Populism Watch: 4 Things To Watch as the New Italian Government Moves Forward

In Italy, the first populist government in Western Europe was sworn in on June 1st. The win was secured by a coalition between the right-wing League and the eurosceptic 5Star Movement. Below, four things to follow in the coming months:

  1. How long can the coalition hold?

Amid divisions (the League is a right-wing party with a northern background, 5Star is an ideological mixed bag with southern roots) the two parties succeeded in holding together through the election. Their divides, such as differences of opinion on combating economic decline (the League has proposed precipitous tax cuts, while Five Star has supported funds for the unemployed) did not break the coalition. Yet support for the League has grown from 17 to 25 percent since March, while support for 5Star has plateaued at 32 percent. Of additional concern is Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. Conte is a former academic, whose only government experience has been a stint on the government administrative justice council. What this means for the future of the coalition is yet to be seen. Italy has had over 60 governments since becoming a republic in 1946.

  1. The Impact of the Coalition on Stocks, the Euro, and Italian Public Debt

The coalition has put forth a 58-page agreement outlining its agenda. The plan could cost as much as €125 billion, a far greater sum than the €500 million the coalition has budgeted for it, according to a report by the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan. The plan includes a guaranteed income of €780 a month and a near-flat tax policy. Of additional concern is the coalition’s unpredictable impact on stocks, shaky support of the euro, and willingness to reduce public debt. The advancement, stagnation or decline of the Italian economy under the new government may impact future support for the coalition.

  1. Impact on New Arrivals

The future for migrants, immigrants, and asylum seekers within Italy is uncertain. Interior Minister Salvini has taken a harsh stance, saying “the good times for illegals are over – get ready to pack your bags.” Salvini has pledged to deport up to 500,000 immigrants without papers. Tensions between Italy’s native population and immigrants, particularly migrants, has risen steadily. The fatal shooting of Malian-born legal resident Soumaila Sacko, a trade unionist who protested working conditions for migrants, has done nothing to ease tensions.

  1. Impact on International Relations

Conte has explored lifting the sanctions placed on Russia following the crisis in Ukraine. NATO opposes the idea. In a speech to parliament on June 5th, Conte has pledged to both “reaffirm our convinced membership of NATO” and “support opening up to Russia” including reviewing the sanctions that “risk humiliating Russian civil society.” In response, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said “I think the economic sanctions are important because they send a clear message that what Russia has done in Ukraine has to have consequences.”

These economic, immigration, and foreign affairs concerns will impact both the longevity of the coalition, and the future of Italy, the EU, and international relations as a whole.

Populism Watch: Europe, Populism and the Model of Macron

Change is afoot in Europe. On the same day last week, Spain ousted the populist Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in favor of the socialist Pedro Sánchez, while Italy welcomed the first populist government in Western Europe. In the coming months, PPI will track the tides of populism across Europe in real-time and provide updates on this blog.

One key country resisting populist forces is France. In electing Emmanuel Macron president, French voters rebuffed both the far-right populist Marine le Pen and the ultra-left demagogue Jean-Luc Melenchon. The key, argues Progressive Policy Institute President Will Marshall, lay in Macron’s ability to tap into the voters’ mood for radical change without embracing the populists’ reactionary demands. Instead, Macron derived his agenda from the pragmatic elements of both the Socialists and the center-right Republicans. Second, Macron’s economic agenda focused on reducing stagnation by simultaneously shielding individuals against market fluctuations while liberalizing France’s economy. Third, Macron forged consensus among progressives and traditionalists by fusing a hopeful and forward-thinking narrative with classic ideas rooted in the spirit of the European Enlightenment.

Following in Macron’s footsteps, the task ahead for progressives is to channel the insurgent mood in both America and Europe in more constructive directions. That means speaking to voters’ common hopes and aspirations, not the animosities that divide them.

