Marshall for The Hill: Brace Yourself: Trump’s Trade War is About to Make Americans Poorer

Move over, Smoot and HawleyPresident Trump has anointed himself America’s greatest protectionist, and he’s launching a global trade war to prove it.

On Wednesday, Trump slapped a minimum 10 percent tariff on all imports, plus additional “reciprocal” tariffs on 60 other countries that have the temerity to sell us things we want to buy. He dubbed it “Liberation Day” to mark the freeing of Americans from the supposedly oppressive burden of trading with others.

Steeped in nostalgia for America’s industrial heyday, Trump imagines he can unilaterally restructure the world’s economy. The president can sign all the executive orders he pleases, but he can’t throw history into reverse or repeal basic economics.

Keep reading in The Hill.

Johnson for The Dispatch: Why Democrats Keep Losing: Policy—Not Messaging

Politics is about changing the world. To change the world, you need power so you can implement the policies you think will help people. And to win power, you need to be able to get votes.
All this is fairly obvious, but we live in a political era where obvious and true things bear repeating. So allow me to state the obvious once more: To win votes, you can’t have wildly different views from the public. That’s a lesson Democrats seem to have forgotten.

In the wake of their 2024 loss, a significant portion of Democratic leadership seems to believe that what the party really needs is to change the messaging. They need more aggressive PR, better catchphrases, more viral stunts. They need to go on more podcasts!

Better PR and messaging strategy would help. But the core thing that held Democrats back in 2024 wasn’t PR strategy. It was the party’s beliefs and policies. If Democrats want to win the kind of large and durable majorities that will allow them to really govern, they’re going to have to rethink those policies.

Read more in The Dispatch.

Ainsley for The Political Quarterly: After Biden: Lessons for Labour and the Global Centre-Left from the United States

Centre-left governments around the world are facing challenging re-elections as populist right-wing candidates and political parties make ground with a discontented electorate. This article draws on research for a project I direct on centre-left renewal at the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), offering some preliminary insights into the forces at play in the recent presidential election in the United States and learning points for the Labour government in the United Kingdom. The research finds that the Democrats lost the presidential election largely owing to the loss of working class voters amongst the ethnically White, Hispanic and Black American population, who turned away from a Democratic Party they felt was not offering the country the change of direction they were seeking. In particular, the failure of former President Biden’s extensive economic programme to win support amongst the voters it was aimed at holds important lessons for centre-left parties aiming to replicate similar approaches.

Read the full essay.

Marshall for The Hill: Public Schools are Languishing in a Political Dead Zone

Stumping for president a quarter-century ago, George W. Bush posed the immortal question, “Is our children learning?” Although his bad grammar elicited much condescending mirth, Bush at least seemed passionate about improving public schools.

Today’s national leaders, not so much.

Ainsley for The Liberal Patriot: What U.S. Democrats Can Learn from the German Election

Last month’s federal election in Germany, which took place at a moment of significant global tension, has attracted international attention. What the new German government, under the leadership of Chancellor Frederich Merz, says and does now on Ukraine, and on the changing relationship between the United States and its oldest allies, will have immediate and long-term repercussions for the global geopolitical picture. Merz’s early comments that Europe will have to have “independence” from the U.S. as the Trump administration increasingly abandons its historic allies, and his willingness to loosen Germany’s “debt brake” to fund ramping up defense spending, have made headlines over the world.

The election was also significant because of the electoral swing from left to right, a result that has important insights for the global center-left, including U.S. Democrats, at this critical juncture as they continue to suffer declines with working-class voters.

Read more in The Liberal Patriot.

Marshall for The Hill: America: Is This What You Voted For? 

President Trump is off to a manic start, carpet bombing Washington with executive orders of dubious legality, firing hundreds of thousands of federal workers and souring relations with America’s neighbors and allies.

I get that Trump was elected to shake up a status quo that working-class voters believe stacks the odds against them. But Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) was right: Trump has no mandate to inflict ruinous trade wars on America’s friends, disable the federal government rather than reform it and throw Ukraine to the Russian wolves.

