Building a New Middle Class in the Knowledge Economy

The election of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2016 has made policymakers and politicians in the U.S. much more aware of an important demographic group – the white working class – than before.

We have ignored their plight and their concerns for far too long, and have grown much too complacent about the extent to which they have fallen behind more-educated groups and shared insufficiently in the economic growth we’ve experienced in the past few decades.

Of course, even before the election, labor market analysts and demographers had been discovering that the economic and social outcomes we observe among a large group of less-educated Americans – particularly men with high school or less education – were stagnating or deteriorating.



			

Marshall for The Daily Beast: Donald Trump and the Republicans Shotgun Marriage Is Off to a Rocky Start

Many Congressional Republicans regard Donald Trump as an interloper, so it’s not surprising that their political marriage of convenience is already showing signs of strain. They’re bickering over health care now, but the deeper source of discord is the basic incompatibility of conservatism and populism.

During the campaign, Trump echoed Republicans in caricaturing Obamacare as a “disaster” that demands immediate repeal. Yet he also distanced himself from GOP dogma by assuring working class voters that he wouldn’t take away their health coverage and let them “die in the streets.”

Continue reading at The Daily Beast.

Berg for The Hill: Why AmeriCorps is a program conservatives should love

AmeriCorps is the conservative program that conservatives love to hate.

AmeriCorps, a domestic Peace Corps, is a federally funded program that provides modest living allowances and college aid to Americans who perform significant amounts of structured community service by responding to natural disasters, boosting education, bolstering public safety, fighting poverty, improving health, helping the environment and protecting homeland security.

AmeriCorps benefits go only those who work hard. Grants are awarded mostly by states. The vast majority of its participants work in nonprofit groups (not government agencies). And the program generates hundreds of millions of private-sector matching funds.

In theory, conservatives should embrace AmeriCorps as a model of how to boost self-reliance and empower communities.

Read more on The Hill.

Reforma Tributaria y la Econom’a App: El Ejemplo de Colombia

En los Estados Unidos hemos estado, con mucha razón, obsesionados con el resultado de las elecciones presidenciales. Pero el mundo sigue girando. Por ejemplo, la semana pasada Colombia ratificó un tratado de paz histórico entre el gobierno y el movimiento rebelde. PPI tuvo el privilegio de estar en Bogotá este octubre, donde realizamos un evento sobre la Economía App, el cual fue muy difundido, y describió cómo la Economía App de Colombia ha generado más de 80.000 puestos de trabajo.

Hay que felicitar al presidente de Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos por su éxito. Al mismo tiempo, él ha presentado una importante reforma tributaria que simplifica el sistema de impuestos corporativos mientras que recauda nuevos fondos. No es sorpresa que la medida de reforma tributaria sea controversial. Por ejemplo, las franquicias de la cadena de sandwiches Subway reclaman que el incremento en los impuestos puede terminar con el negocio.

De mayor impacto, la reforma tributaria de Santos afecta directamente al sector digital de Colombia y en particular a la Economía App. Incrementaría el IVA en dispositivos (teléfonos, tablets y computadoras) del 16 al 19% – solo las tablets y las computadoras menos costosas estarían exentas del IVA. La reforma ialzaría el IVA sobre los servicios móviles de datos del 16 al 19% y agregaría un 4% adicional de impuestos al consumo (un total de 23%). Finalmente, la reforma tributaria impondría un IVA sobre todo el contenido y servicios digitales que sean provistos por proveedores de origen extranjero.

Estas medidas tributarias podrían potencialmente restringir la continuación del crecimiento de la Economía App de Colombia, la cual depende de dispositivos asequibles y el banda ancha móvil, y del acceso a apps provenientes de cualquier parte del mundo. Más aún, esto podría afectar negativamente la competitividad en el resto de la economía, ya que la Economía App es mucho más que solo entretenimiento y aplicaciones de juegos. De hecho, se desarrollan y usan aplicaciones por grandes multinacionales, bancos, compañías de medios audiovisuales, tiendas minoristas, y gobiernos.

La importancia a futuro de la Economía App va incluso más lejos. Citamos de nuestra publicación de octubre 2016, «Siguiendo la Economía App de Colombia»:

Uno de los cambios más grandes que se aproximan es el Internet de las Cosas, el cual es el uso de Internet para ayudar a controlar objetos físicos y nuestro entorno físico. Los agricultores usarán cada vez más aplicaciones que ayuden a su producción agricultural, los enfermeros y doctores usarán aplicaciones para administrar el cuidado de los pacientes, y los productores usarán aplicaciones para controlar sus fábricas.

A nivel global, los países exitosos digitalmente como Vietnam y China aplican tasas de IVA relativamente bajas a los datos y servicios móviles para estimular el uso (Vea este informe reciente sobre la inclusión digital y los impuestos sobre el sector móvil).

