state or local area in 2010. Thus, the PPI Tech Job Index serves as a measure of the importance of tech growth to the economy of that state.

The industries that we include, and their NAICS codes, are listed below in Table 1. These include computer and electronics manufacturing, electronic shopping, software publishing, internet publishing and search, computer systems and programming,  management and technical consulting, and the increase in warehousing jobs since 2007.  As we have shown in earlier work, this last category picks up the growth of employment in ecommerce fulfillment centers, which do not yet have their own industry.

 Table 1: Tech and tech-enabled industries
334 Computer and electronics manufacturing
4541 Electronic shopping
5112 Software publishing
51913 Internet publishing and search
5415 Computer systems design and programming
5416 Management and technical consulting
493 Warehousing (change since 2007, reflects ecommerce fulfillment)

Table 2 below shows the top states, ranked by the PPI Tech Job Index. We can see Washington at the top, propelled by Amazon’s growth. And California, not surprisingly, is in the top 5. But the top 10 also includes states such as Utah, Tennessee, and Georgia, with North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana not far behind. Utah’s high ranking is due to growth in computer systems design and programming,  and electronic shopping jobs, while Tennessee showed strong gains in  ecommerce, computer systems design and programming, and management and technical consulting. Missouri’s ranking came from gains in computer systems design and programming, while Indiana benefited from growth in ecommerce and computer systems design and programming. Massachusetts’ ranking is dragged down a bit because of the continuing decline of tech hardware jobs.

The conclusion: The economic impact of tech and tech-enabled jobs reaches across the entire country.  We will shortly be publishing a more detailed study where we look at the PPI Tech Job Index for individual counties.

 Table 2 PPI Tech Job Index: Top States
    PPI Tech Job Index* Tech jobs created, 2010-2016 (thousands)
1 Washington 3.4% 77.2
2 Utah 2.8% 26.2
3 California 2.1% 256.9
4 Tennessee 2.0% 42.2
5 South Carolina 1.9% 26.5
6 Texas 1.8% 146.7
7 Delaware 1.7% 5.7
8 Colorado 1.6% 29.0
9 Georgia 1.6% 49.0
10 North Carolina 1.6% 48.9
11 Missouri 1.5% 31.9
12 Massachusetts 1.5% 40.7
13 Indiana 1.5% 34.2
14 Oregon 1.4% 18.8
15 Minnesota 1.3% 28.3
16 Illinois 1.3% 58.9
17 Florida 1.2% 74.3
18 New York 1.2% 84.7
19 New Jersey 1.2% 38.3
20 Kentucky 1.2% 16.8
21 Virginia 1.2% 33.3
22 Pennsylvania 1.1% 53.5
23 Maryland 1.1% 21.1
24 Oklahoma 1.0% 11.8
25 Nevada 1.0% 9.7

*Change in tech and tech-related jobs from 2010 to 2016, as a percentage of total private sector jobs in 2010.

