Jacoby for Forbes: Ukrainians Wait For Trump To Transform The War, For Better Or Worse

With Donald Trump’s reelection roiling capitals across Europe and Asia, in Ukraine, where many expect the new administration to make the most dramatic changes to U.S. policy, the mood is mixed, at once anxious and surprisingly hopeful.

“No one is committing suicide,” Anton Grushetskyi, executive director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, a leading polling firm, told me in an interview. “For Ukrainians, this is an existential war. Russia wants to eliminate us and destroy our country, and we can’t just give up.” But as the fighting grinds on, with no victory in sight, many are considering a different approach.

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan,” presented to Trump earlier this fall, includes several planks designed to appeal to what is expected to be the new administration’s transactional approach to foreign policy. And many voices, on social media and in parliament, are emphasizing what Kyiv should do in the months ahead to strengthen its hand in anticipation of a Trump presidency.

Keep reading in Forbes.

Jacoby Interview for New Eastern Europe: It May Become a Lonely Fight for Ukraine

Interview with Tamar Jacoby, American reporter and the Kyiv-based director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s New Ukraine Project. Interviewer: Iwona Reichardt.

IWONA REICHARDT: You have just returned from the United States, where you were observing the final stages of the presidential campaign. Then you came back to Europe, specifically to Ukraine where you spent election night when the results came in. Were you surprised by the news that Donald Trump won?

TAMAR JACOBY: I was – it was a punch in the gut. But I shouldn’t have been surprised. Now that I look at the results, I think we all should have seen it coming. We told ourselves it was 50-50, but it wasn’t 50-50. Trump won by a significant margin. I don’t blame the polling – I don’t think that’s the main problem. I think that people just didn’t want to see a Trump victory coming. I certainly didn’t want to see it. Now we need to accept that Americans have embraced Donald Trump.

It’s hard to understand why exactly. Is it that voters don’t believe he’ll do all the crazy things he says he will do? Or is it that they really just don’t like the direction that Democrats were taking the country? Why this wholehearted embrace? I’m still struggling to understand it. But clearly Americans have embraced Trump, and we are going to have to accept the choice and live with it for four years.

Keep reading in New Eastern Europe.

Jacoby for Washington Monthly: The “Russian World” and Donald Trump

Why did Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine? After more than 300 years in the Russian sphere of influence, first as a de facto colony and then an integral part of the Soviet Union—its breadbasket and industrial heartland—Ukraine wants out. It wants to leave the Russian orbit for the West, fully embrace Western capitalism and democracy, and join Western alliances—NATO and the European Union—as soon as possible.

Nearby Georgia and Moldova are also chaffing against a long history of Russian subjugation. Like Ukraine, both are former socialist republics on the underbelly of the Russian colossus and until recently, both have been advancing toward EU membership. Popular opinion in both countries strongly favors joining the West. And it’s no accident that Putin and his proxies have done everything possible to block and skew their recent democratic elections.

In Moldova, where pre-election polls showed nearly two-thirds of voters in favor of EU membership, a network of Kremlin surrogates, including criminal groups and a pro-Russian oligarch, poured money into the country to interfere with electoral procedures and bribe voters. An estimated $100 million of walking-around cash goes a long way in a nation of just 3 million, and the upshot was a virtual tie in the nationwide referendum on joining the EU: 50.4 percent for joining to 49.6 percent against—hardly the decisive outpouring Moldovan president Maia Sandu was hoping for.

Keep reading in Washington Monthly.

Jacoby for Washington Monthly: A Millennium of Conflict

An argumentative edge is a risky thing, especially in a book of history, even popular history. We want authors to have views—to see their material in a fresh light, to tell us what’s important, and to impose a frame on the raw facts that deepens our understanding of the past. Some readers even seek out history told from a particular point of view—Marxist history, for example, or postmodern history. But it’s easy for a historian to go too far, for a point of view to start to feel like a tendentious slant. Readers looking for truth quickly come to mistrust a writer who they feel has an ax to grind—especially when the case being made is an argument about genocide.

