issue: Politics
Ainsley for The Liberal Patriot: Can Liberal Patriotism Save Britain From the National Populists?
Under pressure from the national populists and a restless party, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has come out fighting. His landmark speech to the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool last week gave his premiership more definition than ever before, firmly in the mold of the modern liberal patriot.
It is political definition that has never been more needed. On the eve of its annual conference, Labour had been rattled by authoritative constituency-level polling showing that its landslide victory just a year ago would be wiped out by right-wing challenger party Reform UK, taking two-thirds of Labour’s MPs with it. 267 Labour MPs, many newly elected, would lose their seats. The British Conservatives would win just 45 constituencies. Reform UK would eat up former Labour and Tory support with 306 gains, putting leader Nigel Farage on course to be the next Prime Minister.
Of course there is no general election imminent, with the next national vote expected in four years, but together with internal rumblings about Starmer’s leadership, it set the backdrop for a bumpy few days at the Labour annual conference after a bumpier first year since Labour returned to power after fourteen years in opposition.
Marshall in CNN: How Today’s Democratic Soul-Searching Echoes the Clinton Era
Will Marshall, who has served as the Progressive Policy Institute’s president since its founding, says so many efforts are competing that none is likely to exert as much concentrated influence as the DLC did in its heyday. (The DLC itself officially closed its doors in 2011 but faded as a force in the party after Clinton left office 10 years earlier.) “If you wanted to show that you were a reform-minded Democrat, a modernizing Democrat, you joined up with the DLC and it was really the only enterprise dedicated to changing the party’s governing agenda,” Marshall said. “Now you have a slew of so-called centrist groups that are out there operating independently, and it’s all very disjointed.”
Marshall, like others I spoke with, sees another big obstacle for today’s efforts — these projects are primarily led by consultants and strategists. The DLC, he notes, was defined mostly by elected officials representing politically swing constituencies. That contrast, Marshall says, will make it harder to move these ideas into the party mainstream.
“We had a large cadre of credible Democratic figures-governors, senators, House members, state leaders-who embraced the mission of the new Democrats because they could feel the ground shaking under their feet,” Marshall said. Winning buy-in from large numbers of elected Democrats will be harder today, he says, “because the party is so shrunken, and the number of competitive seats is so shrunken, that the Democrats left standing are mostly safe.”
Marshall for The Hill: Democrats Need Tough Liberals Like Bobby Kennedy
Bending laws and norms to the breaking point, President Trump is ordering political show trials of critics, stifling free speech, subjecting Spanish-speaking citizens to police state tactics and choking our economy with tariffs.
Trump’s MAGA followers greet his autocratic power grabs with vindictive glee — finally, we’re on top! Everyone else is asking: Where are the Democrats?
The party establishment seems adrift, unwilling to make a clean break with flawed policies like Bidenomics, climate alarmism and tolerance of illegal immigration and social disorder that have thoroughly alienated working class voters.
Democrats need a new breed of leader — liberals tough enough to challenge progressive orthodoxies and move the party back to the political mainstream.
For inspiration, they could do worse than look back to Sen. Bobby Kennedy’s (D-N.Y.)1968 presidential campaign. Although tragically cut short by an assassin’s bullet, Kennedy’s run offers Democrats valuable clues for building a bigger, cross-class coalition.
Ainsley in BBC News: What lessons can Starmer learn from world leaders on fighting Reform?
Claire Ainsley, who was Sir Keir Starmer’s policy chief when he was in opposition, is now overseeing a project on centre-left renewal at the Progressive Policy Institute, and her advice is to grow the “seeds of doubt” about Reform in the electorate’s minds in the three years between now and the election.
She believes that while people are happy to cast a protest vote, they currently question whether Reform are really a government in waiting – so challenging them on whether their policies hold together, or whether their numbers add up, is a way of undermining their support.
But it does also mean doing more to tackle the core issue. She says the party leadership realised “the previous set of answers on immigration were not going to wash with the British public that want to see action”, and says she was encouraged by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s promise that “nothing is off the table” in tackling illegal migration.
But tackling Reform isn’t just about immigration. Ms Ainsley says it’s about people feeling worse off and not feeling they have got a fair deal on the economy, and a sense that other people are getting treated better than them.