Bledsoe for The Hill, “Keeping Pruitt could cost GOP Congress, Trump in the fall”

Despite repeated and flagrant abuses of taxpayer trust and sweetheart deals from energy lobbyists, any of which would have doomed previous cabinet members, embattled Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Scott Pruitt appears to still have the support of President Trump, even though White House aides are urging he be fired.

The president’s theory seems to be that Pruitt’s mission to dismantle environmental protections at EPA and investigations of him will fire up the right-wing base turnout in November.

This sounds like wishful thinking. It’s far more likely that headlines about Pruitt’s taxpayer abuses right up to election day will help mobilize college-educated suburban swing voters disgusted by the Trump’s administration’s ethical corruption and rejection of science in favor of polluters.

Leading pollsters say these are just the voters Republicans need to keep Congress. Losing them could be just enough to bring about a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives, creating potentially inescapable entanglements for president himself.

Continue reading at The Hill.

Marshall for New York Daily News, “Trump’s petulant Iran deal pullout: He has no clue what comes next”

President Trump seems determined to keep his dumbest 2016 campaign promises. First, he pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is designed to create a strong economic counterweight to China.

Then, he pulled us out of the Paris climate accord, essentially signaling that the United States will not cooperate with the rest of the world to combat global warming. Now, he’s made good on his threat to pull the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal — like the other two deals, painstakingly negotiated by President Obama.

Trump’s actions constitute not only a repudiation of America’s international leadership role, but of international cooperation itself. Instead, United States seems to be adopting a strategically clueless policy of belligerent unilateralism.

Continue reading at the New York Daily News.

Marshall for POLITICO, “How Emmanuel Macron Became the New Leader of the Free World”

In addition to being Trump’s ideological opposite, the French president is a beacon for progressives hoping to find their way back to the halls of power across the democratic world.

Europe’s most dynamic political leader, Emmanuel Macron, pays a state visit to Washington this week. The French president has struck up a surprisingly cordial relationship with President Donald Trump, especially when you consider that Macron has emerged as the West’s most formidable opponent of the kind of populist nationalism Trump channels here.

Speaking last week to the European Parliament, Macron warned of a “European civil war” and urged the European Union to defend liberal democracy against a surging tide of illiberal nationalism. “Faced with the authoritarianism that surrounds us everywhere, the answer is not authoritarian democracy, but the authority of democracy,” he declared.

The JFK-style antithesis was a reminder that U.S. presidents used to give stirring speeches like this in Europe. But that’s not happening today because Trump identifies more with the other side—with right-wing nativists and neo-nationalists who want to keep immigrants out; raise barriers to global commerce; weaken or leave the EU to protect “national sovereignty;” and, especially in Eastern European countries like Hungary and Poland, undermine internal checks on strongman rule.

In effect, Macron has stepped audaciously into the vacuum created by Trump’s abdication of America’s historic role as keeper of the liberal democratic flame. Although some have anointed Germany’s Angela Merkel the new “leader of the free world,” she’s been preoccupied with shoring up a weak coalition government and stanching defections from her conservative base to the far-right Alternative for Germany party.

In addition to being Trump’s ideological opposite, Macron can be viewed as something of a beacon for progressives hoping to find their way back to the halls of power across the democratic world. As a progressive, young outsider who rode a wave of voter revolt against the governing establishment, Macron managed to capture the populist’s insurgent spirit without embracing their reactionary demands. That, in a nutshell, is the task facing other progressive parties as they struggle to expand their popular appeal.

Continue reading at POLITICO.

Bledsoe for USA Today, “Democrats must embrace shale gas boom to win elections and climate battle”

Democrats don’t have enough power to shape climate change policy. They can win the midterm elections if they embrace the shale oil and gas boom and their role in it.

Millions of Americans are rightly urging immediate, serious action to address climate change on this Earth Day weekend. Democratic candidates should carry a winning version of this message right into the midterm elections: They must denounce the climate nihilism of the Trump administration, and highlight the stunning clean energy revolution Democratic policies have done much to create.