Finalmente, como hemos mencionado en nuestra publicación de octubre de 2016:

Si los legisladores son serios con respecto a fomentar un ecosistema dinámico para nuevas empresas y la Economía App, entonces continuar con las políticas que apoyen la Economía App será lo que ayudará a Colombia a participar en la revolución móvil global como productor más que como consumidor. Aplicar demasiadas restricciones costosas sobre la Economía App de Colombia podría desviar el crecimiento hacia otro lugares. (énfasis añadido)

Japan’s App Economy

The introduction of Apple’s iPhone in 2007 initiated a profound and transformative new economic innovation. Today, less than a decade later, there are 4 billion smartphone subscriptions globally, an unprecedented rate of adoption for a new technology. Mobile data usage is rising at 55% per year, a stunning number that shows its revolutionary impact.

More than just hardware, the smartphone also inaugurated up a new era for software developers around the world. Apple’s launch of the App Store in 2008, followed by Android Market (now Google Play) and other app stores, created a way for iOS and Android developers to write mobile applications from anywhere in the world, with the ability to sell and distribute them globally.

This paper examines the economic impact of the App Economy in Japan. We estimate that App Economy employment in Japan totaled 579,000 as of April 2016.

 


 

Weinstein for RCP: Making “Fiscal Space” for the Clinton Agenda

POLICIES FOR THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION. PART 8: FEDERAL BUDGET

This is the eighth in a series on the major policy ideas — from Left and Right — that should guide the next presidential administration’s agenda. (For the opposing view, see James C. Capretta, “Fiscal Policy After the Election.“)

Hillary Clinton’s agenda of investing in people and infrastructure is an important step to righting America’s economic ship. And, to her credit, her agenda is generally offset by proposals to close tax loopholes and tax hikes on higher income individuals. But it is very unlikely that Congress will sign on to over a trillion in new spending to be paid for solely with new taxes and a small increase in the deficit, even if Democrats somehow regain control not only of the Senate, but also the House. That’s why, if elected, Mrs. Clinton will need to embrace the moment and work to enact a comprehensive deficit reduction package (including tax and entitlement reform) that will create the “fiscal space” for her investment agenda.

Fortunately, once this election is over, the fiscal policy debate is likely to reignite and get a lot hotter, creating a window for a big budget deal that could also serve as a vehicle for her policy agenda. The continuing resolution keeping the federal government open will expire in early December, likely to be followed by another short-term extension to get the government through the Inauguration. In February, the new president will submit the administration’s annual budget for 2018. Then comes March and the expiration date for the debt-ceiling deal cut in 2015. Finally, come October 1 2017, sequestration will rear its ugly head again when the two-year budget cap increase runs out.

Continue Reading at RealClearPolicy.

CNN: The problem with Obama’s budget

The $4 trillion budget President Barack Obama sent Congress on Monday is his blueprint for reviving “middle class opportunity.” Liberals are thrilled by the redistributive thrust of the president’s budget — it would hit affluent Americans with a battery of new tax hikes, totaling $2 trillion over the next decade, and use the proceeds to finance substantial tax cuts for low and middle income families.

However, this has, of course, scandalized tax-averse congressional Republicans, who echo House Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan in denouncing the Obama budget as an exercise in “envy economics.”

Given the partisan stalemate in Washington, many pundits therefore view the White House budget as a purely political statement intended to frame the 2016 presidential debate. Next, the GOP Congress will produce a conservative alternative, and each side will spend the next two years accusing the other of waging class warfare.

Except that the federal government actually does need a budget, especially one that reinforces the economy’s gathering momentum. The one thing both parties seem to agree on is that reversing middle class stagnation is the nation’s top priority. What America needs more than anything else is a long stretch of robust economic growth, something we have not seen since the 1990s, when both the growth and unemployment rates averaged about 4 percent a year.

Continue reading at CNN.

Wall Street Journal: A Rare Bipartisan Success for Congress

PPI President Will Marshall was quoted in Wall Street Journal piece regarding the rare showing of bipartisanship by Congress in passing the recent spending bill and whether or not the public should expect more of that moving forward.

“Most Republicans agreed…that this wasn’t the right time for them to flex their new political muscles—that will come next year when they control the entire Congress,” said Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, a centrist Democratic organization. “They’d rather go home for Christmas than join Ted Cruz in a crusade to shut down the government.”

Read the piece in its entirety on Wall Street Journal.

How private investment is saving America’s infrastructure

On August 3, 2014, the first cars drove the new and much-needed Port of Miami Tunnel. The project broke ground in 2010 and was intended to ease congestion in downtown Miami.