Marshall for New York Daily News: How Citizens Can Fight MAGA Cancel Culture
The outbreak of political and corporate cowardice in America since Donald Trump’s return to the White House is reaching epic proportions.
ABC’s short-lived suspension of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” is just the latest example. With some honorable exceptions — I never thought I’d be cheering for Harvard — almost every public or private entity seems to be caving in to Trump’s dictates.
The president is engaging in a kind of Godfather cosplay, turning the executive branch into a Mafia-style extortion racket. Nice little network you’ve got there; it’d be a shame if something bad were to happen to it.
His consiglieri in this case was FCC Chairman Brendan Carr, who threatened to yank the broadcast licenses of ABC’s affiliates that carry the Kimmel show. “We can do this the easy way or the hard way” he warned them.
Carr knows better. In 2019 he declared: “The FCC does not have a roving mandate to police speech in the name of the ‘public interest’ ” He was right then, and his willingness now to act as Trump’s censor is craven hypocrisy.
Marshall for The Hill: How Democrats Can Get Their Economic Mojo Back
President Trump’s political rise has been a stress test of American democracy — maybe the most serious we’ve faced since the Civil War. To prevent irreparable damage to our economy, our social cohesion, and the rule of law, our country needs a bigger, stronger Democratic Party.
Yet U.S. voters see the opposition party as weak and rudderless. Whether measured in terms of electoral competitiveness, public approval ratings or party registration, Democrats have hit a political nadir.
You don’t have to be a partisan Democrat to think that’s bad for the country — not just for the world’s oldest political party. Robust electoral competition is our best defense against populist demagogues who seek to monopolize political power.
But the party coalition has shrunk over the last decade as Democrats traded breadth of public support for youthful intensity and ideological zeal. By tailoring their governing agenda mainly to the specifications of liberal-left college grads, they have alienated voters without degrees and made themselves uncompetitive in a growing number of states.
How does a failing party turn itself around? By owning its mistakes and dramatically changing course.
Read more in The Hill.
Marshall, Ainsley in Politico EU: How Britain’s Labour Party is (quietly) keeping up with the Democrats
Claire Ainsley, a former aide to Starmer who is now the director of the PPI’s project on center-left renewal, said: “Looking at who’s going to be the next candidate is actually only one part of the equation. The other part of it is which faction, if you like, is going to get their candidate to emerge?”
With Bill Clinton in the 1990s, she argued, “you build the platform and the candidate emerges. It wasn’t as if Clinton came with all these ideas — you had to build a platform.” But this becomes a battle of competing ideologies too, with different think tanks lobbying for the kind of center left they want to see. […]
Likewise, Labour’s recent former General Secretary David Evans, now an adviser to PPI, has been to the U.S. with Ainsley to speak to Democratic strategists, including at a Denver summit in April. The pair are due to attend a similar behind-closed-doors “retreat” in Las Vegas on Sept. 13, where speakers will include Obama’s former chief of staff (and potential presidential hopeful) Rahm Emanuel.
The PPI has its eye on talented governors such as Whitmer, Colorado’s Jared Polis, Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, newcomers such as North Carolina’s Josh Stein and former governors such as Rhode Island’s Gina Raimondo, who also served in Joe Biden’s cabinet as a commerce secretary.
Shapiro and Whitmer in particular, argued PPI President Will Marshall, embody an “impatience with government bureausclerosis” — a battle occupying Labour in the U.K. Friendly think tanks like to hail Shapiro for fixing a key interstate in just 12 days after it collapsed.
In the U.K., PPI is interested in center-left ministers such as Lammy, Wes Streeting, Bridget Phillipson, John Healey, Ellie Reeves, Alison McGovern, Torsten Bell, Kirsty McNeill and Lucy Rigby, along with new junior ministers such as Kanishka Narayan and Mike Tapp.
Democratic former Congressman Tim Ryan — who ran unsuccessfully for president in 2020 as well as against the now-Vice President JD Vance in a 2022 Ohio Senate race — came to the U.K. in July, facilitated by the PPI, and held briefings with Labour MPs and peers. Ainsley and Deborah Mattinson, a pollster and former Starmer adviser who works with the PPI, presented research on swing voters who are becoming disillusioned with center-left parties.
Read more in Politico EU.
Marshall for The Hill: Trump is Sinking, but Democrats Aren’t Rising — Here’s Why
Like all good flimfam artists, President Trump is a master of misdirection.