But these candidates should be smart about how they respond to climate change provocations from President Trump, Environmental Protection Agency administrator Scott Pruitt and others. In the swing states and districts they need to win back Congress, Democrats must also vocally support the shale natural gas boom that has been overwhelmingly good for American consumers, workers and the climate.

When voters are presented with an agenda that emphasizes a transitional role for domestic gas and oil along with renewable energy as part of climate protection, they will support Democrats over Trump’s climate denial and coal-dust memories.

Continue reading at USA Today.

Yarrow for the Baltimore Sun, “Americans are losing faith in god, politicians and even science”

It’s not surprising that at a time when it’s hard to trust Facebook, the president and Congress that truths we once found self-evident have given way to disbelief. Many Americans have discarded once taken-for-granted beliefs in democracy, science, God, hard work, reputable information, patriotism, marriage and good manners. Some of these currents cross class, age and party lines, although they are especially common among younger Americans, the less educated and those on the political extremes.

Let’s be clear: This is not disagreement (“you’re wrong”); it is disbelief (“it’s not true”). Today’s Age of Disbelief is not unique to the United States, but it is particularly troubling in a nation long characterized by its Lockean optimism, belief in reason and faith in institutions.

What are the contours and dimensions of this disbelief? Who are the disbelievers and where did their disbelief come from? What does it mean for American society and politics? And what can be done about it?

Continue Reading at the Baltimore Sun.

From Illinois to Pennsylvania: A Moderate Winning Streak

Is moderate Democrat turnout in recent special elections an indicator of what’s to come?

It was down to the wire, but Rep. Dan Lipinski’s victory over a left-wing challenger in Illinois’ primary election this week keeps alive a moderate Democrat winning streak. Lipinski, who represents Illinois’s 3rd Congressional District, narrowly edged out challenger Marie Newman by 2.4 percent of the vote. Newman enjoyed the backing of Washington pressure groups incensed by Lipinski’s deviations from progressive orthodoxy – he is personally opposed to abortion and voted against the Affordable Care Act. She also was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, who carried the district by 9 points against Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic primary. Nonetheless, Democratic primary voters stuck with Lipinski.

Coming on the heels of wins by Conor Lamb and Doug Jones in a district and a state that Donald Trump won handily in 2016, Lipinski’s success completes a moderate Democratic trifecta. In Pennsylvania’s 18th District, which Mitt Romney won by 17 points and Trump by 20 points, Lamb had to attract Republican-leaning voters to win. While toeing the party line on health care, entitlement reform and unions, the ex-Marine also took independent stands on guns, immigration and abortion issues and expressed his willingness to work across party lines in Congress. That combination proved attractive to moderate and swing voters who put him over the top. Also impressive was Doug Jones’ U.S. Senate victory in deep-crimson Alabama. Exit polls from the special election to fill Jeff Sessions’ (R) vacant senatorial seat showed that Jones won moderate voters by a stunning 47 points. Of course, Jones had the good fortune to run against accused pedophile Roy Moore, but his tempered positions on gun rights and abortion helped him become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Alabama since 1992.

The lesson from these elections, of course, isn’t that moderate Democrats always do better than liberals. The main takeaway is that the party’s candidates must be well-matched, politically and culturally, to the districts and states they seek to represent.

Being a good candidate isn’t simply a matter of checking ideological boxes or filling out interest group questionnaires. There can be no “one-size-fits” all electoral strategy for winning in every region of a country as big and diverse as ours. In Illinois, Newman charged that Lipinski is not a “true Democrat” because of his views on abortion and same-sex marriage. Democratic primary voters thought otherwise. And that should give pause to the progressive purity police.