Green’s protest got him ejected from the president’s stemwinder in Congress Tuesday night, during which Trump served up his usual smorgasbord of self-congratulatory fantasies to rapt Republicans and dejected Democrats.

We shouldn’t forget that half the country didn’t vote for Trump and endorses neither his brazen power grabs nor his embrace of old ideas — high trade barriers and isolationism — that failed our country badly in the past. At 45 percent, Trump’s personal approval rating is the lowest for any newly elected president since he set the record low of 44 percent in 2017.

Republicans no doubt are thrilled their hero is “owning the libs.” But what matters now is whether Trump can deliver tangible benefits to the swing voters who put him narrowly over the top — independents, moderate Republicans and Democratic defectors, especially noncollege Blacks and Latinos.

Continue reading in The Hill.

Kahlenberg for The Liberal Patriot: Time to Ditch DEI in Favor of Something Better

For almost a half century, Republican presidents consistently attacked racial preference programs rhetorically but did little to roll them back. That was true of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, and even Donald Trump in his first term. Trump’s second term is different. The new administration has unleashed a flurry of executive orders and a “Dear Colleague Letter” upending racial preferences and associated trainings and bureaucracies that constitute modern diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs.

How should Democrats respond? Championing existing DEI programs, some of which are completely indefensible, is a political trap that must be avoided. At the same time, Donald Trump has overreached by attacking not only racial preferences (which are unpopular) but also race-neutral efforts, such as class-based affirmative action programs to promote racial diversity (which are broadly supported).

To thread the needle, Democrats would be smart to jettison unpopular and divisive DEI programs in favor of something better—a policy of “integration, equal opportunity, and belonging” that restores the original values of the civil rights movement including judging people based on merit, not race, emphasizing what we have common across racial divides, and championing free speech and dialogue rather than indoctrination.

Such a policy would embrace racial integration without racial preferences—which is precisely what the public wants.

Keep reading in The Liberal Patriot.

Marshall for The Hill: To Stop Trump, Democrats Must Reinvent Themselves

As President Trump and Congressional Republicans use their slim majorities to try to foist a radical regime change on America, Democrats need to reckon with why they’re watching helplessly from the sidelines.

Having lost control of both the White House and Congress, and with Republicans marching in lockstep, there is little they can do to stop Trump’s drive to monopolize political power and rule by diktat. Only the courts are putting speed bumps in his way.

Democrats, yoked to the status quo, are extraordinarily unpopular. Less than a third of Americans view the party favorably, while 57 percent disapprove. Independents are even more likely to express negative views. During the Biden years, Republicans also erased the Democrats’ longstanding advantage in party registration.

Progressive activists nonetheless are pressuring party leaders to make a show of resisting the Trump-Elon Musk blitzkrieg on the federal government. This is tricky: Democrats are duty-bound to speak out against Trump’s unconstitutional usurpation of legislative power. But they must also avoid falling into the trap of defending a federal bureaucracy most Americans believe is badly broken.

Keep reading in The Hill.

German Election Preview: Implications for the Global Center-Left

WASHINGTON As Germany prepares for its snap federal election on February 23, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) has released a “German Election Preview,” authored by Claire Ainsley. The report provides a deep dive into the electoral landscape, key policy debates, and the broader lessons for center-left parties globally.

The election marks the first since Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) won the Chancellery in 2021, ending years of Christian Democrat Union (CDU) dominance. However, as Germans return to the polls, the CDU is poised to reclaim power, while the SPD struggles in third place behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has doubled its support since 2021.

“The German election is not just a national event — it has global significance,” said Claire Ainsley, Director of PPI’s Center-Left Renewal Project. “The SPD’s difficulties mirror the broader challenges for center-left parties in balancing economic credibility, climate ambition, and voter concerns over immigration. Their experience provides crucial lessons for Democrats in the U.S. and Labour in the U.K. as they navigate similar political headwinds.”