Eugene Finkel, now a professor of international affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, was born in Lviv, in western Ukraine, into a Jewish family deeply scarred by the Holocaust. As he tells us in his new book, Intent to Destroy, his grandfather Lev Finkel returned home from fighting in World War II to find that his extended family—parents, sisters, brothers-in-law, nieces and nephews—had perished. Eugene, born in 1977, went on to become a scholar of the Shoah, studying first in Israel, then the U.S. In 2017, he produced a well-received scholarly book, Ordinary Jews: Choice and Survival During the Holocaust. Clearly, he knows a great deal about genocide and has some authority to make a case about the violence being perpetrated by Russia in Ukraine.

What he doesn’t seem to grasp is just how overused and muddy the word genocide has become, and how it might undermine rather than strengthen his case about Russia’s brutal aggression against Ukraine.

Keep reading in Washington Monthly.

Ainsley in CNN: The Kamala Harris playbook has already worked in Britain. But the ‘Special Relationship’ is getting more complicated

The official line from Starmer’s government is unwavering: London will work constructively with whoever wins the presidential contest.

But sources see similarities between Starmer and Harris’ backgrounds, ideologies and paths to power – and several of Starmer’s allies are hoping the strategy that worked for him will help Harris too.

“There are some really striking parallels,” Claire Ainsley, Starmer’s former executive director of policy, told CNN. “The voters that Harris needs to persuade and motivate are very similar to the description of the voters that Labour needed to persuade and motivate.”

Ainsley, who now heads the Project on Center-Left Renewal at the Progressive Policy Institute think tank, presented findings from Labour’s electoral victory to senior Democratic strategists and pollsters in Washington DC last month.

Her trip was part of a wider sharing of information between the two camps that is longstanding – and cuts both ways – but which is irking former President Donald Trump in the final stretches of the campaign. Trump launched an extraordinary spat with Labour on Wednesday, claiming through a lawyer they had been interfering in the election.

Read more in CNN.

Talk Eastern Europe Podcast: Ukraine at a Critical Point

In this episode of the Talk Eastern Europe Podcast, Adam sits down with Tamar Jacoby, an American reporter and the Kyiv-based director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s New Ukraine Project. They discuss the current moods in Ukraine, the upcoming US election and its impact on Ukraine and how the West can help right now.

Read Tamar’s reporting on the Ukrainian drone industry.

Jacoby for The Bulwark: War-Weary Electorate Leaves Harris Little Room to Maneuver on Ukraine

Presidential elections are rarely decided on foreign policy, and this year will be no exception. But poll after poll shows a deepening, bipartisan fatigue with foreign entanglements.

The question we face, as important as who will be the next president, is will America slide into isolationism and a disastrous retreat from world affairs?

A new survey by the Wall Street Journal placed that fatigue in stark relief. It asked voters in seven battleground states which presidential candidate they thought was best equipped to guide American foreign policy—specifically, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The result was stunning. Trump leads by a mile: 50 percent to 39 percent on who is best able to handle the war in Ukraine and 48 percent to 33 percent on managing the contest between Israel and Hamas. Also striking, on this issue, the former president enjoys a wide lead among independent voters and even garners significant support among Democrats.

Keep reading in The Bulwark.

Ainsley in BBC: PM says he’s faced ‘choppy days’ since getting the job

“When I look at what it was I wanted to achieve in the first 100 days and ask myself, have we done what I wanted us to do, what I planned for us to do, the answer is yes.”

Claire Ainsley, chair of the Building Back Britain Commission and a former director of policy to Starmer, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that it was “daft to deny” the government had seen choppy moments.

But she argued that “some of the big judgement calls I think they have got right” – pointing to Starmer’s international diplomacy efforts and “honest” assessment of the state of the public finances.

Read more in BBC.

Juul for The Hill: The US should get out of the way and let Ukraine hit back

The Biden administration’s steadfast support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression has been laudable. But an inordinate and unwarranted fear of “escalation management” has hamstrung American policy.