International Women’s Day: #TBT Elect More Women to End Gridlock

Happy International Women’s Day! Around the world, people are celebrating the power, value, and achievement of women, while bringing attention to many gender based inequalities that continue to pervade society today. In honor of this day, we revisit a 2012 op-ed from PPI Director of Domestic & Social Policy Anne Kim, “Elect More Women to End Gridlock.”

In her piece for The Hill, Kim argues that many female politicians are more likely to approach policy in a bipartisan manner than are their male colleagues from the same state. Kim backs up this point with studies suggesting that women tend more toward personality traits of “agreeableness” and cooperation on average than do men.

In spite of this valuable bipartisanship in public policy discussions, women still face barriers to holding political office. Kim explains that the United States still has a long way to go before reaching a congressional gender balance anywhere near equal, or even on par with many other countries globally. Additionally, many aspects of modern campaigning — including pressure to constantly fundraise, little privacy, and time away from family — tend to be particularly meaningful deterrents for women considering a run for office. Before women are adequately represented in U.S. political representation, Americans must grapple with these factors. In the past few years, a wave of powerful female candidates has become a key part of the American electoral landscape. Last year in Virginia alone, 11 of 15 House of Delegates seats flipped from Republicans to Democrats also flipped from a man to a woman. Hundreds of women are in the running for American congressional seats this year, a number on track to break records once official filings are finalized. In the context of the upcoming 2018 elections, Kim’s 2012 call for hope still rings true: “if enough women make it to Congress this November, they may indeed prove to be the better bridge builders and compromise brokers Washington desperately needs.”

Happy Holidays from PPI

It’s been a surreal political year, but PPI has much to celebrate this holiday season. Throughout 2017, we expanded our productive capacity and the scope of our political and media outreach significantly. For example, PPI organized 150 meetings with prominent elected officials; visited 10 state capitals and 10 foreign capitals, published an influential book and more than 40 original research papers, and hosted nearly 30 private salon dinners on a variety of topical issues.
Best of all, we saw PPI’s research, analysis, and innovative ideas breaking through the political static and changing the way people think about some critical issues, including how to revive U.S. economic dynamism, spread innovation and jobs to people and places left behind by economic growth, and modernize the ways we prepare young people for work and citizenship.
Let me give you some highlights:
  • This fall, David Osborne’s new book, Reinventing America’s Schools, was published on the 25th anniversary of the nation’s first charter school in Minnesota. David, who heads PPI’s Reinventing America’s Schools project, documents the emergence of a new “21st Century” model for organizing and modernizing our public school system around the principles of school autonomy, accountability, choice, and diversity. David is just winding up a remarkable 20-city book tour that drew wide attention from education, political, and civic leaders, as well as the media. Because David is a great storyteller, as well as analyst, it’s a highly readable book that offers a cogent picture of a K-12 school system geared to the demands of the knowledge economy. It makes a great holiday gift!
  • Dr. Michael Mandel’s pioneering research on e-commerce and job creation also upended conventional wisdom and caught the attention of top economic commentators. Dr. Mandel, PPI’s chief economic strategist, found that online commerce has actually created more jobs in retail than it destroys, and that these new jobs (many in fulfillment centers in outlying areas) pay considerably better than traditional ones. His research buttresses the main premise of PPI’s progressive pro-growth agenda: that spreading digital innovation to the physical economy will create new jobs and businesses, raise labor productivity, and reduce inequality.
  • PPI challenged the dubious panacea of “free college” and proposed a progressive alternative – a robust system of post-secondary learning and credentials for the roughly 70 percent of young Americans who don’t get college degrees. PPI Senior Fellow Harry Holzer developed a creative menu of ways to create more “hybrid learning” opportunities combining work-based and classroom instruction. And PPI Senior Fellow Anne Kim highlighted the inequity of current government policies that subsidize college-bound youth (e.g., Pell Grants), but provide no help for people earning credentials certifying skills that employers value.
  • Building on last year’s opening of a PPI office in Brussels, we expanded our overseas work considerably in 2017. In January, I endeavored to explain the outcome of the U.S. election to shell-shocked audiences in London, Brussels, and Berlin. In April, we led our annual Congressional senior staff delegation to Paris, Brussels, and Berlin to engage European policymakers on the French presidential election and other U.S-E.U. issues, including international taxation, competition policy, and trade. PPI also took its message of data-driven innovation and growth to Australia, Brazil, Japan and a number of other countries.
Other 2017 highlights included a strategy retreat in February with two dozen top elected leaders to explore ideas for a new, radically pragmatic agenda for progressives; a Washington conference with our longtime friend Janet Napolitano (now President of the University of California system) on how to update and preserve NAFTA; public forums in Washington on pricing carbon, infrastructure, tax reform, and other pressing issues; creative policy reports on varied subjects; and a robust output of articles, op-eds, blogs, and social media activity.
I’m also happy to report many terrific additions to PPI in 2017. Rob Keast joined to manage our external relations and new policy development; Paul Bledsoe assumed a new role as Strategic Adviser as well as guiding our work on energy and climate policy; and Emily Langhorne joined as Education Policy Analyst. We will also be adding a fiscal project next year.
All this leaves us poised for a high-impact year in 2018. In this midterm-election year, our top priority will be crafting and building support for a new progressive platform — a radically pragmatic alternative to the political tribalism throttling America’s progress. That starts with new and better ideas for solving peoples’ problems that look forward, not backward, and that speak to their hopes and aspirations, not their anger and mistrust.
It’s a tall order, and we cannot succeed without your help and support. Thanks for all you have done over past years, and we look forward to working with you in 2018.
Happy holidays and New Year!