Key findings from the report include:

  • A Weakened SPD and a Surging Right: The SPD’s coalition with the Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP) has fractured, following economic stagnation, unpopular climate policies, and a contentious debate over immigration.
  • CDU’s Dilemma: If the CDU wins, it must decide whether to maintain Germany’s long-standing firewall against cooperating with the far-right AfD, and balance political risk by forming another three-party coalition.
  • Economic and Climate Challenges: Germany’s strict “debt brake” has constrained public investment, while the handling of climate policies has fueled voter backlash and who pays for climate ambitions.
  • Immigration as a Defining Issue: Immigration has overtaken the economy as voters’ top concern, with a YouGov poll showing 80% of Germans believing migration levels have been too high in the past decade.

The report argues that the SPD’s struggles highlight a larger challenge for center-left parties worldwide: the need to deliver tangible economic benefits to working people while avoiding policies that deepen voter alienation.

“With working-class voters moving away from the center-left in multiple democracies, leaders must focus on delivering real results — whether on economic security, immigration, or energy affordability,” said Ainsley. “Otherwise, these voters will continue to look elsewhere, as we’ve seen in the U.S. and across Europe.”

After the U.S. navigated its own electoral challenges in 2024 and focuses on the future, PPI’s report offers critical insights into how progressive parties can adapt and rebuild durable political majorities.

Read and download the report here.

PPI’s project on Center-Left Renewal was launched in January 2023 to catalyze and create a renewal of the center-left, sharing ideas, strategies, and research around the world. Since its inception, the project has facilitated a shared exchange between center-left parties, contributing new ideas and analysis designed to further the prospects of the center-left. The project’s outputs are shared by PPI here: www.progressivepolicy.org/project/project-on-center-left-renewal/. Sign up to our project mailing list at info@ppionline.org.

Founded in 1989, PPI is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Find an expert at PPI and follow us on X.

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Media Contact: Ian O’Keefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

 

German Election Preview

INTRODUCTION

On 23 February 2025, Germans will head to the polls in the first federal election since Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) came from third to first to win the Chancellery in October 2021, following the departure of Chancellor Angela Merkel and a long period of Christian Democrat Union (CDU) dominance.

In 2021, the SPD became the lead party in a coalition government with the Green Party and Free Democratic Party (FDP), agreeing on an ambitious government programme based on their ‘four missions for the future’ outlined in the SPD’s winning manifesto.

Yet Sunday’s election looks set to provide a very different outcome, with the CDU back in pole position, and the ruling SPD trailing in a low third with the Greens just behind them in fourth. Second place in the polls is the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right challenger party that has doubled its support since the 2021 federal election, when it came fifth with 10% of the vote.

As attention turns to this historic election, what might we expect from the results? And what lessons can center-left parties elsewhere draw from the German experience?

Read the full report.

Marshall for The Hill: Who Will Stand Up to Trump’s Un-American Rule by Decree?

In just three weeks, President Trump has set an all-too-familiar tone for his White House sequel: chaotic, dishonest, bullying and contemptuous of the rule of law.

Only it’s worse this time because Trump erroneously believes his narrow victory last November — he won the popular vote by just 1.5 percent — has given him a mandate to rule the U.S. by decree.

He’s lashing out madly in every direction — threatening our neighbors with massive tariffs, bullying small countries like Denmark and Panama whose territory he covets, proposing to depopulate and take over Gaza and settling scores with the very government he heads, which he imagines to be his worst enemy.

Americans are witnessing a naked power grab that would shred the Constitution’s checks and balances, rob Congress of its most important powers, neuter the courts and create the imperial presidency that Richard Nixon dreamt of long ago.

Keep reading in The Hill.

Weinstein Jr. for Forbes: Seven Lessons For Elon Musk And DOGE

One thing all Americans should be able to agree on is that our government (and how it operates) leaves a lot to be desired.

Unfortunately, Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) seem ready to bring the same kind of arbitrary and ego-driven reforms that cut the value of Twitter (now X) by 80%, to the federal government. As its name implies, DOGE is supposed to focus on improving efficiency. But instead of presenting reforms to streamline government sensibly, Musk’s initial forays are mostly focused on political retribution and a desire to gut the federal workforce no matter the cost to efficiency, expertise, and security.