Administration officials agonize over whether supplying certain weapons to Ukraine will be seen by the Kremlin as somehow escalatory. As a result, the provision of crucial military hardware like tanks, long-range rockets and fighter jets has been held back — only to eventually be provided without much more than grumbling from Moscow.

Even then, however, the administration persists in setting too many constraints on when and where Kyiv can use U.S. weapons for fear of antagonizing Vladimir Putin.

Keep reading in The Hill.

Winning Working Britain: Work and the Economy

Introduction

On 4th July 2024, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party achieved a landslide victory at the UK General Election, winning 411 out of 650 parliamentary seats in towns, cities, suburbs across England, Scotland and Wales.

Labour reversed its historic decline amongst working-class voters, as a result of a specific strategy to reconnect the party with voters that had formed a critical part of their founding electoral coalition. This matters not just for its symbolism, but because there is simply no route to a parliamentary majority in British politics without winning significant numbers of working-class voters. It also matters because it shows to center-left parties around the world that it is possible to win over lost working-class voters, a crucial part of the winning electoral coalition.

However a sizable portion of working-class voters in particular opted for new party Reform UK, and underneath Labour’s considerable achievement is a recognition that many voters feel sceptical that any party can really deliver for them. As Labour moves from campaigning to governing, they will need to be just as focussed on winning over working-class voters as they were in opposition.

Using data collected in the run up to the UK General Election, this new PPI report outlines the priorities of Britain’s working-class voters on the area that matters most to them: work and the economy. It builds on the foundational report on the global center-left, PPI’s ‘Roadmap to Hope’ published in October 2023. The reports are the UK companion to PPI’s Campaign for Working Americans, which aims to refocus the Democrats on regaining the allegiance of working Americans by championing their economic aspirations and moral outlook.

Our aim is to help catalyse a dynamic, modern center-left that can win the support of workingclass voters by providing better answers than the political right to the challenges they face. We are willing UK Labour to succeed in government, and the Democrats to succeed in their campaign to retain the Presidency. The opportunity facing the centre-left is to be the dynamic force that brings back hope to working class voters, so that they face the future with optimism about the prospects for themselves and the next generation.

In ‘Roadmap to Hope’, PPI research found that working-class voters felt the deal whereby if you worked hard you can get on in life had broken down. We argue that the centre-left cannot win and sustain power purely by being the beneficiaries of disenchantment with the political right, but by building a programme that addresses people’s security and prospects for the future.

PPI outlined a set of practical ideas to re-make the deal for working people with the following goals:

1. Relentless focus on raising wages for those on low to middle incomes
2. Stabilise supply and costs of essential goods and services
3. Open up housing investment to the next generation
4. Reform school education to become the driver of progress
5. Replace ‘one rule for them’ with ‘same rules apply’, including on immigration.

This report focusses on the experience and wants of working-class voters on work, costs and the economy, and the political and policy solutions to form the winning centre-left agenda.

Read the full report.

Jacoby for NYP: AI is reshaping drone warfare in Ukraine

By Tamar Jacoby

It looked like an ordinary, modest house on the outskirts of Sloviansk, a small city just behind the front line in eastern Ukraine. But the parlor’s heavy furniture had been replaced by folding tables and six big flat-screen TVs. Five men in fatigues monitored the images flashing across the screens: direct feeds from some three dozen first-person-view (FPV) drones hovering above the front line just 15 miles away.

There were no fighters in the images and no weapons or military vehicles. Both Russians and Ukrainians have learned to keep all that hidden from the drones constantly swarming overhead. But the invaders could still advance at any moment, and the soldiers in the command center — members of a new unit called “Heavenly Punishment” — scoured the video feeds, zooming in and out on tree lines and scattered rocks that might disguise foxholes.

A sixth screen integrated the information from the feeds: a giant animated map showing both sides’ positions and assets — a Russian tank here, a Russian surveillance drone loitering there. No one spoke as the men watched and probed, waiting for the opportunity to order a strike, either by an attack drone or one of the unit’s few remaining artillery cannons.

Keep reading in New York Post.