Marshall for The Daily News, “The embrace of Roy Moore reveals the corrosive, all-consuming corruption of Donald Trump’s Republican Party”

Last week, Republicans played elves to President Trump’s Santa, cobbling together an atrocious package of tax giveaways that will mostly help wealthy Americans while piling at least $1 trillion on the national debt. So much for GOP claims to be the party of working people and fiscal responsibility.

Now Trump and the Republican National Committee are trying to rally their party behind the odious figure of Roy Moore, who is running in next week’s special U.S. Senate election in Alabama. To put it mildly, this poses difficult ethical questions for the nation’s governing party: Is there any limit to what party solidarity can justify? Is Trump’s addiction to winning at any price now the Republican Party’s animating political principle?

Moore is a religious extremist ousted not once but twice from the Alabama Supreme Court for refusing to abide by one of the U.S. Constitution’s core principles: the separation of church and state. That alone should disqualify him from running for local dog catcher, let alone the Senate. So much for the GOP’s professed reverence for constitutional government.

Continue reading at The New York Daily News.

Marshall for The Daily Beast, “Here’s How Democrats Can Win, Not Just Resist”

Democrats—who’d had little to celebrate since Donald Trump’s shocking election a year ago—are exulting in last week’s sweeping victories in Virginia and New Jersey, the first signs that the party can spin Trump’s abysmal public approval ratings into electoral gold.

Yet there’s also a danger of over-interpreting these odd-year election results. New Jersey is a deep blue state, and a combination of demographic change and political pragmatism in Virginia has made Democrats ascendant once again in the Old Dominion. More fundamentally, however, the party can’t engineer a political comeback solely on the strength of an anti-Trump message.

That’s because Democrats’ core dilemma – their lack of competitiveness across America’s broad midsection – is structural. It started before Trump burst onto the political scene and reflects deep cultural and economic changes that have left rural and working class voters feeling forgotten and left behind.

Continue reading at The Daily Beast.

Yarrow for the Baltimore Sun, “Early childhood care undervalued in Md.”

When my son, now in college, started school in Maryland, he went to a private preschool, and only half-day public kindergarten existed. As for most young children in the United States, then and now, public early childhood education was unavailable.

