Marshall for The Hill: To Stop Trump, Democrats Must Reinvent Themselves

As President Trump and Congressional Republicans use their slim majorities to try to foist a radical regime change on America, Democrats need to reckon with why they’re watching helplessly from the sidelines.

Having lost control of both the White House and Congress, and with Republicans marching in lockstep, there is little they can do to stop Trump’s drive to monopolize political power and rule by diktat. Only the courts are putting speed bumps in his way.

Democrats, yoked to the status quo, are extraordinarily unpopular. Less than a third of Americans view the party favorably, while 57 percent disapprove. Independents are even more likely to express negative views. During the Biden years, Republicans also erased the Democrats’ longstanding advantage in party registration.

Progressive activists nonetheless are pressuring party leaders to make a show of resisting the Trump-Elon Musk blitzkrieg on the federal government. This is tricky: Democrats are duty-bound to speak out against Trump’s unconstitutional usurpation of legislative power. But they must also avoid falling into the trap of defending a federal bureaucracy most Americans believe is badly broken.

Keep reading in The Hill.

German Election Preview: Implications for the Global Center-Left

WASHINGTON As Germany prepares for its snap federal election on February 23, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) has released a “German Election Preview,” authored by Claire Ainsley. The report provides a deep dive into the electoral landscape, key policy debates, and the broader lessons for center-left parties globally.

The election marks the first since Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) won the Chancellery in 2021, ending years of Christian Democrat Union (CDU) dominance. However, as Germans return to the polls, the CDU is poised to reclaim power, while the SPD struggles in third place behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has doubled its support since 2021.

“The German election is not just a national event — it has global significance,” said Claire Ainsley, Director of PPI’s Center-Left Renewal Project. “The SPD’s difficulties mirror the broader challenges for center-left parties in balancing economic credibility, climate ambition, and voter concerns over immigration. Their experience provides crucial lessons for Democrats in the U.S. and Labour in the U.K. as they navigate similar political headwinds.”

Key findings from the report include:

  • A Weakened SPD and a Surging Right: The SPD’s coalition with the Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP) has fractured, following economic stagnation, unpopular climate policies, and a contentious debate over immigration.
  • CDU’s Dilemma: If the CDU wins, it must decide whether to maintain Germany’s long-standing firewall against cooperating with the far-right AfD, and balance political risk by forming another three-party coalition.
  • Economic and Climate Challenges: Germany’s strict “debt brake” has constrained public investment, while the handling of climate policies has fueled voter backlash and who pays for climate ambitions.
  • Immigration as a Defining Issue: Immigration has overtaken the economy as voters’ top concern, with a YouGov poll showing 80% of Germans believing migration levels have been too high in the past decade.

The report argues that the SPD’s struggles highlight a larger challenge for center-left parties worldwide: the need to deliver tangible economic benefits to working people while avoiding policies that deepen voter alienation.

“With working-class voters moving away from the center-left in multiple democracies, leaders must focus on delivering real results — whether on economic security, immigration, or energy affordability,” said Ainsley. “Otherwise, these voters will continue to look elsewhere, as we’ve seen in the U.S. and across Europe.”

After the U.S. navigated its own electoral challenges in 2024 and focuses on the future, PPI’s report offers critical insights into how progressive parties can adapt and rebuild durable political majorities.

Read and download the report here.

PPI’s project on Center-Left Renewal was launched in January 2023 to catalyze and create a renewal of the center-left, sharing ideas, strategies, and research around the world. Since its inception, the project has facilitated a shared exchange between center-left parties, contributing new ideas and analysis designed to further the prospects of the center-left. The project’s outputs are shared by PPI here: www.progressivepolicy.org/project/project-on-center-left-renewal/. Sign up to our project mailing list at info@ppionline.org.

Founded in 1989, PPI is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Find an expert at PPI and follow us on X.

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Media Contact: Ian O’Keefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

 

German Election Preview

INTRODUCTION

On 23 February 2025, Germans will head to the polls in the first federal election since Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) came from third to first to win the Chancellery in October 2021, following the departure of Chancellor Angela Merkel and a long period of Christian Democrat Union (CDU) dominance.

In 2021, the SPD became the lead party in a coalition government with the Green Party and Free Democratic Party (FDP), agreeing on an ambitious government programme based on their ‘four missions for the future’ outlined in the SPD’s winning manifesto.