Data: BLS QCEW, PPI

Happy Holidays from PPI

It’s been a surreal political year, but PPI has much to celebrate this holiday season. Throughout 2017, we expanded our productive capacity and the scope of our political and media outreach significantly. For example, PPI organized 150 meetings with prominent elected officials; visited 10 state capitals and 10 foreign capitals, published an influential book and more than 40 original research papers, and hosted nearly 30 private salon dinners on a variety of topical issues.
Best of all, we saw PPI’s research, analysis, and innovative ideas breaking through the political static and changing the way people think about some critical issues, including how to revive U.S. economic dynamism, spread innovation and jobs to people and places left behind by economic growth, and modernize the ways we prepare young people for work and citizenship.
Let me give you some highlights:
  • This fall, David Osborne’s new book, Reinventing America’s Schools, was published on the 25th anniversary of the nation’s first charter school in Minnesota. David, who heads PPI’s Reinventing America’s Schools project, documents the emergence of a new “21st Century” model for organizing and modernizing our public school system around the principles of school autonomy, accountability, choice, and diversity. David is just winding up a remarkable 20-city book tour that drew wide attention from education, political, and civic leaders, as well as the media. Because David is a great storyteller, as well as analyst, it’s a highly readable book that offers a cogent picture of a K-12 school system geared to the demands of the knowledge economy. It makes a great holiday gift!
  • Dr. Michael Mandel’s pioneering research on e-commerce and job creation also upended conventional wisdom and caught the attention of top economic commentators. Dr. Mandel, PPI’s chief economic strategist, found that online commerce has actually created more jobs in retail than it destroys, and that these new jobs (many in fulfillment centers in outlying areas) pay considerably better than traditional ones. His research buttresses the main premise of PPI’s progressive pro-growth agenda: that spreading digital innovation to the physical economy will create new jobs and businesses, raise labor productivity, and reduce inequality.
  • PPI challenged the dubious panacea of “free college” and proposed a progressive alternative – a robust system of post-secondary learning and credentials for the roughly 70 percent of young Americans who don’t get college degrees. PPI Senior Fellow Harry Holzer developed a creative menu of ways to create more “hybrid learning” opportunities combining work-based and classroom instruction. And PPI Senior Fellow Anne Kim highlighted the inequity of current government policies that subsidize college-bound youth (e.g., Pell Grants), but provide no help for people earning credentials certifying skills that employers value.
  • Building on last year’s opening of a PPI office in Brussels, we expanded our overseas work considerably in 2017. In January, I endeavored to explain the outcome of the U.S. election to shell-shocked audiences in London, Brussels, and Berlin. In April, we led our annual Congressional senior staff delegation to Paris, Brussels, and Berlin to engage European policymakers on the French presidential election and other U.S-E.U. issues, including international taxation, competition policy, and trade. PPI also took its message of data-driven innovation and growth to Australia, Brazil, Japan and a number of other countries.
Other 2017 highlights included a strategy retreat in February with two dozen top elected leaders to explore ideas for a new, radically pragmatic agenda for progressives; a Washington conference with our longtime friend Janet Napolitano (now President of the University of California system) on how to update and preserve NAFTA; public forums in Washington on pricing carbon, infrastructure, tax reform, and other pressing issues; creative policy reports on varied subjects; and a robust output of articles, op-eds, blogs, and social media activity.
I’m also happy to report many terrific additions to PPI in 2017. Rob Keast joined to manage our external relations and new policy development; Paul Bledsoe assumed a new role as Strategic Adviser as well as guiding our work on energy and climate policy; and Emily Langhorne joined as Education Policy Analyst. We will also be adding a fiscal project next year.
All this leaves us poised for a high-impact year in 2018. In this midterm-election year, our top priority will be crafting and building support for a new progressive platform — a radically pragmatic alternative to the political tribalism throttling America’s progress. That starts with new and better ideas for solving peoples’ problems that look forward, not backward, and that speak to their hopes and aspirations, not their anger and mistrust.
It’s a tall order, and we cannot succeed without your help and support. Thanks for all you have done over past years, and we look forward to working with you in 2018.
Happy holidays and New Year!

Updated Credit Scoring and the Mortgage Market

Our past event featured newly issued white papers from respected industry experts related to the ongoing GSE credit score evaluation. Topics include: Research from a leading analytics firm on the value that updated credit scoring models will add to the mortgage market; Economic and competitive issues in the credit scoring market as detailed by an industry economist; and Legal and regulatory matters to consider as outlined by a former state banking commissioner.

 

Read the reports:

“Risks and Opportunities in Expanndinng Mortgage Credit Availability Through New Credit Scores” by Tom Parrent

Alternate Credit Scores and the Mortgage Market: Opportunities and Limitations” by Ann B. Schnare

Kim for The Hill, “Let’s tax college endowments to pay for students’ education”

In 2016, the 50 richest universities in America owned $331 billion in endowment wealth, a figure roughly three times the size of California’s entire state budget last year — and ten times the estimated net worth of President Donald Trump. Seventy-five percent of that wealth was held by less by four percent of schools, including such elite institutions as Harvard University, whose endowment was $34.5 billion in 2016), Stanford ($22.4 billion), Princeton ($22.2 billion) and Yale ($25.4 billion).

These outsized sums made college endowments a ripe target in the House GOP’s tax plan, which proposes a 1.4 percent excise tax on the nation’s largest endowments. Though only about 70 schools would be subject to the levy as currently contemplated, it would raise an estimated $3 billion over 10 years.

As a piggy bank for financing lower personal and corporate tax rates, an endowment tax is a terrible idea, and colleges are right to protest. But as a mechanism for correcting some of the current inequities in higher education, endowment reform is well worth pursuing.

Continue reading at The Hill. 

Shining a Light on Small Business Credit: Promoting a Transparent Marketplace

For many Americans, self-employment and running  a small business can be an important pathway to the middle class, yet accessing credit to start or grow a business is more difficult, and potentially even more dangerous, than most realize.

While banks have historically provided the majority of small business credit in the United States, and still do, there’s a hitch: Small business lending has high fixed costs relative to the returns banks can expect from their loans. This decline in profitability has meant a widening small business credit gap – even during an economic recovery.