As Americans grow increasingly skeptical of his inflationary tariffs, deficit-swelling tax cuts and senseless push to gut federal agencies and research, he floods the zone with a firehose of falsehoods to shift media and public attention elsewhere.
Take his grandstanding plan to dispatch U.S. troops to Chicago and other cities, as he’s already done to Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. It’s a classic “wag the dog” ploy with a Trumpian twist: Instead of fabricating a foreign military crisis to divert voters from their domestic woes, he’s invading America’s blue metros.
Crime and public disorder, including sprawling homeless encampments, are serious problems. But a rational president would partner with local leaders to alleviate them instead of putting our cities under military occupation.
Trump’s grotesquely exaggerated claims of urban anarchy discredit America in the world’s eyes so he can score political points at home. Hard-core Republicans eat it up, but the rest of the country seems unswayed by the president’s gaslighting.
Keep reading in The Hill.
Marshall for The Hill: In a Liberal Society, Equity is a False Idol
Over the last two decades, progressive activists have introduced lots of sententious words and euphemisms into the U.S. political lexicon.
Examples include microaggression, intersectionality, cisgender, BIPOC, Latinx, “the unhoused” (that is, the homeless), returning citizens (ex-convicts) and “pregnant persons” (formerly “women”).
For those not up to speed on the latest academic conceits and ideological fads, including non-college voters streaming out of the Democratic Party, progressives might as well be speaking Esperanto.
They have also infused old words with new meanings. Take “equity.” Specifically, it means ownership in a house or stocks. But in its new meaning, it is used more generally as a synonym for fairness.
Now, it has become a pillar of DEI — the hallowed trinity of diversity, equity and inclusion that defines today’s “social justice” ethos. In this context, “equity” conveys a demand for something stronger than mere equality.
Read more in The Hill.
Marshall in The New York Times: The Seeds of Democratic Revival Have Already Been Sown
We encountered more emphasis from the left than the center on countering corporate power. Centrists, by contrast, emphasized reforming the government itself (…)
Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, a moderate think tank, put it this way: Democrats “need to get serious about reinventing government again. One big reason Bidenomics didn’t land with working families is that they don’t think the federal government works for their benefit or can deliver on its promises. By reflexively defending underperforming public institutions — from public schools to ossified federal agencies — Democrats only cement their identification with a broken status quo.”
Ainsley for ABC Radio National Breakfast: UK’s Labour Party suspends four MPs in rising rebellion over welfare policy
As British Prime Minister tries to reassert control of his party room, four rebel Labour MPs have been suspended after voting against the government’s welfare reform bill earlier this month.
Keir Starmer has defended the decision, which follows an earlier back-flip on key welfare measures in the wake of ongoing pressure from Labour MPs.
Critics say the suspensions could deepen divisions in the party and spark further unrest on Labour’s left.
- Guest: Claire Ainsley, Former Director of Policy to Keir Starmer, now Director of the Project on Center-Left Renewal at the Progressive Policy Institute
Build Back Belief: Why Voters Around the World Lost Faith in Government and How to Win it Back
INTRODUCTION: A BREAKDOWN IN TRUST
Listening to swing voters in Pittsburgh, Brandenburg, and Accrington, we heard the same story over and over. Frustration, even anger, with the politicians they had elected to serve them.
A powerful sense of injustice fueled by the belief that government is no longer on the side of the people it has been elected to serve. Dismay that working people like them must work harder and harder just to get by, drained of hope and aspiration. Fearful for their children and grandchildren in an increasingly insecure world.
The change imperative could not have been more powerfully felt: change to break through the malaise with a different kind of politics led by politicians they can truly believe in. Perpetuating the status quo is no longer an option for many voters who feel ignored and disregarded as their futures ebb away.
When we looked at what has worked electorally for the center left – in the U.K. a year ago, in Australia, in pockets of the U.S. where some Democrats had outperformed the norm – we found common themes.
Successful candidates persuaded voters – against the odds – to believe in them: to believe that they would deliver for them, because they believed they could deliver for them (they were competent to do so) – and, even more importantly, to believe they wanted to deliver for them. Their conviction, sense of purpose and leadership shone through.
Conviction seems to be the deal breaker. Only by feeling the strength of political leaders’ own conviction was it possible to truly believe in them.