Yet Sunday’s election looks set to provide a very different outcome, with the CDU back in pole position, and the ruling SPD trailing in a low third with the Greens just behind them in fourth. Second place in the polls is the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right challenger party that has doubled its support since the 2021 federal election, when it came fifth with 10% of the vote.

As attention turns to this historic election, what might we expect from the results? And what lessons can center-left parties elsewhere draw from the German experience?

Read the full report.

Marshall for The Hill: Who Will Stand Up to Trump’s Un-American Rule by Decree?

In just three weeks, President Trump has set an all-too-familiar tone for his White House sequel: chaotic, dishonest, bullying and contemptuous of the rule of law.

Only it’s worse this time because Trump erroneously believes his narrow victory last November — he won the popular vote by just 1.5 percent — has given him a mandate to rule the U.S. by decree.

He’s lashing out madly in every direction — threatening our neighbors with massive tariffs, bullying small countries like Denmark and Panama whose territory he covets, proposing to depopulate and take over Gaza and settling scores with the very government he heads, which he imagines to be his worst enemy.

Americans are witnessing a naked power grab that would shred the Constitution’s checks and balances, rob Congress of its most important powers, neuter the courts and create the imperial presidency that Richard Nixon dreamt of long ago.

Keep reading in The Hill.

Weinstein Jr. for Forbes: Seven Lessons For Elon Musk And DOGE

One thing all Americans should be able to agree on is that our government (and how it operates) leaves a lot to be desired.

Unfortunately, Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) seem ready to bring the same kind of arbitrary and ego-driven reforms that cut the value of Twitter (now X) by 80%, to the federal government. As its name implies, DOGE is supposed to focus on improving efficiency. But instead of presenting reforms to streamline government sensibly, Musk’s initial forays are mostly focused on political retribution and a desire to gut the federal workforce no matter the cost to efficiency, expertise, and security.

For too long both Republicans and Democrats have shied away from the hard choices needed to reform the federal government. If President Trump and Musk continue on their current path, another window of opportunity will have been tossed away. Fortunately, there is time to halt the madness, and instead adopt a reform agenda that draws on successful government reform initiatives—like the first Hoover Commission (1947 to 1949) and the Clinton-Gore reinventing government (REGO) policies—that offer a clear roadmap on how to save taxpayers dollars and enhance government performance.

Read more in Forbes. 

Former UK Labour Party Chief David Evans Joins PPI

The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is pleased to announce that David Evans, Baron Evans of Sealand, former General Secretary of the UK Labour Party, has joined PPI as a senior advisor. In his new role, Evans brings decades of political expertise to PPI’s Project on Center-Left Renewal, which fosters PPI’s ongoing dialogue with center-left parties across Europe and the world.

Evans served as General Secretary of the Labour Party from 2020 to 2024. During this time, he helped modernize the party’s structures and shape its strategic direction under Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership. In addition to spearheading Labour’s 2024 general election campaign, his career includes playing a key role in Labour’s 1997 and 2001 election victories; pioneering work to promote cohesion, community engagement, and behavior change; and informing public policy and political strategy. During his tenure as general secretary, Labour secured 411 seats in the UK Parliament, their largest majority government in a quarter-century.

PPI’s Project on Center-Left Renewal, launched in 2023 and based in the United Kingdom, continues a long-running conversation with center-left parties in Europe and around the world. Its purpose is to exchange ideas, strategies, and tactics for making center-left parties more competitive and improving their governing performance. Led by Claire Ainsley, former Executive Director for Policy for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the project has contributed immensely to a renewed transatlantic dialogue between Labour and Democrats.

As part of its commitment to revitalizing center-left politics, PPI recently released an in-depth analysis of the 2024 United States presidential election, co-authored by PPI President Will MarshallAinsley, and Deborah Mattinson. The report examines the key factors behind the Democratic Party’s electoral loss and offers a roadmap for reconnecting with working-class voters. Drawing lessons from the successes of the Labour Party and other center-left successes in Europe, the report outlines strategies for building durable governing majorities and addressing the economic and cultural concerns of working families.

“I am honored to join the Progressive Policy Institute and contribute to the Project on Center-Left Renewal,” said Evans. “In my tenure with the Labour Party, we demonstrated that with the right strategies and organizational focus, progressive parties can regain the trust of the electorate. I look forward to collaborating with colleagues at PPI to share insights and develop policies that resonate with working people across the globe.”