For too long both Republicans and Democrats have shied away from the hard choices needed to reform the federal government. If President Trump and Musk continue on their current path, another window of opportunity will have been tossed away. Fortunately, there is time to halt the madness, and instead adopt a reform agenda that draws on successful government reform initiatives—like the first Hoover Commission (1947 to 1949) and the Clinton-Gore reinventing government (REGO) policies—that offer a clear roadmap on how to save taxpayers dollars and enhance government performance.

Read more in Forbes. 

Former UK Labour Party Chief David Evans Joins PPI

The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is pleased to announce that David Evans, Baron Evans of Sealand, former General Secretary of the UK Labour Party, has joined PPI as a senior advisor. In his new role, Evans brings decades of political expertise to PPI’s Project on Center-Left Renewal, which fosters PPI’s ongoing dialogue with center-left parties across Europe and the world.

Evans served as General Secretary of the Labour Party from 2020 to 2024. During this time, he helped modernize the party’s structures and shape its strategic direction under Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership. In addition to spearheading Labour’s 2024 general election campaign, his career includes playing a key role in Labour’s 1997 and 2001 election victories; pioneering work to promote cohesion, community engagement, and behavior change; and informing public policy and political strategy. During his tenure as general secretary, Labour secured 411 seats in the UK Parliament, their largest majority government in a quarter-century.

PPI’s Project on Center-Left Renewal, launched in 2023 and based in the United Kingdom, continues a long-running conversation with center-left parties in Europe and around the world. Its purpose is to exchange ideas, strategies, and tactics for making center-left parties more competitive and improving their governing performance. Led by Claire Ainsley, former Executive Director for Policy for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the project has contributed immensely to a renewed transatlantic dialogue between Labour and Democrats.

As part of its commitment to revitalizing center-left politics, PPI recently released an in-depth analysis of the 2024 United States presidential election, co-authored by PPI President Will MarshallAinsley, and Deborah Mattinson. The report examines the key factors behind the Democratic Party’s electoral loss and offers a roadmap for reconnecting with working-class voters. Drawing lessons from the successes of the Labour Party and other center-left successes in Europe, the report outlines strategies for building durable governing majorities and addressing the economic and cultural concerns of working families.

“I am honored to join the Progressive Policy Institute and contribute to the Project on Center-Left Renewal,” said Evans. “In my tenure with the Labour Party, we demonstrated that with the right strategies and organizational focus, progressive parties can regain the trust of the electorate. I look forward to collaborating with colleagues at PPI to share insights and develop policies that resonate with working people across the globe.”

“David Evans is a key architect of the UK Labour Party’s revival and sweeping victory in last year’s elections,” said Marshall. “As Labour’s General Secretary, Evans worked closely with now Prime Minister Keir Starmer to help his party change course after its calamitous 2019 defeat and reconnect with its working-class base. That is fundamentally the same challenge Democrats face now. We’re proud that David has agreed to join forces with PPI as we work on revitalizing center-left politics here and abroad.”

“Lord Evans was central to reforming the UK Labour Party and making it electable again,” said PPI Chief Executive Officer Lindsay Mark Lewis. “His strong leadership took a center-left Party that had lost the trust of voters across the UK and took the party into a new era of election victory. His experience and lessons learned is something center-left leaders across the globe can learn from.”

Founded in 1989, PPI is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Find an expert and learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Follow us @PPI

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Media Contact: Ian O’Keefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

Marshall Interview in LabourList: ‘Trump’s riding a working-class revolt’: Where should the Democrats go next?

LabourList sat down with Will Marshall, president and founder of PPI, a US-based think tank once known as Bill Clinton’s “idea mill”. He said the continued erosion of the Democrats’ core voters, particularly among Black and Latino voters, was “disconcerting”.

He said: “What we have is a kind of general picture of a class-based politics, in which the Democrats increasingly represent upscale, affluent, college-educated voters, and the Republicans increasingly represent a kind of multi-ethnic working class. It looks like Trump is riding a working-class revolt against the political establishment.”

While Marshall said Democrats remained disoriented by the scale of their defeat to Donald Trump, he said there is consensus around some points as to why they lost in November.

“Cultural politics based on gender, immigration and crime were really damaging. They were major Democratic vulnerabilities for Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

“We need to find a centre ground on many of these fraught cultural issues.”

Continue reading in LabourList.