And only when voters believed in their political leaders was it possible to believe things could get better in their country, for their future, for their communities, for their families.
This pamphlet sets out to unpack the insight gained from hours of conversation with strategists and the crucial voters they set out to woo in the U.S., U.K., Australia and Germany – and to turn that insight into practical ways for progressives to remake the broken contract between government and the people, and start to win again.
READ THE FULL PUBLICATION.
Marshall for The Hill: How Trump Can Capitalize on Autocrats’ Setbacks
The defanging of Iran — chiefly by Israel, with a strong assist from President Trump and the U.S. Air Force — doesn’t just signal a dramatic power shift in the Middle East. It is also a setback to Iran’s senior partners in the anti-American axis — Russia and China.
Neither has offered their battered ally anything more than boilerplate denunciations of Israel and the U.S. for violating international law. For now, at least, the fearsome “Axis of Autocracies,” bent on disrupting the U.S.-led global order — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — looks rather brittle.
Dictators rarely make reliable allies. Apart from coveting absolute power, each has little in common with other nations’ despots. Their pacts tend to be opportunistic and fleeting. Even as the tide of war turned against them, for instance, Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan never found a way to align their strategic goals or military strategies.
Alliances between liberal democracies seem to have more tensile strength. That’s because they are bound together by shared political beliefs and institutions, not just common adversaries.
Even Trump, the arch-realist, may be stumbling into that reality.
Read more in The Hill.
The People Who Brought You Bill Clinton Want to Introduce You to the ‘Colorado Way’
“We tried moving to the left under Biden. … It really helped shrink the party’s appeal,” PPI president and founder Will Marshall told me a few days after the retreat. “What will work in a deep blue district is one thing. What will work in swing states and swing districts is something else altogether.”
PPI’s own polling and focus groups with non-college voters over the last three years showed a more moderate or even conservative outlook on issues like immigration or policing, Marshall explained. That’s why they went to Denver: Marshall and others at PPI believe the key to the party’s future success is to be found in the unique combination of libertarian ideals, progressive programs and pocketbook-focused governance that has become a hallmark of western liberalism. The pragmatic approach, they say, reflects the growing number of unaffiliated voters in the country.
PPI’s plan to take the strategy sessions national has a compelling pedigree: After Democrats’ dismal 1988 election showing — when George H. W. Bush beat Democrat Michael Dukakis with nearly 80 percent of the electoral college vote — PPI went to the American South looking for answers. Marshall and other PPI strategists held similar sessions that grew into the bones of the influential New Democratic movement. Involved in those strategic discussions was a little-known governor named Bill Clinton.
Read more in Politico.
Passage of ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Renders Republican Deficit Hawks Extinct
Republicans have sent their “One Big Beautiful Bill” to President Trump’s desk and it’s hard to overstate the consequences. Not only will the bill be one of the most regressive transfers of wealth from society’s poorest to its richest in recent memory, but it will also add trillions of dollars to our national debt and hurt our economy. By passing this obscene budget-busting bill with near-unanimous support from their members in Congress, Republicans have proven that their party’s deficit hawks have gone extinct.
According to analysis from the Yale Budget Lab, the bill’s deep cuts to safety-net programs such as SNAP and Medicaid will reduce annual incomes for the bottom 20% of Americans by roughly $700 per person. But the savings from these cuts won’t be used to pay down the national debt or improve the programs for the people who need them most — rather, they will help offset tax cuts that will increase average after-tax incomes for individuals in the top 1% by roughly $30,000. The bill also guts pro-growth investments in the clean energy transition while propping up coal production and other conservative special interests with new giveaways, such as expansive new aid for wealthy farmers and large tax deductions for whaling boats.
Despite the bill’s large cuts, it would add roughly $4.1 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years. Moreover, if ostensibly “temporary” policies in the bill are eventually made permanent without offset — as Republicans have made clear they had no trouble doing when writing this bill— the cost would swell to $5.5 trillion, making it more expensive than every COVID stimulus bill combined. This is not only the most expensive bill ever passed using the filibuster-proof reconciliation process, it is also the first one to permanently increase budget deficits outside the 10-year window. This unprecedented outcome was only possible because Senate Republicans effectively invoked the “nuclear option” to blow up budget enforcement mechanisms, which will open the floodgates for future Congresses to add trillions more to the national debt with barebones majorities.