What set this project apart from others is the way it was financed – through a so-called “public-private partnership” (P3) –  in which a consortium of private investors provide financing for projects and are repaid by a state or local government over time.

Traditionally, infrastructure projects have been largely funded by the federal government through grants to states, which in turn pass funding on to localities. Until recently, P3s have largely stayed in the background, accounting for just a small fraction of total infrastructure financing.

But projects like the Port of Miami Tunnel are likely to be more commonplace as cash-strapped governments look for other resources to replace crumbling infrastructure.

Continue reading at Republic 3.0.

Book review: Reclaiming America’s fiscal freedom

There’s a lull in Washington’s budget battles, but it won’t last. Inevitably, the fight will flare up again, because the nation’s spending and tax policies are fundamentally at odds with what it will take to restore shared prosperity in America.

For now, though, it’s a relief to be spared another mortifying spectacle of fiscal brinkmanship.  After their 2010 midterm sweep, Republicans were convinced they had won a mandate for drastic cuts in federal spending. Spurning compromise, they shut down the government and repeatedly pushed the country to the brink of default. Such reckless antics shook investor confidence in the U.S. economy, triggered a credit downgrade and made America look like a banana republic.

While tea party zealots were chiefly to blame, Democrats didn’t exactly cover themselves with glory, either. President Obama lost his gamble that Republicans would relent in their opposition to tax hikes rather than let the budget sequester gouge big holes in defense spending. And by rejecting serious entitlement reform, Congressional Democrats allowed domestic spending to bear the brunt of deficit reduction. Continue reading “Book review: Reclaiming America’s fiscal freedom”

Obama Goes Big on Infrastructure

President Obama’s new budget proposes a bold, $300-billion push to modernize the nation’s aging and inadequate transportation systems over the next four years. Here at last is a call for action on the scale we need to get the U.S. economy out of its slow growth rut and back on a high-growth path.  Two generations of federal underinvestment in public infrastructure has left much of it in disrepair, deterred private investment and limited the economy’s growth potential.

There’s only one problem: Obama’s plans to get America moving again by improving roads, ports and transit systems have been repeatedly stalled by ultra-conservatives within the GOP.  It’s bad enough that there are those in Congress who automatically oppose whatever Obama proposes.  But many far-right politicians also seem to have forgotten what they learned in Economics 101 – investment in public goods like transport, water and energy infrastructure are essential foundations for robust economic growth.

PPI’s forthcoming paper highlights new research conducted post-crisis confirming that the economic returns from infrastructure spending are enormous.  In fact, our analysis shows an emerging consensus that for every $1 spent on transportation infrastructure, the increase in economic growth is between $1.5 and $2.

The United States faces an enormous deficit in transportation investment – almost $900 billion by 2020 by some accounts. Yet there’s no doubt that modern transport systems are essential to our nation’s competitiveness – to facilitate U.S. international trade, regional commerce, and local access to essential services. Not having access to fast and reliable public transit services could disproportionately affect the low-income and inner city populations relying most on fast and affordable public transit to get to work.

So we applaud President Obama’s proposal, and hope that Congress will finally start investing in America too.

Restoring Regular Order

The Murray-Ryan deal sailed through the House yesterday, raising hopes that Washington may be returning, however fitfully, to “regular order” when it comes to the federal budget.

At a time when fiscal brinksmanship and 11th hour continuing resolutions have become the new normal, it is easy to forget the years prior when passing an annual budget was something that lawmakers were eager to undertake. They looked forward to their budget debates and hearings, as these events allowed them not only to engage in their oversight duty, but also to perform their theater. These were their stages to affect policy and gain public recognition.

What would it mean to restore regular order on budgeting? Although Congress has the ultimate responsibility for passing a budget, the process actually begins in the executive branch. The first step is for the President to submit his budget early next year.

For decades, federal agencies have submitted initial budget requests to the Office of Management & Budget (OMB) for review in the early fall. Budgetary decisions are then made by the OMB Director and are passed back to the agencies. The agencies may appeal these decisions, but have a short window of time to do so. This process is presumably happening right now. Continue reading “Restoring Regular Order”

Ungrand Bargain

For years, fiscal hawks have been urging elected officials to “go big” on debt reduction.  But as yesterday’s House vote on the Murray-Ryan budget showed, budget minimalism is the art of the possible in today’s Washington.

It’s an exceedingly modest agreement that temporarily repairs some of the damage done by the Budget Control Act of 2011. Nonetheless, the Senate ought to pass the two-year budget too, because it would accomplish three important things:

First, it would prevent another government shutdown in January. With the recovery finally gaining steam, it’s essential that Washington refrain from the kind of fiscal brinksmanship that has repeatedly torpedoed economic confidence. Yet the GOP could yet force a fiscal crisis over raising the debt ceiling, which has to be done again early next year.