“David Evans is a key architect of the UK Labour Party’s revival and sweeping victory in last year’s elections,” said Marshall. “As Labour’s General Secretary, Evans worked closely with now Prime Minister Keir Starmer to help his party change course after its calamitous 2019 defeat and reconnect with its working-class base. That is fundamentally the same challenge Democrats face now. We’re proud that David has agreed to join forces with PPI as we work on revitalizing center-left politics here and abroad.”

“Lord Evans was central to reforming the UK Labour Party and making it electable again,” said PPI Chief Executive Officer Lindsay Mark Lewis. “His strong leadership took a center-left Party that had lost the trust of voters across the UK and took the party into a new era of election victory. His experience and lessons learned is something center-left leaders across the globe can learn from.”

Founded in 1989, PPI is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Find an expert and learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Follow us @PPI

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Media Contact: Ian O’Keefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

Marshall Interview in LabourList: ‘Trump’s riding a working-class revolt’: Where should the Democrats go next?

LabourList sat down with Will Marshall, president and founder of PPI, a US-based think tank once known as Bill Clinton’s “idea mill”. He said the continued erosion of the Democrats’ core voters, particularly among Black and Latino voters, was “disconcerting”.

He said: “What we have is a kind of general picture of a class-based politics, in which the Democrats increasingly represent upscale, affluent, college-educated voters, and the Republicans increasingly represent a kind of multi-ethnic working class. It looks like Trump is riding a working-class revolt against the political establishment.”

While Marshall said Democrats remained disoriented by the scale of their defeat to Donald Trump, he said there is consensus around some points as to why they lost in November.

“Cultural politics based on gender, immigration and crime were really damaging. They were major Democratic vulnerabilities for Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

“We need to find a centre ground on many of these fraught cultural issues.”

Continue reading in LabourList.

Ainsley for Future Governance Forum: Going Global and Local – The Way Ahead for the Centre Left

The inauguration of Donald Trump has the potential to be much more significant in our world history than his first inauguration in January 2017. Rather than complacently assuming the four years of the first Trump presidency to be an interruption on an otherwise centrist path to greater progress and freedom, a second Trump presidency shows the first not to be an anomaly and begins in a world that has taken a sharp turn towards authoritarian leadership.

The incoming administration has a clear political agenda for its second term and the outline of a plan to achieve it. While the primary focus of that plan is domestic, America’s relationship with the world is at the centre of the incoming government’s political philosophy. As we have already seen with the impact on UK domestic politics of the global markets anticipating potentially inflationary policies coming from the US, decisions taken well beyond our borders can have a big impact here at home. This is before Trump has even started his second presidency. What does Trump’s second term mean for the British Labour government and the global centre-left? And what next for Democrats in the US?

Continue reading in Future Governance Forum.

Marshall for The Hill: With or Without DOGE, Democrats Need a Plan for Fixing the Government

It’s not hard to lampoon DOGE, the misnamed “Department of Government Efficiency” sprung from the fevered brains of President-elect Donald Trump’s favorite tech oligarchs, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.

The DOGE has grand ambitions — eliminating government regulations, jobs and agencies and slashing federal spending by $2 trillion — but no powers.

It won’t be a government department or even a formal advisory committee, say Musk and Ramaswamy. Instead, it will be a “lean team of small-government crusaders” feeding the Trump White House ideas for cutting the “deep state” down to size.

They maintain, implausibly, that Trump can drastically shrink the federal government through executive orders alone. Apparently, they expect Congress and the courts to roll over and grant Trump autocratic powers to “restore” democracy.

But before Democrats dismiss the DOGE as just more MAGA trollery, it’s fair to ask — where’s their plan for making government more efficient and effective?

Continue reading in The Hill.

Marshall in The New York Times: Trump’s Return Is a Civil Society Failure

A post-election YouGov poll commissioned by the Progressive Policy Institute, a centrist Democratic think tank, sent a clear message to party loyalists.

YouGov asked 5,098 working-class voters (defined as those without college degrees), including detailed analyses of voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and also asked 881 people in the national sample, to evaluate the political parties on measures of trust and commitment.

More significant, on two survey questions that previously favored Democrats — is the party “on my side or not” and which party do you trust “to fight for people like me” — the Democrats lost ground to Republicans. Fifty percent of all voters participating in this survey said that the Republican Party would fight for people “like me,” while 36 percent said the Democratic Party would.