The explosion of federal debt will have lasting consequences for Americans. In the short term, deficit spending by the federal government will increase by up to $632 billion in a single year, putting upward pressure on inflation rates that have remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Increased government borrowing will also put upward pressure on already elevated interest rates, making everything from mortgages to car loans more expensive for ordinary families. Over the long term, higher rates will make it more expensive for businesses to finance new investments, slowing innovation and job creation. The federal government already spends roughly a trillion dollars each year on interest payments – more than it spends on national defense or Medicare. Now those costs will grow even faster, putting them on track to rival Social Security as the single-largest line item in the federal budget within 20 years. Instead of being used to fund investments in America’s future, taxpayer dollars will be almost exclusively used to pay for previous obligations.
Perhaps what is most remarkable is that this massive assault on our country’s fiscal integrity was only made possible by the people pretending to be its loudest defenders. For years, self-identified “deficit hawks” in the House GOP conference repeatedly called the deficit an “existential threat.” And even though they relied on completely fake growth assumptions to argue that $2.5 trillion of tax cuts would pay for themselves, these representatives insisted they would not support legislation that included any additional tax cuts without offset. They went so far as to get a commitment from House Speaker Mike Johnson that he would step down if he passed a bill that crossed this red line. Yet when the Senate sent them a bill that blatantly violated their agreement, these “fiscal hawks” quickly folded under pressure and rubber-stamped it.
Compare that to what happened just four years ago under the Biden administration. President Biden’s full “Build Back Better” agenda, while no model of fiscal responsibility, would have added less than $3 trillion to budget deficits over the first 10 years if it had been permanently enacted. Even though they used budget gimmicks to do it, Democratic deficit hawks in the House ensured the reconciliation bill advancing this agenda was scored as roughly deficit-neutral under traditional accounting. And when Democratic deficit hawks in the Senate forced party leaders to strip out those gimmicks, the bill eventually became something that actually reduced deficits. While deficit hawks may be endangered within the Congressional Democratic Party, today it is clear they are functionally extinct on the Republican side.
Deeper Dive:
- Budget Breakdown, by PPI’s Center for Funding America’s Future
- How Trump’s BBB is Shaping Up to Be an Even Bigger Mess Than Biden’s, by Ben Ritz
- Senate Changes to House Reconciliation Bill Are a Mixed Bag, by Ben Ritz and Nate Morris
- The Senate OBBBA in Charts, by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
- Senate Republicans Go Nuclear to Blow Up the National Debt, by Ben Ritz
- The National Debt Is Already Causing Bigger Problems Than People Realize, by The New York Times Editorial Board
- We Both Served as Treasury Secretary. We Know This Bill Is Dangerous, by Robert E. Rubin and Lawrence H. Summers
Fiscal Fact:
As President Trump’s chaotic and destructive economic policies have shaken investor confidence in the first half of 2025, the U.S. dollar has lost over 10% of its value relative to foreign currencies — the worst such decline in more than 50 years. A weaker dollar results in more expensive imports, lower spending power when traveling internationally, and higher borrowing costs for both the American people and their government.
Other Fiscal News:
- Trump Administration Lowers Expectations for Trade Deals as Tariff Deadline Approaches, by Time
- US, Canada to Resume Trade Talks After Ottawa Drops Digital Tax, by Reuters
- Donald Trump’s Fiscal Policy and Fed Attacks Imperil US Haven Status, Say Economists, by Financial Times
- The Problematic Politics of Trump’s Bill: More Lower-Income Americans Are Voting GOP, by The Wall Street Journal
- House Appropriators Slam DHS for ‘Egregious’ ICE Overspending, by Federal News Network
More from PPI and the Center for Funding America’s Future:
- GOP’s “Big Beautiful Bill” Would Undermine Economic Stability, by Ben Ritz, Alex Kilander, and Nate Morris
- “Trump Accounts” Are a Promising Start, But Flaws Remain, by Alex Kilander
- PPI Announces Group to Strengthen American Identity, by Richard D. Kahlenberg, feat. Larry Summers and David Brooks
- How Democrats Lost Sight of Obama’s Vision of National Identity, by Ian Reifowitz
- The U.S. Needs 8,000 Tons of Cobalt a Year, and Produces 300 Tons, by Ed Gresser