Second, the agreement blunts the impact of the sequester, at least for the next two years. The deal would replace about half of the sequester’s cuts to domestic and defense spending in 2014 with savings elsewhere in the budget. And because those offsets take effect in future years, the deal also would reduce fiscal drag on the economy. Still, it’s just a temporary fix, and in any fiscal reform worthy of the name, the sequester must go.

Third, the deal could signal a “return to normalcy” in budget politics. In a rare moment of bipartisan accord, it passed the House with roughly equal numbers of GOP and Democratic votes. And for once, House Speaker John Boehner forthrightly criticized the Tea Party bitter enders and right-wing pressure groups who oppose on principle even tiny compromises with Democrats on fiscal matters.

The Murray-Ryan agreement has one really egregious flaw: It failed to extend unemployment benefits for 1.3 workers stuck in long spells of unemployment. Senate Democrats say they will try to rectify that Grinch-like omission next year.

All in all, however, the deal strikes a small blow for fiscal sanity and against the extremists who have held sway over Republicans since the 2010 election.

Democrats Must Avoid Republican Economic Anarchism

Economic calamity begets radical politics. America’s worst financial panic and recession since the 1930s gave birth to the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movements. Now Occupy seems to be fizzling out, but in Week 2 of a government shutdown, it is looking more likely that Tea Party Republicans could plunge the nation gratuitously into a new economic emergency.

The GOP’s surrender to fiscal anarchism is bad for the country. But it does give President Obama and his party an opportunity to seize the high ground on jobs and economic growth — the issue uppermost in Americans’ minds. For that to happen, however, Democrats will need to abandon their ritual business-bashing, embrace the productive forces in U.S. society and honor companies that are investing in America’s future.

Why? Because the nation’s job drought is really an investment drought. With gridlock in Washington and financial troubles at the state and local level, real government spending on productive assets from highways and bridges to computer equipment is down by half compared with the average level of the 2000s.

Private sector investment is doing better but still falls well short of what the country needs to generate “breadwinner” jobs and raise middle-class wages. Although corporate profits have rebounded lustily, many companies are still hoarding cash — about $2 trillion worth — or spending it on stock buy-backs. U.S. business investment, outside of housing, is still 20% below its long-term trend.

Continue reading at USA Today.

Why Boehner’s to Blame

The government of the United States of America is closed for business today, courtesy of the Republican Party. It’s a national embarrassment, like a scene from the Marx Brothers’ classic 1933 satire “Duck Soup,” only without the anarchic humor.

Hail Freedonia!

Who produced today’s farce? Was it the Tea Party hotheads, 50 or so House Republicans who love ideological combat but hate governing? Or was it Sen. Ted Cruz, perhaps the most cunning demagogue America has produced since Joe McCarthy?

All played their discreditable parts. But the man in the director’s chair is John Boehner, who is bidding for the title of worst House speaker in U.S. history.

Why Boehner? Because he knows better, and could have prevented the shut-down. And because, as America’s third-ranking constitutional officer, after the President and vice president, he is supposed to serve America’s interests — not the febrile demands of his party’s most rabid partisans. That’s Eric Cantor’s job.
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Read the entire piece at the New York Daily News.

America’s job crisis: What entrepreneurs say

The worst economic downturn since the Depression is behind us, but the great American job machine keeps sputtering. Four years into “recovery,” too many Americans are still unemployed, underemployed, on disability or out of the workforce altogether.

What are U.S. political leaders doing about the nation’s jobs emergency? Next to nothing.  Instead, House Republicans have plunged Washington into another senseless round of fiscal brinksmanship, jeopardizing economic recovery in their Ahab-style quest to destroy the great white whale of Obamacare.

Imagine, instead, that we had a functioning political system. What could Congress and the White House do to goose the pace of job creation?

Instead of turning to the usual (partisan) experts and Beltway interest groups for answers, why not put that question directly to U.S. job creators themselves? That inspired suggestion comes from John Dearie of the Financial Services Roundtable and Courtney Geduldig of Standard & Poor, who hit the road two years ago to do exactly that.

They present the findings of this unique survey in a new book, Where the Jobs Are: Entrepreneurship and the Soul of the American Economy.  It’s based on the authors’ intensive conversations with over 200 entrepreneurs who attended roundtables in 12 cities. What results is a concrete and practical blueprint for policy changes that can help entrepreneurs launch new businesses, expand existing ones and create the good “breadwinner” jobs that can support middle class families.

There are no blinding revelations here; most of their prescriptions are familiar to Washington policy hounds like me. But this only underscores that job creation isn’t some arcane branch of economics that only Nobel laureates can fathom. U.S. policymakers mostly know what to do – which makes their failure to act all the more tragic.

Continue reading at The Hill.