Into the breach have stepped a host of companies hoping to leverage advancements in technology and the proliferation of data about small businesses to lower the cost of extending credit. As more small businesses utilize internet-based services for shipping, ordering, or record keeping; make or accept digital payments; and engage with social media, they are creating large, real-time datasets about their businesses that can be applied to credit underwriting. These developments are encouraging many new companies – or, in some cases, established companies with no history of extending credit – to begin offering small business financing products, often without the regulatory oversight and supervision applied to banks.

Marshall for The Hill, “GOP tax bill: Wrong debate at the wrong time”

As President Trump and Republicans go full throttle to ram a partisan tax bill through Congress this week, let’s step back and ask a basic question: What does the U.S. economy need most today? The answer isn’t tax cuts – it’s public investment in modern infrastructure.

Having wasted most of 2017 trying to kill ObamaCare, however, Trump and his party have accomplished next to nothing and are desperate for a political “win.” Their budget-busting tax plan is designed to solve Republicans’ political problems, not the country’s economic problems.

From an economic perspective, the Republicans are fighting the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time.  Tax cuts may make sense when the economy is slowing down and needs a jolt. But with healthy business profits, a surging stock market and tight labor markets pushing up wages, there’s little need now for a dose of fiscal stimulus.

In fact, average working families finally are beginning to reap the gains of the long economic expansion that started under President Obama. Blue collar wages have soared in the last two years, growing even faster than those for professionals and managers. Despite all the populist angst about a “rigged economy,” stronger growth is narrowing economic inequality.

Continue reading at The Hill.

Bledsoe for The Hill, “Dems should offer own plan to destroy GOP tax nightmare”

House Republicans have passed a grotesque tax giveaway to the richest 1 percent that will only exacerbate America’s biggest economic and political problem: the massive income inequality that inhibits broad-based growth and is leaving more and more Americans out of the middle class.

What’s more, the Republican tax bills squander essentially all the money needed for investments that would actually grow the economy to the benefit of all Americans; namely, rebuilding our antiquated infrastructure to be competitive in the digital economy.

Republican Senators have replicated these mistakes in legislation that has passed the tax-writing Finance Committee, adding repeal of a key element of the Affordable Care Act, to boot. They have now pledged to push the bill through the full Senate as early as this week and into an expedited conference with the House to be signed into law by Trump before Christmas.

Continue reading on The Hill.

How to Modernize and Strengthen NAFTA

If there is one thing that negotiators from the United States, Mexico and Canada agree on, it is that NAFTA should be updated and improved to the mutual benefit of the three partners. The question is how to do so. To grapple with that question, the University of California and Tecnológico de Monterrey, the largest not-for-profit private university in Mexico, in partnership with the Progressive Policy Institute and COMEXI (the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations), convened a gathering of high-level North American government and business leaders, diplomats and trade scholars at the university’s Washington, D.C. conference center on September 21, 2017. Negotiators from the U.S., Mexico and Canada convened in Washington on October 11th to resume talks on modernizing and strengthening the 1994 North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The impetus for these talks comes from

President Trump, who has fiercely criticized NAFTA and is demanding changes aimed at reducing U.S. trade deficits and “bringing back” U.S. manufacturing jobs. The Trump Administration wants to wrap up an agreement on a modified treaty by the end of the year.

That’s an ambitious timetable, considering the White House’s lengthy list of negotiating objectives — and concerns in Canada and Mexico that President Trump views trade as a zero-sum game. The unspoken question hovering over the talks is this: Can Trump find a way for America to “win” in trade without Mexico and Canada losing?

Gerwin for US News, “Trump the NAFTA Terminator”

The president is making moves to terminate NAFTA without considering the economic and legal repercussions.

Donald Trump has few positive achievements as president. But the man famous for firing people has certainly shown a knack as a terminator: Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership and terminated a variety of other Obama administration initiatives.

Now, Trump is seemingly set on terminating NAFTA, which he’s derided as “the worst trade deal ever.” Congress must stop Trump before he kills again.

Congress has been remarkably mute on Trump’s threats to NAFTA, even though the Constitution empowers Congress “to regulate Commerce with foreign Nations” and much of the president’s authority on trade is based on laws passed by Congress. It’s time for Congress to use its powers – and broader influence – to prevent Trump from damaging U.S. trade, destroying jobs and sowing economic uncertainty by recklessly withdrawing from NAFTA.

Continue reading at U.S. News.