Full-day kindergarten is now the norm, and 35 percent of Maryland’s 4 year olds are enrolled in public preschool, with another 15 percent in private pre-K. But the state still lags behind the national average, according to the Annie E. Casey Foundation. Because low-income children generally have less access, they are less “school ready” by kindergarten, generally perpetuating lifelong disparities. For a state that prides itself on its public education and is also among the nation’s wealthiest in per capita income, it is inexcusable that Maryland lacks free or affordable early childhood care and education.

Continue reading at The Baltimore Sun.

Kim for The American Interest, “One of These Governors Could Save the Democrats in 2020”

State-level Democratic leaders are showing how populism and pragmatism combined can energize liberal turnout while still winning crucial swing-state support.

Under a clear blue sky in late summer, with the peaks of the Gallatin Mountains as a backdrop, Montana Governor Steve Bullock mingles with guests at a private event on a ranch just outside Bozeman. Holding a plate piled high with barbecue, Bullock is half a head taller than most of the people here. He is genial and relaxed, in jeans and battered brown shoes. His nametag reads, “Governor Steve.”

A young mother brings over two little girls in flowered sundresses, and Bullock immediately drops down to eye level. A few minutes later, the girls leave with their mother, smiles on their faces, their votes no doubt locked up for 15 years hence when the girls will be old enough to cast a ballot. In half the conversations that swirl around Bullock, there are joking references to 2020 and hints about the Governor’s ambitions. It’s an open secret here that the Bullock might be running for President.

Just this past fall, Bullock won re-election over GOP challenger billionaire Greg Gianforte by four percentage points—50 percent to 46 percent—in a state where only 35 percent of voters chose Democrat Hillary Clinton for President and Donald Trump won by 20 points. That victory is Bullock’s calling card into the Democratic presidential sweepstakes, along with the prairie populist credentials he has burnished. As the state’s Attorney General, he endeared himself to sportsmen by authoring a state opinion guaranteeing access to public lands. He also took on the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens Uniteddefending the state’s ban on corporate spending (he lost when the Court reaffirmed its decision).

Continue reading at The American Interest. 

Iowa’s App Economy: A Summary

When it comes to tech jobs, global hubs like Silicon Valley, New York, and Austin get all the attention. But, to an increasing degree, our research shows tech-driven employment growth is not restricted to those high-profile areas.

For example, our widely-cited March 2017 report “How the Startup Economy is Spreading Across the Country—and How It Can Be Accelerated” demonstrated that the startup mentality could be found in many regions. And our new report (“The Next Ten Million Jobs”) finds that tech and tech-related jobs grew by 51% in the “Heartland” states from 2007 to 2016, only slightly slower than the nation as a whole. In Iowa, tech and tech-related jobs grew by 83% over the same period (Figure 1), accounting for almost one-quarter of private-sector nonfarm job growth (Table 1).

 

Rotherham for US News, “American Greatness Is Lost on Trump”

The president almost never celebrates the U.S., instead griping about perceived ills.

Here’s something curious and hidden in plain sight: For all his talk about “making America great again,” President Donald Trump spends precious little time actually talking about American greatness. From the campaign to his dark nomination acceptance, a dystopian inaugural address, right up to the present, when is the last time you heard the president talking about the strengths and beauty of America with the frequency or fervor he talks about perceived ills or his critics? A city upon a hill this is not.

Trump tosses rhetorical bouquets at soldiers and first responders, and his scripted Warsaw speech underlined the importance of Western values – but then he came home and continued his off-the-cuff attacks on the media. We get “fire and fury,” but a lot less about our ideals and values. When is the last time you heard the president thank America for the opportunities he and his family enjoyed and enjoy here in this great land today? His wife is an immigrant, yet we hear little of the celebration of how immigrants made and continue to make this land great. He rarely celebrates the rich American story of progress and possibility. Instead, despite all the advantages he’s enjoyed, the president is the man from nope.

Continue reading at U.S. News.