Jacoby for Bulwark: Ukraine Isn’t Ready for Pro-Putin GOP

By Tamar Jacoby

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a couple of unforced errors in the last few weeks. They were all small things, the kind of missteps we all make occasionally, and even on the world stage, they might have gone unnoticed. But the Ukrainian leader had no idea what he was up against—a Republican party determined to turn him and the global conflict in Ukraine into this cycle’s political football.

Zelensky and his team had been working for months to cultivate Donald Trump and his entourage. It wasn’t just, as Zelensky said in the letter he sent to Trump on Thursday, that he had always tried to show “respect” for the former president. Like other governments across Europe, the Ukrainians were well aware that Trump had at least an even chance of retaking the White House, and they were determined to establish a relationship. Some even hoped that Trump could be a friend—that unlike Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who have given Kyiv just enough help to hold off the Russian army but not enough to win, Trump might be more decisive, forcing a definitive outcome that might benefit Ukraine.

Kyiv worked tirelessly to forge ties to anyone who might have Trump’s ear—former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Sen. Lindsey Graham, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and others. Zelensky held his tongue no matter what Trump said about Ukraine or what foolish boasts he made about ending the war in 24 hours. The Ukrainian leader even called Trump after the first assassination attempt, and the two had what Trump reported was a “very good” conversation.

Keep reading in The Bulwark.

Ainsley in The Times: Kamala Harris told to woo ‘hero voters’ by Starmer’s strategist

There is a very strong sense among these voters that the American middle class is in decline, she added. “They feel that the deal of middle-class aspiration is over, and almost a sense of betrayal by the political classes.”

Mattinson carried out her research alongside Starmer’s former director of policy, Claire Ainsley, who now works for the US-based Progressive Policy Institute.

Ainsley, who went with Mattinson to Wilmington, added: “Hero voters told us they want stability. They don’t want the chaos of Trump particularly, but they do want to know what is the change that [Harris] is going to bring about for them.

“The research also confirmed the centre-left can’t duck immigration,” she added. “This is also a really big priority for people. So a signature policy on immigration that she could speak to, perhaps around border control, would be important.”

Mattinson and Ainsley’s work is the latest example of ever closer co-operation between the Labour Party and the Democrats. Other key party figures have also flown over recently to share knowledge with Harris aides, such as Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s head of political strategy in No 10, and the former shadow cabinet minister Jonathan Ashworth.

Read more in The Times.

Ainsley in The Washington Post: U.K. Labour strategists advise Harris on winning from the center left

“British pollster Deborah Mattinson, a former top adviser to Starmer, and Claire Ainsley, Starmer’s former director of policy, jointly briefed Harris campaign staffers this past week on a target demographic they call “hero voters.

In Britain, Ainsley told The Washington Post, these tended to be voters who had traditionally backed Labour but who had supported the 2016 Brexit referendum and the “Get Brexit Done” election campaign of Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party in 2019.

They were struggling with daily living costs and wanted change. “They felt like hope for a better life was getting out of reach,” said Ainsley, who now works with the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) think tank in Washington.”

Keep reading in The Washington Post.

Marshall for The Hill: Protesters, media must stop normalizing terrorism

By Will Marshall

The U.S. Justice Department disclosed last week that it had charged six Hamas leaders with terrorism in February for organizing the Oct. 7 massacre of approximately 1,200 people in Israel — including more than 40 U.S. citizens.

Although none of those charged are likely to ever appear in a U.S. courtroom — three have since been killed and Israeli forces are hunting down the rest — the unsealed indictments are a crucial expression of American solidarity with terrorism victims everywhere.

Attorney General Merrick Garland drove home the horror of the Oct. 7 bloodbath in a statement justifying the charges: “During the attack, Hamas terrorists murdered civilians who tried to flee, and those who sought refuge in bomb shelters,” he said. “They murdered entire families. They murdered the elderly, and they murdered young children. They weaponized sexual violence against women.”

Hamas also seized about 240 hostages and recently killed six more of them to pressure Israel to stop the fighting and leave Gaza.

Keep reading in The Hill.