In an essay accompanying the release of the poll, Will Marshall, president and founder of the Progressive Policy Institute, wrote:

The most lethal attack ad of the presidential campaign was a clip from a 2019 interview in which Kamala Harris explains her support for publicly funded sex-change surgery for prisoners, including detained immigrants. The kicker: “Kamala is for they/them; President Trump is for you.”

Keep reading in The New York Times.

Remembering Another Date That Will Live in Infamy

Today marks the fourth anniversary of a shameful first in the 236-year old saga of American democracy — the Jan. 6, 2021 plot to overturn a U.S. presidential election and block the peaceful transition of power. 

As then-Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell told Congress and the nation, the author of this attempted coup was then-President Donald Trump, whom Biden had handily defeated in the 2020 election. 

Instead of accepting the voters’ verdict, Trump launched a campaign of lies and intimidation intended to nullify the election result and prevent Biden, the rightful winner, from taking his seat. When that failed, he summoned a mob of supporters to Washington and instigated a violent and destructive attack on the Capitol, where Congress was meeting to certify Biden’s victory.

That insurrection likewise failed. But it claimed the lives of rioters and police officers alike, forced Congressional leaders to hide and flee and led to criminal prosecutions for more than 1500 Trump backers.

Trump’s obvious complicity in these criminal and treasonous acts should have disqualified him from ever serving in public office again. But Senate Republicans – led by McConnell – failed to rise to the defense of Constitutional government and impeach a president gone rogue.

Even worse, honest Republican election officials who withstood Trump’s attempts to corrupt them and political leaders who condemned his subversion of our electoral system have been hounded out of public life.

When U.S. voters last November elected Trump president, they set a baleful precedent in normalizing deviant political behavior. Our country has crossed a moral and legal Rubicon, and it’s essential that all patriotic Americans regardless of party resolve to repair the damage done to peoples’ confidence – at home and around the world – in the integrity of America’s democratic institutions and rules.

Here the people are sovereign, and Democrats and independents must accept their decisions even if we find them hard to understand or respect. That’s why Trump is now receiving from President Biden that which he refused to give him – a orderly and peaceful transfer of power.   

But as citizens, we should never forget or forgive what happened on Jan. 6, 2021. Instead, let’s stay vigilant and resolute in repelling further attacks on what remains the world’s foremost experiment in democratic self-government.

Marshall for The Hill: Democrats Must Make Working Americans a Better Offer

Americans voted for radical change in November, and judging by the chaos he’s already generated before taking office, Donald Trump might give them more than they bargained for. Can Democrats offer a saner alternative?

So far, the signs aren’t encouraging. Instead of taking a hard look at how they managed to lose to the most ethically tainted and unpopular presidential candidate in memory, many in the party seek refuge in self-exonerating excuses.

President Biden was too old. Kamala Harris didn’t have time to wage a real campaign. Republicans and Elon Musk dominated social media and flooded the campaign debate with lies and bigoted attacks on immigrants and transexual people. The high cost of living warped voters’ perception of the nation’s economic health.

Keep reading in The Hill.

PPI in The Free Press: Voters Sent Democrats a Clear Message. They Don’t Want to Hear It.

Voters clearly sense that the inmates are running the asylum. In an interesting finding from a Progressive Policy Institute postelection survey of working-class (noncollege) voters, just 34 percent of respondents said they trusted Harris to stand up to the extreme members of her party. By contrast, a majority said they thought Trump could do so.
But the issue goes deeper than fear. Far too many Democrats simply believe they are on the “right side of history” when it comes to policies around immigration, crime, race, and trans issues.

Read more in The Free Press.

A Transatlantic Dialogue on the Industrial Heartlands

For a generation, people living in the traditional industrial heartlands all over the world have been buffeted by a technological and services revolution, the decline of manufacturing, and the rise of a borderless global digital economy. The result is deepening inequality, ongoing political support for right-wing populists and a hollowing out of the middle class.

With this three-year project together with our partners from the U.S. and Germany we aim to create new opportunities in old industrial heartlands in both countries by forging a transatlantic dialogue, exchanging best practices and developing political strategies and policy solutions for a better, greener and more democratic future. The main goal is to deliver increased living standards and opportunities, while also working towards rebuilding trust in democracy in the U.S. and Germany.

Neel Brown talks with two of the program fellows, Colleen Dougherty⁠ and ⁠Friedrich Opitz⁠, about their reflections on the fellowship’s October trip to Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.

Learn more about the program: https://www.industrial-heartlands.com/